NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread & Early Lines to Target

• The Bucs and Falcons meet for the second time this month in Week 8
• The Bengals try to get back to .500 against the visiting Eagles
• See the early NFL Week 8 ATS picks and lines to target

Nearly at the halfway point of the season, the NFL Week 8 schedule brings a full 16-game slate, including NFC South rivals Tampa Bay and Atlanta renewing hostilities after their instant classic in Week 5. The table below sets out my three favorite lines to target early in the Week 8 NFL odds, one of which is already on the move.

Week 8 NFL Picks Against the Spread

This week, I am rolling with three home teams to win by at least a field goal, starting with the Bengals over the Eagles. 

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Week 8 ATS Pick #1: Bengals -2.5 (-110) vs Eagles

This line opened at Cincinnati -1.5 and is already up to a full field goal at some books, but FanDuel still has the number at Cincinnati -2.5 (-110) on Monday afternoon.

The porous Cincinnati defense that was to blame for the team’s 1-4 start has played much better the last two weeks, which isn’t a huge surprise since the likes of BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins have returned from injury.

A 17-7 win over the Giants in Week 6 and a 21-14 victory over the Browns in Week 7 were both subpar offensive performances. Their only first-half points yesterday were a 100-yard kick return by Charlie Jones.

CHARLIE FREAKIN' JONES WITH THE 100-YD KICK RETURN!!!!

📺: #CINvsCLE on CBS pic.twitter.com/9ObAqsLtQ7

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 20, 2024

But the last time the Bengals played at home, they put up 38 points against the Ravens (with five passing TDs from Joe Burrow). There is a good chance that Week 8 is the first time this season that both the Cincinnati offense and defense show up to the same game.

On the Philly side, the Eagles are 4-2 but actually rank below the Bengals in DVOA (17th vs 14th). They are coming off a tremendous defensive performance against New York, racking up eight sacks in a 28-3 thrashing of the Giants. Saquon Barkley ran roughshod over his former team with 176 yards on just 17 carries (10.4 YPC).

A few weeks ago, I would have said that spelled doom for Cincinnati’s subpar front seven. But getting both interior defensive linemen back from injury has made all the difference in the world for the Bengals’ run defense. The unit only allowed 77 rushing yards to the Browns yesterday on 21 carries (3.7 YPC), and 34 of those yards came on one designed QB run from Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Cleveland didn’t have another rush over six yards the rest of the day.

Week 8 ATS Pick #2: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) vs Falcons

The second pick this week is the Bucs to get a measure of vengeance against division-rival Atlanta. Tampa led for almost the entirety of their Week 5 meeting, which ended in a 36-30 OT win for Atlanta after Younghoe Koo sent the game to OT with a 52-yard field goal as time expired in regulation.

Atlanta’s offense looked disjointed in Week 7, though, falling 34-14 to the Seahawks at home. Kirk Cousins throw two picks and the Falcons lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Falcons certainly have the pieces to be a playoff team, but they still look horribly disjointed. I backed them to win SU in Week 5 at home against the Bucs, and was handsomely rewarded with a 509-yard passing performance from Kirk Cousins.

That won’t repeat in Week 8. Baker Mayfield – a top-ten favorite in the NFL MVP odds – will outplay his Atlanta counterpart and the Bucs will keep top spot in the NFC South.

Week 8 ATS Pick #3: Commanders -2.5 (+115) vs Bears

The last pick this week is an alt-spread. With rookie standout Jayden Daniels – the favorite in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds – suffering from a rib injury that’s likely to keep him out in Week 8, Washington has opened as a 1.5-point home underdog to the Bears. I’m moving the line a few points towards the Commanders and betting them to win by a field goal at +115 odds.

Chicago is a fraudulent 4-2. The four teams they’ve beaten – Titans, Rams, Panthers, Jaguars – have a combined record of 6-20. All four are at least two games under .500. They are 0-2 against the over-.500 teams they’ve faced (19-13 at Houston, 21-16 at Indianapolis). Yes, both games were on the road. But so is their Week 8 battle with the Commanders.

Washington’s offense didn’t show any signs of dropping off when Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels in the first quarter of yesterday’s 40-7 rout of lowly Carolina. Mariota was an efficient 18-of-23 for 205 yards and two touchdowns, while Washington racked up 214 rushing yards as a team, led by 71 from Brian Robinson on 12 carries (5.9 YPC).

Marcus Mariota showed up and showed out when the @Commanders called on him yesterday 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DDSsS0QAwO

— NFL (@NFL) October 21, 2024

The highly-suspect Commander defense that showed up the first three weeks has been much improved over the last four, allowing just 16.0 PPG in that span. Washington is 3-0 at home and I expect them to stay perfect in Week 8 whether its Mariota or Daniels under center.

Keep an eye on the NFL public betting splits to see how the lines are shifting during the week.