Calgary Flames Now -136 Favorites to Beat Winnipeg Jets After Opening Series Line Was A Pick’em

• The NHL returns to play Saturday, August 1st for the playoffs qualifying round
• The Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets will square off in a best-of-5 tilt
• See below for the odds for both teams and the best bet to win the series

The National Hockey League is returning to play with a very juicy qualifying series matchup between two Canadian rivals in the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets. When odds opened in late May, it was a pick’em series, but things have changed now with Calgary given the edge to take down Winnipeg.

They’ll be competing in Edmonton, which is the hub city for the Western Conference games, and oddsmakers don’t put much stock in either team hoisting the Stanley Cup. The NHL is one league where surprise teams take home the title, much like the St. Louis Blues last season so don’t discount these two teams just yet.

Both squads were separated by just one point in the standings (the Jets had one more point but played one more game), so it should come as no surprise that there isn’t a massive favorite to advance to the playoff round. Which team is the best bet to move forward in their pursuit of Lord Stanley?

Flames vs Jets Series Odds

Odds taken July 26th

Winnipeg Has Had The Recent Upper Hand Over Calgary

In the last six meetings, the Jets have emerged victorious in four of them, including their lone meeting way back in October at a neutral site in Regina, Saskatchewan. In the last 10 contests, however, they’ve split the games at five apiece, though the Flames have scored eleven more goals.

"I liked how hard they worked. I liked the attention to detail. We felt as a staff, they did a really, really good in the two weeks to prepare themselves."

Geoff Ward appreciates the work his team has put in as they prepare to take on the Jets in August. pic.twitter.com/shfnGwZWgP

— Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) July 25, 2020

Both of these squads boast an impressive group of top-six forwards, and their statistical comparison during the season was pretty close in all categories, with the lone exception being Calgary was much better on the penalty kill as they have the better group of blueliners led by Mark Giordano.

Calgary Flames vs Winnipeg Jets 2019-20 Stats

Jets Have Edge In Goaltending Battle

Goaltending will be key, as it always is, with Winnipeg having the considerable edge with Vezina Trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. He led the league with six shutouts in the regular season and his .922 save percentage was second in the league, behind only Tuukka Rask among goalies with at least 40 appearances. Calgary is expected to counter with David Rittich, who had a .907 save percentage and is coming off an elbow injury.

Connor Hellebuyck’s season (via Evolving Wild):

•19.9 Goals Saved Above Expected
•No other goalie even got to 9 GSAx
•Jets defense gave up 4th most shot attempts, 6th most shots on goal, 2nd most high danger chances
*No one played more games, faced more shots, made more saves

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) July 17, 2020

If Hellebuyck wasn’t playing at that high of a level, the team would’ve been in serious trouble because their defense was leaky with big names like Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers all gone from the roster this season. Calgary will be able to apply a lot of heat on Hellebuyck with the likes of Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan up front.

More Value In Picking Winnipeg

When this was a pick’em back in May, I felt Calgary was the team to choose because they were second in the league in one-goal games this season (.613 win percentage) compared to Winnipeg’s .500 record in such games.

Now that the Jets are a considerable underdog and they have the vastly superior goaltender in what will surely be a tight series, I’d be inclined to take a risk on the better value here.

Pick: Winnipeg Jets (+110)