Leafs vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Starting Goalies (Friday, Feb. 28)

• The Toronto Maple Leafs (36-20-2) visit the New York Rangers (29-25-4) on Friday, February 28, 2025
• The NHL odds have the Maple Leafs as slight road favorites at -120 on the moneyline, with the total set at 6 goals
• Read below for our Maple Leafs vs Rangers prediction and best bets for Friday night hockey at Madison Square Garden

An Original Six matchup is on tap Friday night as the Toronto Maple Leafs (36-20-2) head to the Big Apple to face the New York Rangers (29-25-4) at Madison Square Garden. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on the NHL Network.

The NHL betting odds have the Maple Leafs as slight -120 road favorites, with the Rangers at +100 on the moneyline. The total is set at 6 goals, juiced to the over at -118.

Let’s dive into the matchup in our Maple Leafs vs Rangers prediction and determine the best bets for Friday night.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers Prediction

While the Rangers took the first meeting 4-1 in Toronto back in October, I’m backing the Maple Leafs on the moneyline (-120) to get revenge at MSG. The Leafs enter on a three-game winning streak in which their offense has caught fire, scoring 5+ goals in each victory.

Goaltending is also trending in Toronto’s favor. Likely Leafs starter Anthony Stolarz (12-5-2, 2.22 GAA, .925 SV%) has been solid all year, while Rangers No. 1 Igor Shesterkin (20-20-2, 2.93 GAA, .905 SV%) has struggled with consistency. Shesterkin is coming off a stellar 36-save performance vs. the Islanders but had allowed 5+ goals in two of his previous three starts.

The Leafs’ advantage grows when you look at the season-long numbers against the spread. Toronto is 31-27 ATS overall and 15-12 ATS on the road, while New York is just 23-35 ATS overall and a dismal 9-19 ATS at home. The Rangers are also allowing a whopping 3.10 goals per game, which doesn’t bode well against a potent Leafs attack.

Auston Matthews (48 points in 58 games) is heating up with goals in back-to-back contests and has torched the Rangers for 8 points in their last 4 meetings. Look for him to keep rolling alongside linemates Mitch Marner (73 points) and John Tavares (49 points). William Nylander (58 points) provides a dangerous secondary threat.

The Rangers will be without top defenseman Adam Fox and could also miss Chris Kreider up front. Even if Shesterkin stands on his head, I don’t think New York will generate enough offense to keep up with Toronto’s firepower. The Leafs are 4-2 in the last 6 head-to-head meetings.

At a reasonable -120 price, back the Maple Leafs to make a statement on the road and come away with an important two points. Toronto is the better team on paper and I expect that to translate onto the ice at MSG. Give me the Leafs to win a high-scoring affair.

• Friday NHL Pick: Maple Leafs Moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)

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Maple Leafs vs Rangers Odds

The Maple Leafs are listed as slight road favorites at -120 on the moneyline, while the Rangers are +100 home underdogs. Toronto is +195 to cover the -1.5 puck line and win by 2+ goals, whereas New York is -235 to stay within the +1.5 puck line in a loss or win outright.

The total is set at 6 goals, with the Over juiced to -118 and the Under at -102. That indicates some lean towards a higher-scoring game, which makes sense given Toronto’s offensive form and the Rangers’ defensive struggles.

If you like the Leafs to win a one-goal game (the most common outcome in the NHL), you can get +320 odds on them prevailing by exactly one tally. The same wager for the Rangers is priced at +340.

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Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of February 28, 2025. Claim the BetMGM promo code and wager on Maple Leafs-Rangers.

Maple Leafs vs Rangers Starting Goalies

Toronto Maple Leafs: Anthony Stolarz (12-5-2, 2.22 GAA, .925 SV%)
Stolarz allowed 4 goals on 36 shots in an overtime win in his last outing but has been very reliable for the Leafs all season long. He’s won 3 of his last 4 starts overall with a stellar .926 SV% in that stretch. Stolarz is a perfect 6-0 on the road since January 16.

New York Rangers: Igor Shesterkin (20-20-2, 2.93 GAA, .905 SV%)
Shesterkin stopped 36 of 37 shots in a massive bounce-back performance against the Islanders last time out. However, he’s been maddeningly inconsistent this year and is just 3-3-0 with an .881 SV% in 6 February starts. Shesterkin is 6-2-2 with a 2.48 GAA in 10 career games against Toronto.