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Lightning vs Panthers Game 4 Odds, Props & Predictions (Apr. 28)

Chris Amberley

By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey

Published:


Brayden Point battles in front of the Panthers net.
Apr 26, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Brayden Point (21) controls the puck in front of Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (72) in the second period during game three of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
  • The Panthers are -142 moneyline favorites over the Lightning in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series
  • Florida leads the best-of-seven series 2-1, after losing Game 3 at home
  • See the Lightning vs Panthers Game 4 odds below, plus prop picks and predictions

It’s a shame the Battle of Florida is taking place in the first round. This series has a championship level intensity to it, with blood boiling over in each of the past two games. Tampa Bay took Game 3 to cut the Panthers lead to 2-1 in the NHL playoff bracket, but online sportsbooks are expecting Florida to bounce back in Game 4 tonight.

Puck drop is scheduled for 7 pm ET, from Amerant Bank Arena, in Sunrise, FL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Odds

Bet TypeLightningPanthers
Puck Line+1.5 (-225)-1.5 (+185)
TotalO 5.5 (-110)U 5.5 (-110)
Moneyline+120-142

The Panthers are -142 moneyline favorites and are laying 1.5 goals on the puck line at +185 odds. The Lightning come back as +120 underdogs, with the total sitting at 5.5 goals.

Per the NHL public betting trends, the visiting team has won all three matchups so far, but that’s a trend I’m expecting to change in Game 4.

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Lightning vs Panthers Predictions

  • Florida Panthers Moneyline (-142)

My prediction is that Florida holds serve at home tonight. The Panthers were the much better team in Game 3, but got an underwhelming effort from Sergei Bobrovsky. Florida’s netminder allowed 4 goals on 17 shots, after yielding only two goals total on 41 shots in Games 1 and 2.

The Lightning wound up scoring five times on Saturday, but produced an expected goals total of just 1.25. Tampa Bay generated only 7 high danger scoring chances compared to the Panthers 17, but Andrei Vasilevskiy stood on his head in the Lightning net.

Florida dominated puck possession in Game 3 as well, but couldn’t solve Vasilevskiy more than once. Yes, few active goalies have a playoff resume as decorated as Vasilevskiy’s, but this Panthers roster is simply too good offensively to be shut down in consecutive games.

Lightning vs Panthers Advanced Stats (Playoffs)

53.94CF%46.06
7.24xGF8.91
8.91xGA7.24
34HDCF36

10 Florida skaters lit the lamp 10+ times this season, led by Sam Reinhart’s 39. Five of those players notched 20+ goals, and that kind of depth is why they’re a top-two favorite in the Stanley Cup odds.

There’s no shortage of firepower on the Lightning either, but the Panthers out performed Tampa Bay in expected goals for and high danger chances during the regular season, and that’s carried over to the playoffs as well. Give me Florida on the moneyline tonight at -142 odds.

Lightning vs Panthers Player Props

Skaters1+ GoalsO/U Shots1+ Points1+ Assists
Jake Guentzel (TB)+1802.5 (+100o/-130u)-165+145
Sam Reinhart (FLA)+1602.5 (-120o/-110u)-180+130
Brayden Point (TB)+1752.5 (+140o/-182u)-150+150
Brandon Hagel (TB)+2401.5 (-154o/+120u)-105+175
Nikita Kucherov (TB)+1852.5 (-135o/+105u)-320-175
Matthew Tkachuk (FLA)+1902.5 (-142o/+110u)-175+115
Carter Vergaeghe (FLA)+2902.5 (+105o/-135u)+105+190
Sam Bennett (FLA)+3002.5 (+115o/-148u)+110+205
Aleksander Barkov (FLA)+2601.5 (-168o/+130u)-165+115
Brad Marchand (FLA)+3301.5 (-182o/+140u)+125+230
Nicholas Paul (TB)+4501.5 (-120o/-110u)+160+310
Anthony Cirelli (TB)+3501.5 (+115o/-148u)+130+250
Evan Rodrigues (FLA)+450OFFOFFOFF
Gage Gonclaves (TB)+420OFFOFFOFF
Anton Lundell (FLA)+3901.5 (-120o/-110u)+145+250
Aaron Ekblad (FLA)+7501.5 (-148o/+115u)+125+155
Victor Hedman (TB)+6001.5 (-198o/+150u)-110+120

NHL Player Prop odds as of April 27 at FanDuel and DraftKings.

  • Sam Bennett 1+ Points (+110 at DraftKings)

Switching over to NHL props market, where I’m betting on Sam Bennett to get back on the scoresheet for the fourth straight contest. Bennett leads Florida in shots on goal and expected goals through three games, and is tied for the team lead in chances created.

As a top-six forward, he logs additional time on the powerplay and PK, giving him more opportunities to rack up points. He’s averaged 0.79 points per game over the Panthers last three postseason runs, making his +110 odds to record a point tonight a great value.

Chris Amberley
Chris Amberley

Sports Writer

As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.

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