Islanders’ Seven-Game Win Streak Leads to Massive Leap in Metro Division Odds (+680 to +350)

• The New York Islanders have won seven straight games
• The Isles are a perfect 8-0-0 when they score three goals or more
• Yet New York is second-last in terms of five-on-five puck possession this season

The New York Islanders started the season with three losses in their first four games. Since then, they have put together a seven-game winning streak and have seen their odds to win the Metropolitan Division get much shorter.

Are they worth a look in the NHL division odds or is this just a brief spurt for a squad that’s destined to be a bridesmaid, just like last year?

2020 Metro Division Odds

Odds last updated Oct. 29, 2019.

Islanders Have Come To Life

While it was tough sledding for the Isles early on, they’ve been on fire since the middle of October. The main difference in their turnaround has been their offense. They’ve scored at least three goals in each of their seven victories, allowing two or fewer in six of those games. That math adds up to a lot of wins.

When you take a look at their season as a whole, the Isles are now a perfect 8-0-0 when scoring three goals or more and are 0-3-0 when they don’t. One of the big keys to their success has been the play of center Mathew Barzal.

The 22-year-old has been phenomenal of late, picked up eight points over his last seven games. He’s had good support too as Derick Brassard has scored in three straight games while captain Anders Lee picked up his first multipoint game of the season in the team’s latest outing, a 5-3 win over the Flyers.

Can They Keep This Up?

The offense is really the key to this team’s success as under Barry Trotz; they have established themselves as a reliable defensive team, as Trotz-coached teams always do. They haven’t felt the loss of starting goalie Robin Lehner. Both Semyon Varlamov and Thomas Greiss have save percentages at .918 or better.

What’s interesting is that the offense could actually improve if New York boosts its puck possession numbers. They have a 44.9% Corsi-For at five-on-five, which is the second-worst in the NHL. The only team that’s worse is the New York Rangers.

Typically, teams who possess the puck less are supposed to win less. But remember that the Isles were 27th in this category last season and bucked the trend. Only them and the Dallas Stars made the playoffs while finishing in the bottom half of teams in this category last season.

If the Isles stay at that 44.9% number some regression is likely; but if they improve it by a few percent, it’s clear that their defensively-sound style of play will give them a good chance to win most nights.

What’s The Best Bet?

The Metropolitan Division is a complete toss-up with a number of teams in and around the same range. I lump teams like the Washington Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins and Islanders together.

If you’re looking for some value, the Pens offer it at +600. Despite the departure of Phil Kessel and an injury to Evgeni Malkin, they are top-ten in Corsi %, fifth in Expected Goals For, and tenth in High Danger Chances %. That’s a recipe for sustained success.