Odds a Canadian Team Wins the Stanley Cup Improve From +600 to +475
By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Updated: March 31, 2020 at 6:41 am EDTPublished:
- The odds a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup have been shortened to +475
- Only four Canadian teams currently occupy playoff spots
- No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since Montreal in 1993
Is this the year a Canadian team finally wins the Stanley Cup? The odds are certainly against that happening, but they’re not as long as they once were.
The price to bet that a Canadian team will hoist Lord Stanley’s mug in 2020 has improved from +600 to +475, so now is the time to consider if there are enough Canadian contenders to warrant making this wager.
Odds a Canadian Team Wins 2020 Stanley Cup
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +475 |
| No | -700 |
All odds taken Nov. 25
Only four Canadian clubs currently occupy playoff spots, and only two teams from the Great White North have 2020 Stanley Cup odds shorter than +2500. The Flames, Jets, Leafs and Senators all have a negative goal differential, and only the Oilers have a points percentage above .600.
The Cross Offs
You can poke holes in all seven of Canada’s NHL franchises, but two in particular don’t appear to stand a chance. A year after finishing as the Western Conference’s top seed, regression has smacked the Calgary Flames right across the face. They have just 11 wins in 26 games and are tied for the most goals allowed in the West.
The Calgary Flames winning the West last year seems like… pic.twitter.com/PtP4fALmzI
— Chris Conte (@ChrisConte79) November 18, 2019
The Ottawa Senators have actually exceeded nearly everyone’s extremely low expectations, but they lack the firepower to be truly taken seriously. The Sens have scored the third-fewest goals in the East and have the league’s worst power play. No one on the team has hit the 20-point plateau and just two of their skaters have reached double-digits in goals.
The Pretenders
Montreal started off hot, but they may have peaked too soon. The Canadiens have lost four straight (all to teams outside of the playoff picture) and now rank bottom-10 in both power play and penalty kill percentage. They rank seventh in goals above expectation, and have faced the easiest schedule in the Atlantic division so far. Negative regression seems likely to hit.
going to tell my kids these were the Montreal Canadiens pic.twitter.com/vPi7HryF6X
— Yahoo Sports Canada (@YahooCASports) November 24, 2019
Much like Montreal, the Vancouver Canucks are in a tailspin. They’ve lost eight of their past 11, and have been held to two or fewer goals in four of their past 13. The Canucks have been carried by their strong special-teams play, but have been unable to produce at even strength.
They rank 29th in even strength goals for, and have produced the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances. Playoff time is usually when the refs put away their whistles, so backing a team that relies so heavily on its power play to score seems like a risky proposition.
The Contenders
No current Canadian roster has more playoff experience than the Winnipeg Jets and they seem to have righted the ship after a rough start. The Jets have won eight of 11 and now sit just a point out of second in the Central division. They’re tied for the second-most wins in the West (14) and Connor Hellebuyck is top-5 in the NHL in save percentage. They’re certainly not a flawless team, but good goaltending and veteran leadership at leasts provides some optimism.
#GoJetsGo have turned around their season since the calendar flipped to November pic.twitter.com/suO3Cu92hr
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) November 20, 2019
Things are starting to look up for the Toronto Maple Leafs now that Sheldon Keefe is calling the shots, but their defensive issues still exist. They’ve allowed the third-most goals in the league and the most high-danger scoring chances. They rank bottom-10 in both special teams categories, and have just four regulation wins in their last 18.
Despite the defensive problems, this remains one of the best offenses in the NHL. They have four players with 30-goal upside, and if they can solidify their back end at the trade deadline, they’ll be a threat to make a deep playoff run.
What an absolutely filthy goal by Auston Matthews, what a shift. 2-1 Leafs. pic.twitter.com/w198l3uZxU
— Leafs ALL Day (@LeafsAllDayy) November 24, 2019
The Edmonton Oilers are the top seed in the Western Conference and feature the league’s two highest scorers. The problem is they don’t feature much else. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been involved on 55.2% and 56.4% of the Oilers’ goals this season, while no other player on the roster has exceeded 18 points.
Connor McDavid (@cmcdavid97) from Leon Draisaitl.
Anyone surprised? pic.twitter.com/L13w0L1xZA
— NHL (@NHL) November 24, 2019
If they’re going to end Canada’s 26-year Stanley Cup drought, they’ll need more production from their other three lines. You can overcome scoring imbalances in the regular season, but come playoff time when goals are harder to manufacturer, relying solely on one line is not a recipe for success.
The Verdict
The Montreal Canadiens were the last Canadian team to win the Cup in 1993, and no Canadian team has made the Stanley Cup Final since 2011. If you’re betting a Canadian team to win the Cup at +475, you’re assuming they have a better than 17.4% chance to do so, which seems awfully optimistic.
Only a few Canadian teams have a realistic shot at winning it all, and you’d be better off sprinkling a little bit on each of your favorite three or four at much longer odds than settling for this reduced price tag.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
