Week 6 NFL Props on Sunday: Marshawn Lynch Gets Revenge on Seahawks
By Bryan Thiel in NFL Football
Updated: March 26, 2020 at 1:39 pm EDTPublished:
- Find our three best player props for Week 6 in the NFL
- Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins both face some weak pass defenses; can they capitalize?
- Will Marshawn Lynch have a big game against his old team (the Seahawks)
After Week 6, we’ll be a third of the way through the NFL season.
One look at the standings, and it’s a very different NFL than we were expecting. The Titans, Bengals and Bears are all (somewhat surprisingly) leading their divisions.
With the Vikings looking up at the Bears in the North, we lead off with Kirk Cousins hoping to take care of business against the Cardinals.
Week 6 NFL Player Props
Prop #1: Kirk Cousins Will Have a Big Day Against Cardinals
| How many passes will Kirk Cousins complete vs Arizona? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 29.5 | +130 |
| Under 29.5 | -170 |
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Vikes and Kirk Cousins, although the good has far outweighed the bad.
The Good: Cousins has largely come as advertised. He’s managed 300+ yards in three of his five games. It would have been four, but he came up four yards short in Minny’s dud against the Bills.
The Bad: Dalvin Cook has barely been healthy, leading to problems in the running game. The loss of Cook has shoved Latavius Murray back into the spotlight.
Well it would have if the Vikes had run more than 15 combined times in their last three games.
| 20/36 (vs SF) | Week 1 | 21/30 (vs WAS) |
| 35/48 (@ GB) | Week 2 | 24/32 (@ LA) |
| 40/55 (vs BUF) | Week 3 | 24/35 (vs CHI) |
| 36/50 (@ LA) | Week 4 | 19/26 (vs SEA) |
| 30/37 (@ PHI) | Week 5 | 34/54 (@ SF) |
So Cousins has had to air it out this season, making that 29.5 number very attainable. He’s crossed that number in four-straight games, and with Cook’s status up in the air, he seems primed to hit it again.
The Cardinals have only allowed one passer to complete over 24 passes against them, but their games haven’t exactly been close. All of those teams also had a top 15 rushing attack.
Kirk Cousins career stats against the Cardinals (3 games)
5 Touchdowns
4 Interceptions
273 YPG
90.9 QB Rating
Record: 1-2— Purple Post (@Purple_Post) October 12, 2018
So long as the Bills debacle doesn’t repeat itself, expect Cousins and his receivers to pick apart the Cards, bucking his career trend.
The Pick: OVER 29.5 Completions for Cousins (+130)
Prop #2: Andrew Luck Throws a Lot Against Jets
| How many passes will Andrew Luck attempt vs New York? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 39.5 | -130 |
| Under 39.5 | -110 |
If I didn’t know any better, I’d think that Andrew Luck had his shoulder replaced. Not fixed.
How else do you explain his usage over the first third of the season?
The Colts have averaged a paltry 74 yards on the ground per game to this point. That has them sitting 29th in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Luck sits 14th in passing yards, first in completions and first in attempts. Eli Manning is number two in attempts, and he had to play on Thursday to get within 15 of Luck.
On a game-by-game basis, Luck has been thrown into the fire. He’s attempted at least 40 passes in four of his five games. He’s attempted at least 50 in three games.
| Week | Completions/Attempts | Yards | AVG Yards per Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 vs CIN | 39/53 | 319 | 6.0 |
| Week 2 @ WAS | 21/31 | 179 | 5.8 |
| Week 3 @ PHI | 25/40 | 164 | 4.1 |
| Week 4 vs HOU | 40/62 | 464 | 7.5 |
| Week 5 @ NE | 38/59 | 365 | 6.2 |
The Jets meanwhile, have been thrown on. And it looks like they’ll be ripe for the picking this week.
Even if New York’s secondary was healthy, they’d have their work cut out for them.
What’s Andrew Luck saying about the #Jets?
?⤵️ pic.twitter.com/zaWAOWB0Ly
— 1070 The Fan (@1070thefan) October 10, 2018
The Jets have given up the sixth-most completions, on the seventh-most attempts.
Andrew Luck is going to throw, and throw a lot on Sunday.
The Pick: OVER 39.5 Pass Attempts for Luck (-130)
Prop #3: Marshawn Lynch Gets Revenge on Seahawks
| How many rushing yards will Marshawn Lynch have vs Seattle? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 61.5 | -120 |
| Under 61.5 | -120 |
Since Week 1 we’ve seen flashes of Beast Mode, but Lynch has really had just one dominant game.
But now, for the first time, his former teammates are in the cross-hairs.
Good luck, Seattle. As we know, he’s all about that action, Boss.
Seattle’s defense has not been great against the run so far. Per game, they average 129 yards against on the ground. There’s only three teams worse than that mark in the NFL.
They’ve also given up 4.7 yards per carry so far, and have allowed a first down on 27.2% of runs.
| Lynch’s Opponent | Attempts | Yards | TD | Longest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 vs LAR | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 10 |
| Week 2 @ DEN | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 11 |
| Week 3 @ MIA | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 9 |
| Week 4 vs CLE | 20 | 130 | 6.5 | 52 |
| Week 5 @ LAC | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 8 |
Lynch has struggled to gain yards this year, averaging over four yards per carry in just one game.
He also hasn’t been breaking any long runs. If you take away his 52 yard run against the Browns, his longest run of the year is 11 yards. Last year he had 10 games with at least one run exceeding 10 yards.
Marshawn Lynch ranks second in NFL with 832 yards rushing since Week 12 of last season. #Raiders
— Vic Tafur (@VicTafur) October 12, 2018
While Lynch hasn’t been great, the Seahawks will have to pick their poison.
In Week 4 we put our money on the Raiders’ passing game. Week 6? Watch Lynch run to the bank in London.
The Pick: OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards for Lynch (-120)
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
