Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars Game 5 Odds and Pick – Aug 18

• Alexander Radulov scored the OT winner for the Stars to tie the series 2-2
  
• Joe Pavelski netted a hat-trick, including the game-tying goal
  
• Read below for a preview and betting prediction for the game

It was wild, it was crazy, but the Dallas Stars tied the series.

There were four lead changes on Sunday afternoon between the Stars and Flames. And following a disallowed goal two minutes before, the Stars were able to tie the game with just 12 seconds to go.

Now, in a series that was a pick’em from the start, it’s a best of three.

Flames vs Stars Game 5 Odds

Odds as of Aug. 16th.

The Stars continue to cement their status as favorites the longer this series goes.

In our Game 4 preview, the Stars were at -122, up from -109. In that same time, the Flames have slipped back from -107.

Things continue to shift in the Stars vs Flames series odds. Calgary had gone ahead after Game 3, but it’s Dallas who has now pulled significantly ahead.

Stars Offense Continues to Dominate Flames

Cam Talbot did all he could to steal Game 4 the same way he did Game 3.

After a 35-save shutout, Talbot faced 64 shots in Game 4, stopping 59 of them. The ice was tilted in the Stars’ favor, which is a trend that has continued the past three games.

Stars Game 4 Possession Numbers

Going back to our Game 4 preview, we looked at how the Stars have steadily been dominating the Flames.

Calgary was out-shot in each of the final three periods, including 12-5 in overtime. They never hit double-digits in scoring chances, while the Stars lapped them multiple times in high-danger chances. The two were equal in the first with five apiece, but Dallas racked up a 20-6 advantage.

In the series, at 5v5 the Stars have
58.2% of shot attempts
58.0% of shots on goal
65.4% of expected goals
65.7% of scoring chances

Cam Talbot and special teams are the only reasons Calgary is even in this series.

— Matthew DeFranks (@MDeFranks) August 16, 2020

Dallas’ expected goals-for had been climbing, and the Flames’ Corsi and Fenwick percentages were in the 30s for Games 2 and 3. If it wasn’t for Talbot in Game 3, this series could easily be 3-1 Stars.

Joe Pavelski led Dallas with eight shots, while John Klingberg, Alex Radulov and Roope Hintz had six each.

Dallas’ Dynamic Blueline Duo

After a quiet Game 1, Tyler Seguin emerged from the shadows and re-asserted himself as one of the NHL’s top players.

But while he’s been great, his performance isn’t the real reason why the Stars have made it back to this point. It starts, and ends, with their elite blueliners.

John Klingberg/Miro Heiskanen vs Flames

At 21, Heiskanen has the higher ceiling of the two, and is using the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs to display his two-way game. But Klingberg has been just as effective.

Three games in about 65 hours. Here were the TOI leaders (including both teams).

Heiskanen – 87:06
Klingberg – 78:59
Lindell – 77:03

Impressive stuff.

— Josh Bogorad (@JoshBogorad) August 16, 2020

When the series started, we identified the Stars defense as a strength. We also figured they’d be able to keep Calgary’s top line at bay. And while Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan woke up in Game 4, Dallas has largely done a good job at that.

Having John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen on the same d-core is not fair. #GoStars

— Josh Elliott-Wolfe (@ElliottWolfeJ) August 16, 2020

But, despite the punishment they’ve taken, the duo has keyed the Stars’ offensive resurgence. At 5v5 the two have taken the second and sixth-most hits in the playoffs, and have the 11th and 12th best iFF rates among defensemen according to Natural StatTrick.

Can Stars’ Keep Offense Clicking?

Goals have not been hard to come by in this series. While Game 1 was a push, Games 2 and 4 hit the over easily.

And with the way the Stars have been dominating offensively the past two games, you can expect that to continue. But with a lot of late scoring taking place, three games have been decided by one goal.

Based on that, it’s fair to expect Calgary to cover in Game 5. But if you’re betting outright, back the Stars.

Picks: Dallas Stars (-130), OVER (-143)