Week 7 NFL Props for Sunday: Can Thielen Top 100 Yards Again?

• Adam Thielen has been a monster, logging 100 receiving yards in all six games so far; he highlights our Week 7 NFL Props
• Baltimore ripped apart the Titans on Sunday, can they do the same to the Saints?
• Can the Chargers bring down Marcus Mariota as often as the Ravens did?

The NFL is well aware of Adam Thielen. So are oddsmakers in their Week 7 NFL Props.

Thielen is the latest undrafted gem to be unearthed, gradually building himself into an elite receiver.

And when we say elite, we mean elite. Ryan Clark didn’t use the exact words, but the typical “white wide receiver adjectives” don’t apply to him.

Please don’t use “Smart” “Hard working” “dependable””gym rat” when speaking of Adam Thielen. Dude is a baller & can do it all. So dang talented

— Ryan Clark (@Realrclark25) October 14, 2018

Now he’s approaching an all-time record. But first, he has to get through the New York Jets in Week 7.

3 Week 7 NFL Props for Sunday

Prop #1: Will Adam Thielen Go Off for 100 Yards Again?

Through six games, Thielen leads the league in receiving yards at 712. He’s also tops in targets (81) and catches (58).

All of that means he’s got six-straight weeks of at least 100 receiving yards. He’s two weeks shy of tying Calvin Johnson’s record set back in 2012.

To get there, he’s got to go over 100 against the Jets.

Hate to say I told you so lol but I did tell you guys a long time ago about how special he was and continues to be ❤️😊 @athielen19

— DIGGS (@stefondiggs) October 8, 2018

It seems like a pretty safe bet that he will.

The Jets were banged up last week against the Colts. It doesn’t look much better this week.  

Adam Thielen 2018 Stats

Those injuries have led to them giving up at least 100 yards to a receiver in four of six weeks. The Jaguars even double-dipped, as both Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief went off.

Just a friendly reminder: Blake Bortles was at quarterback.

Sam Bradford is licking his chops for this matchup, and he’s going to feed Thielen on Sunday.

Adam Thielen played D2 football. He wasn't invited to the combine, or drafted. He was cut by the Vikings the first summer, spent a year as a practice squad guy, two years as bit player. Now he might be the best receiver in the NFL. If you believe in yourself, screw everyone else.

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) October 14, 2018

Who knows? Maybe Stefon Diggs joins him.

The Pick: Thielen runs rampant on the Jets, racking up OVER (-125) 100 receiving yards

Prop #2: How Many Times Will the Ravens Sack Drew Brees?

The Ravens embarrassed the Titans to the tune of 11 sacks last week.

Yikes.

But there’s a difference when you’re going against Marcus Mariota, and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees.

For one, Brees gets rid of the ball FAST. Brees’ average time to throw (2.52) is tied for second-best in the league behind the now-benched Sam Bradford. While this doesn’t equal 11 sacks, it’s pretty significant compared to Marcus Mariota’s time to throw.

https://twitter.com/TheOfficialRNL/status/1052219016289366017

Then we have to look at the battle in the trenches. The Saints have the sixth-best offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile Baltimore’s pressure grade is seventh.

There’s been just one game where the Saints have let up three sacks this season. That was Week 3 against the Browns. However, they have yet to face a team better than 15th in pressuring the QB.

Baltimore? They’ve fattened up their pass rush grade with early-season matchups against the Bills and Broncos. But they’ve piled up 16 sacks over the last two weeks against the Browns and Titans, who have graded out well in protection.

#1 in Total Defense (270.8 YPG)
#1 in Sacks (26)
0 second-half TDs allowed
Ravens. Defense. 😈 pic.twitter.com/NPuy5TT4MT

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 15, 2018

The Saints will try to keep Brees clean, but the NFL’s all-time leading passer will be running for his life in Week 7.

The Pick: The Ravens bring down Brees for OVER (-120) three sacks on Sunday

Prop #3: Can Mariota Stay Upright Against the Chargers?

The Tennessee Titans are leading the AFC South, but it probably doesn’t feel like it right now.

All of the talk following their Week 6 loss to the Ravens is the 11 sacks they gave up. And with good reason.

Marcus Mariota is one of seven starting quarterbacks since 1985 (minimum of 10 pass attempts) with more sacks than completions in a single game, and the first to do it since Jay Cutler in 2010. https://t.co/RgJQXDQpt2 pic.twitter.com/CqFDCXm1l3

— Johnny Kinsley (@Brickwallblitz) October 16, 2018

While the blame for the number falls on the offensive line, that wasn’t the cause. Mariota’s line gave him time on most of the 11 sacks. Whether it was the receivers’ inability to get separation or Mariota’s decision making, things just weren’t working offensively.

Don’t expect it to get any better against the Chargers.

Chargers vs Titans Sacks

While the Titans have allowed at least three sacks in three of their last four, LA is ramping up the pressure. Even without Joey Bosa screaming off the edge, the Chargers have eight sacks over their last two games.

Desmond King and Derwin James have graded out exceptionally well this season. That means the Chargers’ pressure should come as a combination of pressure and coverage.

Desmond King and the Chargers defense made life difficult for Baker Mayfield and the Browns yesterday. pic.twitter.com/SPRcf8dDis

— PFF (@PFF) October 15, 2018

Expect another Sunday full of grass stains for Mariota.

The Pick: The Chargers go OVER (-120) and log at least three sacks