Capitals vs Rangers Predictions, Odds & Ovechkin Props (Mar. 5)
By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Updated: March 8, 2025 at 5:08 pm ESTPublished:
- The Capitals are -118 moneyline favorites on the road versus the Rangers on Wednesday night
- Alex Ovechkin is 11 goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record
- See the Capitals vs Rangers prediction, odds and Ovechkin props below
It’s no longer a matter of if Alex Ovechkin will break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record. It’s a matter of when. The Great Eight’s historic chase continues Wednesday, as his Capitals visit the Rangers as road chalk in the NHL odds.
Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at Madison Square Garden, with truTV providing the broadcast coverage.
Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers Odds
The Capitals are currently -118 moneyline favorites, in a game with a total of 5.5. Washington is +215 to cover the 1.5 goal puck line, something they’ve accomplished twice versus New York already this season.
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Odds as of March 5 at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.
Ovechkin Closing in on History
Ovechkin was stymied in Washington’s last outing, a 5-4 overtime win over Ottawa. Ovy had a glorious chance from his patented left wing spot early on, but Linus Ullmark took away a sure goal with a brilliant save.
The Great Eight was held off the scoreboard despite registering five shots on goal. He’s scored five times in six games coming off the 4 Nations break, averaging five shots on net per night. Ovechkin’s in the midst of the most efficient shooting season of his career, and if this pace continues the record could come even sooner than expected.
As it stands, he’s on a 0.69 goals per game pace in 2024-25. He needs 11 goals to break the record, which means the target date would be 16 games from now. That lines up with a Sunday afternoon date with the Islanders on April 6th, a team he’s scored 44 times on during his NHL tenure.
Capitals vs Rangers Prediction
- Over 5.5 (-130) at Caesars
Shifting to the matchup on Wednesday, the Capitals enter play first in goals for, and top-five in goals against. They’re a top-six contender in the Stanley Cup odds, and the number one seed in the East.
The Rangers meanwhile, are making a late season playoff push. They’re 7-3 in their last 10, and are right on the Wild Card bubble. New York ranks middle of the pack in goals for and against, with the ladder stat being a surprise given their goaltending situation.
Perennial Vezina odds contender Igor Shesterkin has had an underwhelming season. He’s outside the top-18 in goals against and save percentage, but has showed signs of life lately. Shesterkin is fresh off his fourth shutout of the season, while New York has gone two straight games without conceding a goal.
Before we get too excited about the Rangers newfound suffocating defense, it’s important to note the opposition. They blanked the Islanders and Predators, two teams outside of the playoff race.
New York’s offense has also seen a bump in production, scoring at least four times in four of its past five games. J.T. Miller is riding a six-game point streak, while Artemi Panarin is 21st in the NHL scoring race.
The Rangers have actually underperformed offensively based on advanced metrics. They rank ninth in expected goals, only two spots behind Washington. The issue is in their own end. Only the Ducks allow more high-danger scoring chances than New York. If there’s one team you can’t afford to give quality opportunities, it’s Ovechkin’s Capitals.
That’s why I’m making over 5.5 goals as my best bet for this matchup. These two teams have met twice this season, with Washington producing 5-3 and 7-4 victories. The Capitals lit up both Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick, with Shesterkin expected to start tonight.
Washington’s defensive prowess has taken a step back, allowing at least three goals in 11 straight. The Rangers new found life has me confident they can punch back, while their shaky back end should lead to plenty of quality chances for the Caps.
Alex Ovechkin Props
NHL Player Prop odds as of March 5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Back to Ovechkin, who’s the main event in the NHL player props market. I’m betting he exceeds his shot total and lights the lamp. He’s got 45 career goals versus the Rangers, tied for fourth most versus any team in the league.
He’s taking more shots over the last month than at any point this season, and as mentioned, he’s been ultra efficient with his opportunities. Ovechkin has a personal best 18.1% shooting percentage this season. That’s 5% higher than his career average, and a seven percent increase over 2023-24.
Alex Ovechkin props: Over 3.5 Shots (-120), 1+ Goals (+125)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
