Colorado Avalanche vs Nashville Predators (Game 5): Preview & Prediction
By Sascha Paruk in NHL Hockey
Published:
Up three games to one, the Nashville Predators can deliver the knockout blow and move one step closer to a return to the Stanley Cup finals tonight when they once again welcome the Colorado Avalanche to Bridgestone Arena (9:30 PM ET, April 20).
After taking the first two games of the series at home, Nashville opened as huge -330 favorites for Game 5, with the Avs at +288. The over/under was originally 6.0 with the over the narrow favorite (-109).
Below, get the opening odds, a comparison of the key stats and betting trends, significant injury news, and our score prediction.
Opening Odds
| MONEYLINE | PUCKLINE | O/U GOALS |
|---|---|---|
| AVALANCHE (+288) | AVALANCHE +1.5 (-108) | OVER 6.0 (-109) |
| PREDATORS (-330) | PREDATORS -1.5 (-112) | UNDER 6.0 (-101) |
Game 4 was all Nashville at the outset. The Preds outshot the Avalanche nearly 2-1 in the opening frame and had built a 3-0 lead midway through the second period.
The Avalanche wouldn’t roll over, though. Captain Gabe Landeskog got them on the board on an early third-period powerplay, and Alexander Kerfoot trimmed the lead to one with just under nine minutes left. But that’s as close as they would come. Pekka Rinne closed the door the rest of the way, rebounding strongly after getting pulled in Game 4. When the final buzzer sounded, Rinne had stopped 31 of 33 shots.
But perhaps the biggest news coming out of Game 4 is on the injury and suspension front …
Key Injuries & Absences
| AVALANCHE | PREDATORS |
|---|---|
| Johnathan Bernier: Questionable (LBI) | Ryan Hartman: Out (suspension) |
| Samuel Girard: Questionable (UBI) | Yannick Weber: Doubtful (UBI) |
| Erik Johnson: Out (knee) | |
| Semyon Varlamov: Out (knee) |
Bernier was forced from Game 4 early in the third period. Whether he dresses tonight or not, coach Jared Bednar has already announced that third-stringer Andrew Hammond (.923 SV% in 55 career NHL games) will start the must-win Game 5.
Nashville, meanwhile, will be without the services of fourth-liner Ryan Hartman (11 G, 30 P), who was suspended one game for this hit on Carl Soderberg.
| AVALANCHE | STATISTIC | PREDATORS |
|---|---|---|
| 43-30-9 (15-19-7 Away) | REGULAR-SEASON RECORD | 53-18-11 (28-9-4 Home) |
| +20 (T 11th) | GOAL DIFFERENCE (LEAGUE RANK) | +56 (T 3rd) |
| 257 | GOALS FOR | 267 |
| 237 | GOALS AGAINST | 211 |
| 46.80 (30th) | FENWICK % | 50.80 (13th) |
| 22.0% (8th) | POWER PLAY % | 21.2% (12th) |
| 83.2% (4th) | PENALTY KILL % | 81.9% (6th) |
| .914% (T 6th) | TEAM SV% | .923% (T 1st) |
Betting Results & Trends*
| AVALANCHE | TREND | PREDATORS |
|---|---|---|
| Lost 1 | WIN/LOSS STREAK | Won 1 |
| 3-7 | LAST 10 | 7-3 |
| 55-31 | PUCKLINE RECORD | 43-43 |
| 45-33-8 | OVER/UNDER SPLIT | 44-41-1 |
| Under 1 | OVER/UNDER STREAK | Under 1 |
*All statistics date back to regular season.
Score Prediction
| AVALANCHE | 2 |
| PREDATORS | 4 |
There’s no way around it: -330 is a steep price to pay on any NHL game, let alone one in which the underdog is a talented team with its back against the wall.
Will the Avalanche get an emotional lift from starting Hammond? Potentially. Is he a legitimate starting NHL goalie? Debatable. His numbers are pretty decent in a small sample size. Is he worth betting on? No.
Nashville is almost certainly going to win this game. They are a dominant home team, and Colorado struggles mightily on the road. If that -330 price is too steep for your liking, consider the over. Nashville lit up Bernier for five goals in both Games 1 and 2. They are likely to light the lamp similarly against Hammond, who played just one game in the Show this year.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
