NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• The New York Jets are incomprehensible favorites over the Houston Texans on TNF in Week 9
• The Seattle Seahawks are catching points at home against the Los Angeles Rams
• Below, see my favorite NFL Week 9 ATS picks and early lines to target

With the Steelers and 49ers on bye weeks, NFL Week 9 brings an intriguing 15-game slate including a handful of huge divisional matchups. As we head into the back half of the season, there are a trio of NFL Week 9 odds that I am targeting. Two of the three have already seen significant line movement away from the side I am backing, meaning I am fading the public in Week 9. The table below lists my three favorite NFL Week 9 ATS picks, along with the sportsbook currently offering the best price.

Early NFL Week 9 ATS Picks

In all three of my Week 9 ATS picks, I am moving the line to get the odds into plus-money. That includes moving it across zero in both the Texans vs Jets and Rams vs Seahawks matchups, where, in my not-so-humble opinion, the wrong team is favored.

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Week 9 ATS Pick #1: Texans -2.5 (+134) vs Jets

This line opened at Houston -1.5 and has swung three full points, all the way to New York -1.5. The Texans (6-2, 2-2 away, 3-4-1 ATS) are dealing with significant injury concerns on offense. Already without wideout Nico Collins (hamstring), WR1 Stefon Diggs missed Monday’s practice with a knee injury. While that certainly should impact the betting on this game, it doesn’t justify this much odds movement.

The Jets (2-6, 1-2 home, 2-6 ATS) have lost four straight and it’s pretty clear that their defense (21.25 PPG, 20th in D-DVOA) has taken a step back compared to last season, when they finished third in D-DVOA.

We can put to rest the notion that soon-to-be 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers is going to be the salvation of a long-struggling Jets offense. After missing all but one play last season with an Achilles injury, Rodgers is putting up career-worst numbers in his comeback attempt. If his 85.1 passer rating doesn’t improve by at least six points, it will be his lowest ever as a starter. With seven picks through just eight games, Rodgers is on pace to throw nearly 15 picks this season. His previous career-high is 13, which came in his first season as Green Bay’s QB1 back in 2008.

Houston, whose defense ranks an under-the-radar third in D-DVOA, is a better team on both sides of the ball right now. Between Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon, and Cam Akers, they have plenty of skill-position playmakers left to be effective even if Diggs doesn’t play. Sophomore pivot CJ Stroud hasn’t even played particularly well (95.2 passer rating, 11 TD, 4 INT) and he still has his Texans sitting in the #2 seed in the AFC.

Week 9 ATS Pick #2: Commanders -4.5 (+110) vs Giants

Coming off a Hail Mary-induced win over Chicago, the Commanders (6-2, 2-2 away, 6-1-1 ATS) get the chance to feast on the reeling Giants (2-6, 0-4 home, 3-5 ATS) in Week 9. New York played its best game in weeks last Sunday at Pittsburgh, but still ended up on the wrong end of a 26-18 scoreline. Their 18 points nearly doubled their output from the previous two weeks combined. 

The Washington defense (24th in D-DVOA) still has lots of areas where it can improve, but it’s clearly miles better than it was last season, when the Commanders allowed NFL-worsts of 388.9 YPG and 30.5 PPG. The unit has been particularly good in the red zone, and that’s allowed it to enter the top-ten in scoring defense in 2024 (20.9 PPG), nearly a ten-point improvement compared to 2023.

With Jayden Daniels, the overwhelming favorite in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, playing like a ten-year vet, the Commander offense ranks third in both scoring (29.5 PPG) and DVOA. While there was certainly an element of luck in their 18-15 win over the Bears in Week 8, they led almost the entire game and out-gained Chicago by a wide margin (481-307).

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The Giants have a solid defense in their own right, but Russell Wilson and the Steelers just torched them for 426 yards, including 259 through the air and 167 on the ground at 5.1 YPC. Expect the Daniels and the Commanders to win going away.

Week 9 ATS Pick #3: Seahawks -2.5 (+134) vs Rams

This is another line that was swung across zero since the NFL Week 9 odds were released on Sunday, and I’m moving it back whence it came. The Seahawks (4-4, 2-3 home, 2-5-1 ATS) are not where they hoped to be after a strong 3-0 start and no one is going to mistake them for a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But Lumen Field still offers a significant home-field advantage and the Rams (3-4, 0-3 away, 2-5 ATS) have yet to win a road game this season.

Los Angeles put up a decent fight in their 26-20 loss at Detroit in Week 1, but was waxed 41-10 at Arizona in Week 2 and fell to rookie QB Caleb Williams and the Bears 24-18 in Week 4. Now Matthew Stafford and company hit the road for the first time in a month against a division rival desperate to get back above .500.

The Seahawks rank considerably better than the Rams in point differential (-5 vs -30), DVOA (16th vs 21st), and net yardage (-5.1 YPG vs -28.1 YPG). The Rams offense certainly looked rejuvenated with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in last week’s 30-20 win over Minnesota, but that was in the comfort of SoFi Stadium.