Red Hot Capitals Still Given +1500 Odds to Win Stanley Cup

By Bryan Thiel in NHL Hockey
Updated: March 26, 2020 at 3:27 pm EDTPublished:

- The Washington Capitals are the reigning Stanley Cup champions and lead the Metropolitan Division by two points
- The Caps have just the ninth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup
- Is Washington worth it? Or is there a wiser investment elsewhere?
When it comes to the Washington Capitals, who wouldn’t want to revisit the “Summer of Ovie”?
Seriously, after last summer’s three month party, everyone should love the fact Washington is 14-5-1 since February 1st. Those 29 points have them two up on the Islanders in the Metropolitan Division.
But they still aren’t getting any Stanley Cup love.
2019 Stanley Cup Odds
Team | Stanley Cup Odds |
---|---|
Tampa Bay Lightning | +300 |
San Jose Sharks | +820 |
Boston Bruins | +1000 |
Calgary Flames | +1000 |
Toronto Maple Leafs | +1100 |
Winnipeg Jets | +1100 |
Vegas Golden Knights | +1300 |
Nashville Predators | +1400 |
Washington Capitals | +1500 |
St. Louis Blues | +1900 |
*Odds taken 03/13/19
The Caps have risen up the odds thanks to their hot play. They’ve gone from +2000 on February 26th, to the +1500 they sit at. It’s the highest they’ve been since January 8th.
Despite the swing, however, Washington still sits just ninth among the top ten in our 2019 Stanley Cup Odds Tracker.
Does it mean you should ignore them?
Capitals a Boom or Bust Stanley Cup Pick
You definitely shouldn’t ignore them. In fact, if things fall the right way, they could be one of the savvier picks.
But they could also fall flat on their face.
As the Metro Division postseason race heats up, #ALLCAPS are using these final regular season games as a chance to learn pic.twitter.com/axbWgXDWdA
— x – Washington Capitals (@Capitals) March 13, 2019
The key is winning the Metro division. If everything stayed the same over the last month of the NHL season, here’s Washington’s path to the Eastern Conference Final.
Washington’s Path to the 2019 Eastern Conference Final
Round | Prospective Opponent | Current Points | Seeding | Goal Differential | PP% (NHL Rank) | PK% (NHL Rank) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Conference QF | vs Carolina Hurricanes | 83 | 1st WC | 17 | 17.4% (15th) | 81.9% (7th) |
Eastern Conference SF | vs New York Islanders | 87 | 2nd Metro | 32 | 15.2% (27th) | 81.0% (10th) |
Eastern Conference Final | @ Tampa Bay Lightning | 110 | 1st Atlantic | 89 | 28.5% (1st) | 85.6% (1st) |
For simplicity’s sake, this is assuming the highest seed in each prospective match-up wins.
With some tweaking, however, Washington’s path becomes harder.
Washington’s Worst Case Scenario Playoff Path
Round | Projected Opponent | Current Points | Projected Seeding | Goal Differential | PP% (NHL Rank) | PK% (NHL Rank) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Conference QF | @ Pittsburgh Penguins | 85 | 2nd Metro | 17 | 25.3% (15th) | 80.2% (18th) |
Eastern Conference SF | @ New York Islanders | 87 | 1st Metro | 32 | 15.2% (27th) | 81.0% (10th) |
Eastern Conference Final | @ Tampa Bay Lightning | 110 | 1st Atlantic | 89 | 28.5% (1st) | 85.6% (1st) |
If the Penguins hold onto third in the Metro and the Caps fall to second, they’ll square off in round one. While that could happen, the teams are separated by just four points.
There’s a chance the Caps fall to third with the Pens jumping them for second and the Islanders winning the division.
Do you want to see the @penguins and @Capitals meet in the first round? #NHLNow pic.twitter.com/12iqtBiwnA
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) March 10, 2019
That gives Pittsburgh home ice in round one. Wherever they are, those series are never easy. Granted, there is one oddity about Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby meeting in the playoffs.
Capitals vs Penguins Playoff Results
Playoff Season | Round | Winner | Playoff Result |
---|---|---|---|
2009 | Eastern Conference SF | Penguins (4-3) | Won Stanley Cup |
2016 | Eastern Conference SF | Penguins (4-2) | Won Stanley Cup |
2017 | Eastern Conference SF | Penguins (4-3) | Won Stanley Cup |
2018 | Eastern Conference SF | Capitals (4-2) | Won Stanley Cup |
That’s right. The winner has always gone on to win the Stanley Cup.
Thing is, that has never happened in the first round. Even though they may have the better team, can the Caps run the gauntlet again after an early match-up with Pittsburgh?
It’s made even tougher because even if they get past the Pens, they’re on the road for the rest of the playoffs.
Capitals Remaining Schedule Determines their Fate
Washington is the hottest team in the NHL right now, but they will control their own destiny.
That’s because, of their 12 remaining games, they play the Lightning three times, the Hurricanes twice, and the Islanders once. They also have the Flyers twice and the Canadiens once.
Hottest #NHL teams: Last 10GP
Capitals 9-1-0
Bruins 8-1-1
Coyotes 8-2-0
Lightning 8-2-0
Hurricanes 7-2-1
Sharks 7-2-1
Maple Leafs 6-2-2
Oilers 6-2-2
Penguins 6-2-2
Wild 6-2-2 pic.twitter.com/XICfU2JBW4— The Hockey News (@TheHockeyNews) March 11, 2019
Despite all of that, the Caps are still a solid pick. Last year’s experience will be massive for them, and they’re playing their best hockey at the right time.
They also have the easier path coming out of the Metro division.
And if we can’t convince you on the Caps? Try the Predators and Jets. Even though they’ll have to go through each other, the Cup favorites provide great value in the West.

Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.