2019 Hart Trophy Finalist Odds: Kucherov Listed as Heavy -1300 Favorite; Is There Any Reason to Bet McDavid or Crosby?

• Nikita Kucherov’s 128 points were the most ever by a player in the salary cap era
• Conor McDavid had 116 points but played just 78 games, four fewer than Kucherov
• Although analytics are not a precise measure in the NHL, McDavid’s WAR was better than Kucherov’s

The NHL MVP finalists have been announced and Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov is the heavy favorite. Kucherov’s average Hart Trophy odds were already -500 at the start of March. They’re considerably shorter now, as shown in the table below.

Is there any value at all betting Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid – the other two candidates in the running?

2019 Hart Memorial Trophy Odds

Kucherov Is a Heavy Favorite

It’s no surprise that we see Kucherov as such a massive favorite for this award. He outshines everyone else by a mile in almost every traditional statistical category.

The two main factors that the voters will be looking for are (a) what kind of statistical season he put up and (b) team performance. In terms of stats, Kucherov led the league with 128 points, which was not only the most by a player in the salary cap era, but also the most since 1995-96. It’s the most points ever by a Russian-born player.

In comparison to the rest of the league, only seven players hit triple-figures while only one – McDavid – had more than 110.

Kucherov also finished as a +24 – the only player in the top 10 in points to do so – and registered eight game-winning goals, which tied him for the third-most.

In terms of the team success, the Lightning tied for the most wins (62) in a regular season. They dusted the competition, finishing with 128, 21 more than the next-best team. Based on those two main factors, it’s hard to see how anyone else gets the win here.

McDavid’s Points Are Impressive, Team Success Was Not

McDavid had an incredible season by almost every statistical measure. He had 116 points and 41 goals – nine of which were game-winners. He did that in four fewer games than Kucherov and with a much worse supporting cast.

If he maintained his PPG pace over an additional four games, he would have finished with about 122 points – just four shy of Kucherov.

The challenge for McDavid is that he played on a terrible team. Sure, that helps him look good individually as Kucherov clearly had the better help. At the same time, the Edmonton Oilers were a steaming pile of garbage, to put it nicely. They had just 79 points, the second-last in the West.

How much worse can they really get?

That’s going to really hamper McDavid’s chances.

Kucherov vs McDavid Statistical Comparison

Some Value With McDavid?

If I had to pick between Crosby and McDavid as a value play, I’d definitely go with McDavid. It really comes down to analytics, which – full disclosure – probably won’t come into play in this decision.

While McDavid has a tough time making a case with traditional stats, if you look at the advanced analytics, he has a strong case. Traditional stats like points, plus-minus and wins don’t take into account teammates, quality of competition, or how much a player was used.

Kucherov has a good WAR (“wins above replacement”) but not the very best. WAR is still a developing stat in hockey and different sites have different calculations. Kucherov is rated as low as 16th in WAR , and as high as third.

McDavid, on the other hand, rates the best overall and it’s easy to see why. He had a similar statistical season but was playing with a much weaker cast.

If I had to pick between Crosby or McDavid, it would be the latter as someone who might have value to pull the big upset here.

That said, it’s almost guaranteed that Kucherov’s historically good campaign ends with some individual accolades.

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