Capitals vs Islanders Game 3 Odds and Pick – Aug 16

• If the New York Islanders, leading 2-0 in the series, defeat the Washington Capitals Sunday (Noon, ET), they become overwhelming favorites to win the best-of-seven series. Only four NHL teams have come back from a 3-0 deficit to win.
• The Islanders’ stingy defense has given up two or fewer goals in five of their six playoff games.
• See the odds and betting analysis in the story below

The New York Islanders take a 2-0 lead into Sunday’s Game 3 (Noon ET) against the Washington Capitals, and history says they are in charge of this playoff series.

Since the seven-game series was introduced, 86% of teams that hold a 2-0 series lead have gone on to win the series. Oddsmakers are heading in that direction as well. The Islanders have gone from being +115 underdog to even money with these NFL lines.

NY Islanders vs Washington Capitals Game 3 Odds

*Odds taken August 15

The story going into the series was how coach Barry Trotz’s strong defensive scheme would slow down the Alex Ovechkin-led Capitals’ offense. But an equally important story has been how the below-average Islanders’ offense has scored nine goals in the first two games against Washington.

After ranking 22nd with a 2.78 goals per game scoring average in the regular-season, the Islanders rank third thus far in the playoffs with a 3.67 scoring average.

The Islanders’ offense has come through in waves so far in the postseason #Isles
READ MORE: https://t.co/nEgwOToni5

— Empire Sports Media (@EmpireSportsMed) August 13, 2020

Capitals Desperately Need Nicklas Backstrom

Most teams experience offensive struggles when their top center is on the shelf with an injury and the Capitals are no exception. With Nicklas Backstrom out of the lineup in Game 2, the Capitals only managed 25 shots on goal against the Islanders. Backstrom is the team’s most gifted playmaker.

Backstrom is in concussion protocol as a result of being walloped by a heavy check from Anders Lee in Game 1. The Capitals said the Lee hit was “predatory.”  There’s no definite timetable for a player in concussion protocol, but the Capitals have some hope Backstrom could play Game 3.

Players in protocol must show they can be symptom free after exercising before returning to the lineup.

Well, "hopeful" is better than the alternative right? Backstrom's status remains uncertain. https://t.co/3KpRolqHj4

— NBC Sports Washington (@NBCSWashington) August 15, 2020

Ensemble Cast Feeding Islanders’ Offense

When you analyze why the Islanders are scoring more in the playoffs, you will soon realize that it’s not the usual suspects leading the way.

The Islanders are scoring more because everyone is in on the act. Including the play-in round, 11 different Islanders have scored in their first six playoff games. The Islanders’ top point producer isn’t Mathew Barzal or Anders Lee or even Brock Nelson. It’s Anthony Beauvillier and Josh Bailey with seven points each in six games.

Anthony Beauvillier has been the #Isles best forward so far this postseason. He’s found another level to his game.https://t.co/Ah7SJOCmqd

— Rob Taub (@RTaub_) August 6, 2020

Beauvillier had 18 goals in the regular-season, and now he is producing like a 50-goal scorer.

This is what you get when the Islanders’ strong defensive game is performing at an elite level. The Islanders bottle up the opposition, create turnovers and then  end up with scoring up and down their lineup.  Their defensive game helps Beauvillier score like he is David Pastrnak.

The Islanders are playing the way they want to play against the Capitals.

Braden Holtby vs Semyon Varlamov

The Islanders have won the goaltending battle in the first two games of this series. Islanders goalie Varlamov has stopped 47 of 51 shots for a .921 save percentage. He’s made big saves at key moments.

Brent Johnson calls for rookie Vitek Vanecek to replace Braden Holtby in … #Capitals https://t.co/KKSVZxYbDr pic.twitter.com/JS6Y2oYKwL

— Capitals Report (@capitals_fanly) August 15, 2020

Meanwhile, Holtby, with a Stanley Cup championship on his resume, hasn’t been sharp. He has given up eight goals while posting an .862 save percentage against the Islanders. Counting the round robin games, he has an .899 save percentage.  His career playoff save percentage is .926.

With Ilya Samsonov on the injured list, the Capitals don’t have a proven alternative to Holtby.  The Capitals’ backup goalie is Vitek Vanecek and he has never even played an NHL regular-season game.

The Bottom Line

Perhaps Backstrom  could give the Capitals a lift, but his presence isn’t going to help the Capitals figure out how to prevent the Islanders from scoring.

The Islanders are playing at very high level and the Capitals don’t seem close to finding the game that allowed them to win the Stanley Cup in 2018.

Game 3 pick: Islanders (EVEN)