Canada vs Finland Prediction, Pick & Odds – 4 Nations (Monday, Feb. 17)

• Canada faces Finland in the 4 Nations Face-off on Monday afternoon
• The latest 4 Nations odds favor the red and white, with a finals berth at stake
• Read below for Canada vs Finland prediction, picks & odds for Feb. 17

Win and survive. That’s the motto for both Canada and Finland heading into their 4 Nations showdown on Monday. Both squads are coming off crushing defeats and need to win to keep their championship aspirations alive.

The 4 Nations odds for Monday price Canada as the strong favorites to win in regulation and set up a championship rematch with the Americans. The pesky Finns are notable moneyline underdogs, with the over/under listed at 6.5.

Here is our Canada vs Finland prediction, along with the latest Monday 4 Nations odds.

Canada vs Finland Prediction

• Under 6.5 Goals (-135 at Bet365)

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Oddsmakers are ready to crown Canada the winners of this one, setting them as massive favorites over the Finns. This would set up a highly anticipated rematch with USA in the Finals.

While I get why Canada is a heavy favorite, I’m a bit hesitant to lay the juice here. Goalie Jordan Binnington has posted a lackluster .896 save percentage in this tournament, allowing 0.54 goals saved above expected vs. USA.

Canada may opt to start Adin Hill, but even then, you are betting on a goalie who hasn’t started in over a week. The Finns, meanwhile, have pivoted to Kevin Lankinen in net. While he gave up 4 against Sweden, he’s been quite reliable for Vancouver with a .905 save percentage in 32 games played.

I’m looking to the Under in this game, with five of the last seven Finland-Canada games across tournaments coming under 5 total goals. Canada’s defense should also get a boost with Cale Makar expected to return from an illness that kept him out Saturday.

Finland’s top center, Aleksander Barkov, has experience matching up against Canada’s top gun, Connor McDavid. The perennial Selke contender will be the key to ensuring McDavid doesn’t have a breakout game. The reigning NHL MVP has been held to only one goal and one assist so far.

It’s risky betting on the Under in a game featuring explosive playmakers like McDavid and Sidney Crosby. However, elimination games tend to be tighter-checking, with both teams not wanting to take risks. The Americans held Canada to just a single goal, and the Finns did a good job bottling up USA’s offense through 2 periods, before the floodgates opened.

Canada vs Finland Odds

Canada enters as substantial -400 road favorites on the moneyline, meaning you’d need to risk $400 to win $100 if the Canadians emerge victorious. Finland sits as +320 underdogs, offering a potential $320 return on a $100 wager.

The puck line has Canada priced at -165 to cover the -1.5 goals and win by two or more. Finland is available at +145 to either win outright or lose by just one goal – a $100 bet would return $145 if successful.

The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the under favored at -135 and the over available at +115. The juice suggests oddsmakers expect a relatively tight, defensive contest despite Canada’s high-powered offense.

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Odds courtesy of Bet365 as of February 16, 2025. Bet on Canada-Finland with the Bet365 bonus code.

What’s at Stake

After falling to Team USA 3-1 in Montreal, Canada faces a must-win scenario in this elimination match at TD Garden. The formula is simple – Canada must defeat Finland in regulation to advance to Wednesday’s championship game and set up a potential rematch with the Americans.

As Connor McDavid put it: “It’s kind of like a Game 7. A lot of guys in this room have been in that situation before. Got to get a win.”

Finland finds themselves in the same do-or-die position after rebounding from a 6-1 loss to the U.S. with a 4-3 overtime victory against Sweden.

Despite missing key defensemen Miro Heiskanen and Rasmus Ristolainen, the Finns have shown resilience with Lankinen stepping up in net after replacing Juuse Saros. Like Canada, they’ll need a regulation win to keep their championship hopes alive.