Islanders vs Flyers Game 5 Odds & Picks – Sep. 1

• Despite the Flyers’ best start-to-finish effort, the Islanders won Game 4 by a 3-2 score
• Brock Nelson scored twice to give the Islanders a 3-1 series lead
• Game 5 will be played Tuesday at 7:00 pm EST; we examine the odds and give our pick

The Flyers did almost everything right in Game 4 against the Islanders, and it didn’t matter.

In a series where they’ve struggled to create offense, they out-shot New York 39-32. But it was the Islanders who won 3-2, taking a 3-1 stranglehold on the series.

Now Philly has their backs against the wall. It’s win or go home on Tuesday night in Toronto.

Islanders vs Flyers: Game 5 Odds

Odds as of Aug 30th.

When the series opened, the Flyers were heavily favored. They were listed at -124 to win Game 1, and oddsmakers had them as series favorites.

Since then, the Islanders vs Flyers odds have shifted dramatically in favor of the Isles. While Game 5 currently sits as a pick’em, likely because of Philly’s offensive explosion, the Islanders are at -1250 to win the series.

Flyers’ Offense Wakes Up, But Still Locked Down

Throughout each game of this series, we’ve been critical of the Flyers’ offense. Heading into Game 5, Philly had dominated the Islanders for just two periods and a three-minute overtime in Game 2.

But in Game 5 they threw everything they could at the Thomas Greiss and the Islanders and it still didn’t work.

Flyers’ 5v5 Offensive Comparison

The Flyers had yet to top the Islanders in scoring chances or high-danger chances in the series at 5v5. They did both in Game 4, finishing with advantages of 35-26 and 13-10 respectively.

Can’t make any real run without the goalie stealing a game or two…

Final #Isles 5v5 Metrics via NST

37.89% Attempts
41.70% High Danger
39.29% Expected Goals

BUT THOMAS GREISS Y’ALL pic.twitter.com/8vWVCMqrNt

— habes (@habermetrics) August 31, 2020

Philly also dominated possession all game long, which is something else they haven’t done. After the teams went 50/50 on their CorsiFor% in the first period, the Flyers posted a 70.49% in the second and 52.27% in the third.

And yet the Islanders stood firm.

Can Flyers’ Big Guns Carry it Over to Game 5?

Our criticism of the Flyers’ forwards has been pretty steady, but it reached new heights in our Game 4 preview.

Flyers are the sixers on ice: Turnovers by the dozen, way too much effort to score on offense, stars not living up to potential

— Greg Otto (@gregotto) August 31, 2020

Kevin Hayes, who had typically been spared in this space, fell in line with the other under-performers. But they all showed up in Game 5.

They just couldn’t solve Thomas Greiss.

Shot Comparison: Flyers Forwards

Unsurprisingly, Couturier, Hayes and Voracek’s previous series highs came in Game 2. The 16 shots the five combined for were their highest single-game output of the series.

Couturier has been quiet since the round robin, but his goal was his second of the playoffs, with both coming against the Islanders. Hayes was able to add an assist.

None of this series can be blamed on goaltending, either.

The Flyer's inability to clear, and generate any sort of offense, has completely exposed this team.

— Booz (@BarstoolBooz) August 31, 2020

Konecny’s consistency has been comparable to Hayes’, he just doesn’t have as much to show for it. He had high-danger chances in each of the previous two games and had two in Game 4.

There were bright spots for the Flyers, but you have to wonder if it’s coming too late with the Islanders in control.

Islanders Just Need to Thwart Flyers’ Offense Once More

Over the past four periods, the Flyers have been playing like their season hangs in the balance. Now it really does.

They need to win each of their next three games if they want to move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. A daunting task considering they’ve lost six of seven meetings between these teams this season.

But we think they’ll come out firing in Game 5 an extend this series one more game. After that, who knows, but we’ll take a desperate Flyers’ squad on Tuesday night.

The Pick: Flyers (-108); OVER 5 (-117)