Bruins -140 Favorites to Oust Leafs After Winning Game 4 in Toronto

• Boston evened its series with Toronto at 2-2 with a road win in Game 4
• The Bruins, who were 29-9-3 at home this season, will play two of the remaining three games at TD Garden
• Is the value on Boston to advance at -140, or the underdog Leafs at +120?

Can the Boston Bruins do it to the Toronto Maple Leafs again?

After winning Game 4 in Toronto, the best-of-seven series heads back to Boston tied at 2-2.  With home-ice advantage in the three-game mini-series that remains, the odds for the Leafs/Bruins series have changed and now Boston is a comfortable favorite to advance to the second round.

Maples Leafs vs Bruins Series Odds

Odds taken 4/18.

The Bruins are undeniably a great team on home ice, but this series is still a toss-up, and the Leafs getting plus money, that’s where the value is.

"That was the message in our locker room after the first and second. Just keep battling and find a way. There’s no quit in this locker room. Obviously, we gave ourselves a chance, just not enough."

Auston Matthews on battling back to within one. #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/tD5kr3N0Bx

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 18, 2019

John Tavares Is A Difference Maker

These teams battled in a seven-game series last year and not much has changed, except the addition of John Tavares to the Maple Leafs’ roster.  Yes, Toronto also lost Tyler Bozak and James Van Riemsdyk while adding Jake Muzzin, but really, the biggest difference is Tavares in Blue & White.

"These games, this time of year, it’s very small differences so just stay with it and build off the good things. Just be ready to bounce back."

John Tavares on entering a best-of-three scenario. #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/qfoHnvmt4k

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 18, 2019

With the suspension to Nazem Kadri, Tavares’ ability to give the Maple Leafs a dangerous 1-2 combo down the middle along with Auston Matthews is crucial.  Tavares has 1 goal and 3 assists through the first four games and should add to those totals as the games get more important.

Special Teams Woes Will Be Fixed

The Maple Leafs have been downright awful killing penalties in this series.  They’ve allowed five powerplay goals and have 54.5 PK%.  Both of those stats rank second-last in the playoffs.

During the regular season, Toronto was considerably better on the PK at 79.9%.  The Bruins have an elite unit with Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand leading the way, but no team can sustain a 45.5% clip on the PP. The best team in the regular season (Tampa Bay) connected at just 28.2%, the best rate in over two decades.

"I thought we had good energy. I think three of the four games we've had real good energy and did lots of good things. Just got in our way a little bit here in this one."

Mike Babcock on tonight's game. #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/0KIrzcD50k

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) April 18, 2019

Over a seven-game series, trends tend to revert back to the mean. Expect a better effort from the Maple Leafs’ special teams unit going forward.

Take The Value In Betting On Toronto

The Leafs led the series 1-0 and 2-1.  They have appeared to hold an edge at times thanks to their depth up front.  Matthews, Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander should give Toronto enough options to win two of the next three.  Boston has home-ice in two of those games, but that alone isn’t worth paying a -140 price in a battle between evenly matched teams. Take the value and side with the Maple Leafs.

PICK: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (+120)