NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread: Believe in Baker’s Browns

• See our three best bets against the spread for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season
• Find the spreads and picks for every game of the week
• Season record = 4-4-1

I got roughed up a little bit in Week 3, going 1-2 with my locks against the spread. Thanks, Minnesota …

On the season, I’m now -$39.39 based off $100 wagers on each game. Plenty of time to get back into the winnings, though.

Here’s how I plan on doing it in Week 4.

Week 4 NFL Best Bets Against the Spread

Pick #1: Cowboys Bounce Back at Home vs Lions

Odds taken 9/29.

This game should be very simple for the Dallas Cowboys: just run the damn ball.

The Lions are allowing an NFL-worst 5.4 yards per carry, which has resulted in an NFL-worst 448 rushing yards allowed in three games.

Although the Cowboys offense is 31st in points, and will still be without center Travis Frederick in Week 4, they have proven they can still run the ball efficiently. Dallas averages 6.0 yards per carry, which is tops in the league.

Jerry Jones on @1053thefan says he sees similarities between the Cowboys and Rams offenses. “We’ve been just as proud of Dak” as they are of Goff. Last year they had Austin and we have Austin this year. “I don’t think its a reach to think we could have that kind of productivity.”

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 28, 2018

Sure, seeing comments like this (see above) from Jerry Jones doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in me that this Cowboys team is aware of what they have. But I do have faith they’ll do the right thing in Week 4 and just feed Zeke at home.

Pick: Cowboys (-3)

Pick #2: Believe in Baker’s Browns

For too long we have been lauding the talent the Cleveland Browns have accumulated. But there have always been two things holding them back: poor quarterbacking and bad coaching.

The former has been resolved with the insertion of Baker Mayfield under center. The first-overall pick from the 2018 NFL Draft is not going to be a one-week wonder. He’s an incredibly special talent and he’s not afraid of the moment – or letting you know how special he is.

The Baker Mayfield Effect ?

Jarvis Landry gives high praise to the Browns QB prior to his first start this Sunday. pic.twitter.com/cEG2ZoDjO4

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 28, 2018

And fortunately, I don’t believe it’s going to take any coaching brilliance to beat the much less talented, 0-3 Oakland Raiders.

Jon Gruden’s squad is not going to be able to match the speed of this Browns roster, and Myles Garrett is going to eat when Cleveland actually has a lead.

Taking Cleveland straight up should be considered for a bigger payout, too.

Pick: Browns (+3)

Pick #3: Rosen’s Debut Isn’t Going to Go Well

Sam Bradford was not the problem in Arizona. I understand the switch to rookie Josh Rosen. But Bradford was not the problem.

The Cardinals offensive line is atrocious, and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy’s play-calling isn’t helping out. Arizona has received an NFL-low 42.5 pass blocking grade from PFF – the next lowest grade is 58.2.

The three worst teams in the NFL when it comes to getting points on their drives

30. Dallas Cowboys – 33 drives – 8 scoring drives – 24.2%

31. Minnesota Vikings – 37 drives – 8 scoring drives – 21.6%

32. Arizona Cardinals – 31 drives – 3 scoring drives – 9.7%

— Nick Faber (@NickFaberNFL) September 24, 2018

Bradford has been pressured on 40.9% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest among QBs with at least 80 dropbacks in 2018. Arizona’s three highest-graded pass blockers are all tight ends.

Unfortunately for Rosen, the line in front of him doesn’t get much better when pushing forward, either. They rank 24th in run blocking, per PFF, which has led to a league-low 175 rushing yards in three games.

Seattle is no juggernaut. But this Cardinals offensive line is so bad that it spoils the entire team.

Pick: Seahawks (-3)

Full Week 4 Picks Against the Spread