Auston Matthews Now Has Ridiculously Short +250 Odds to Lead NHL in Goals; Ovechkin at +750

• Auston Matthews is the favorite to win the Rocket Richard Trophy
• David Pastrnak currently leads the NHL in goals (10); Alexander Ovechkin lurks close behind
• Who is the best bet to lead the NHL in goals?

Despite the Maple Leafs cool start, Auston Matthews has been red hot.

Toronto’s superstar entered Thursday’s action in third place with eight goals. While he still trails Boston’s David Pastrnak, a dominant night from Alexander Ovechkin vaulted Ovie into a tie for second.

With just one 40 goal season under his belt in three years, Matthews leads the Rocket Richard Trophy odds. But should he?

2019/20 Rocket Richard Trophy Odds

*Odds taken October 25, 2019

There are a handful of interesting names behind Matthews in the Rocket Richard Trophy odds.

Ovechkin, who has won the award six of the last seven years, is second. We’ll get to that.

But other names with good value early on? Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon and Patrik Laine. Poor James Neal isn’t even a longshot.

Why Does Auston Matthews Top the Odds?

It’s a pretty interesting question.

Especially when you consider that Matthews has better odds than a couple of 50 goal scorers, and players with more goals than him already.

Is it simply John Tavares’ early-season broken finger?

Auston Matthews Before and After Tavares’ Injury

While Matthews’ ice time has gone up in Tavares’ absence, not much else has. He’s falling short of the goal-a-game pace to start the year, while also averaging three shots per game, compared to the 4.9 he was before.

The @MapleLeafs announced today that centre John Tavares sustained a broken finger late in last night’s game in Washington.

He will be out of the lineup for a minimum of two weeks, at which point he will be reassessed by the team's medical staff.

— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) October 17, 2019

Really all we know is that Tavares’ injury is getting re-evaluated after two weeks. And it’s already been one.

So if the key to scoring is Matthews exploiting the match-ups with Tavares in the lineup, he may have to wait a while longer.

There are a couple of other things to consider.

Auston Matthews’ Career Stats

In the last two seasons, Matthews has averaged over at least 0.5 goals per game. He fell just short in his rookie year.

So Auston Matthews has an adjusted xGF% of 58.69, and is on pace for 60 goals and 82 points, but he had a bad game against the single best line in hockey so he needs to "be better". There's fair critique of his defensive game but come on. Go pet a dog.

— EJ (@emilyjomichele) October 23, 2019

But it’s also been two years since he played all 82 games. While it’s too early to say if this is a career-long concern, it’s one in the short term.

Great 8, Alex Ovechkin, Isn’t Slowing Down

In 2016/17, Alexander Ovechkin scored just 33 goals. People said he was over the hill.

Spoiler Alert: He wasn’t.

Alex Ovechkin’s Last Six Richard-Winning Seasons

*Lockout shortened

With nine goals, Ovechkin’s producing at a 0.75 goals-per-game clip. That’s 0.6 higher than his career average for October. In fact, Ovechkin produces goals at a rate of at least .58 per game in every month except for February (0.54).

Tonight is Alex Ovechkin’s 524th career game with 5+ shots on goal. The leaders since he entered the league (via Hockey Reference):

Ovechkin – 524

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.
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Nash – 247
Kessel – 245
Parise – 245
E. Staal – 237
Carter – 231
Zetterberg – 226
P. Kane – 225
Malkin – 216
Crosby – 204

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 23, 2019

Barring injury, Ovechkin will be there at the end of the season.

Draisaitl, McDavid Duo Could Earn Richard

While Connor McDavid is coming off of back-to-back 41-goal seasons, we don’t think he’s winning. But he’ll have a hand in the proceedings.

Where does Draisaitl rank among the league’s best right now?

"I think the talk about Auston Matthews as being one of the best players in the league needs to stop. Because he’s not as good as Draisaitl." – @CraigJButton on @OverDrive1050.

FULL VIDEO: https://t.co/0l6FdSlYuW pic.twitter.com/tdur3xpKvN

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) October 22, 2019

To this point, Leon Draisaitl has eight goals. McDavid has assisted on five of them, including each of Draisaitl’s last four. According to Dobber’s Frozen Tools, the line of Draisaitl, McDavid and Zack Kassian played 45% of the game against the Capitals.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl make it look so so easy! 🚨😳 pic.twitter.com/i9ISJjLh4t

— NBC Sports Hockey (@NBCSportsHockey) October 25, 2019

In total, that line is used 24.5% of the time by Edmonton, while McDavid and Draisaitl are also on the top power play. They’re used twice as much as the next closest pairing in overtime.

Where Odds Lead Us in Rocket Richard Race

Right now, while Auston Matthews has a chance to take home the award, we can’t endorse him as the runaway leader.

Especially with serious value surrounding Ovechkin, and the talented Draisaitl spending a ton of time with the best player in the world.

If you like Auston, maybe wait until John Tavares comes back into the fold and see if his odds slide. Otherwise, this is the time to hammer two tried-and-true goalscorers.