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Week 16 Monday Night Football Props (Broncos vs Raiders)

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Mar 29, 2020 · 3:58 PM PDT

Derek Carr and DeAndre Washington Oakland Raiders
Derek Carr will be looking to give Raider Nation something to cheer about on Christmas Eve during Monday Night Football. By Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The Denver Broncos visit the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football for Week 16 in what could be the last game at the Oakland Coliseum
  • Can Derek Carr outpass Case Keenum?
  • Or will the pass rush duo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have something to say about it for Denver?

Week 16’s Monday Night Football matchup features the 6-8 Denver Broncos and 3-11 Oakland Raiders. We dig into the prop cards to find the three best bets for this match on MNF.

Prop #1: Carr To Have More Passing Yards Than Keenum

Player Props Odds 1
Carr More Passing Yards Than Keenum -156
Keenum More Passing Yards Than Carr +104

*For more options please follow the link in the table. All odds taken on 12/23/18.

Denver ranks 19th in passing YPG and Case Keenum has struggled to move the ball all season, ranking 20th in YPG at 242.6.

On Monday he’ll face a Raiders pass defense which ranks middle of the pack at 16th, giving up an average of 238.8 YPG through the air.

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On the Raiders’ side of the ball, their passing game ranks 14th with 244.8 YPG. Derek Carr is closing in on the 4,000-yard mark with 3,697 yards on the year, for an average of 264.1 YPG.

Carr vs Keenum Passing Yards Last 5 Games

Carr
VS
Keenum
263 Week 15 257
322 Week 14 186
285 Week 13 151
194 Week 12 197
192 Week 11 205

Keenum has failed to throw for at least 200 yards on five separate occasions this year. Three of those games have all come in the past month. Some of his struggles can be attributed to a receiving corps which features three rookies.

If Carr can avoid pressure from Denver’s pass rush, he should be able to find space in Denver’s secondary, which ranks 25th in YPG and just placed CB Chris Harris on IR this week.

Oakland also lacks any sort of run game, while the Broncos’ strength is handing the ball to rookie back Phillip Lindsay.

Pick 1: Derek Carr To Have More Passing Yards Than Case Keenum

Prop #2: Denver Broncos Total Team Sacks Over 3

Denver Number of Sacks Odds 2
Over 3 -115
Under 3 -115

The Broncos haven’t been able to do much right this season, but they have consistently been able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Denver has the sixth-most sacks in the league with 42. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have terrorized quarterbacks all season with 14.5 and 12 sacks. respectively.

That total of 42 works out to exactly three sacks per game, so they’ll have to slightly over-perform that average. Denver’s last five games have seen them total two, three, four, two, and three sacks on defense.

There’s extra motivation on the line with Chubb closing in on the rookie sack record and Miller two away from 100 for his career.

The Raiders offensive line, meanwhile, have been no better than a group of turnstiles all year having given up 48 sacks, which is the third-most overall.

That works out to an average of 3.43 sacks allowed per game. In their past five games Oakland has allowed five, three, three, three, and four sacks.

Pick 2: Denver Broncos Total Team Sacks Over 3

Prop #3: Phillip Lindsay To Have At Least 80 Rushing Yards and 1 Rushing TD

 Phillip Lindsay Props Odds 1
At Least 80 Rushing Yards -101
At Least 1 Rushing TD -125
Parlay +179

Either of these props on their own offer some value, but if you’re looking for a little more, a parlay could be the way to go.

One guess at who gives up the most rushing YPG? It’s the Raiders with 146.4.

That doesn’t bode well for Oakland, who should be seeing a heavy dose of Lindsay, who’s fifth in the league in rushing with 991 yards.

While he’s likely too far behind Saquon Barkley’s 1,155 yards for the rookie lead, he still has an outside shot at catching the Giants back.

Lindsay has nine rushing touchdowns on the year and is averaging 70.8 YPG.

He was held in check last week against the Browns with only 24 yards and no touchdowns, but had scored a TD in four consecutive games prior. In two of those games he scored twice.

Lindsay Rush Yards vs Oakland Rush Yards Allowed

Lindsay
VS
Oakland
24 Week 15 168
30 Week 14 40
157 Week 13 174
110 Week 12 242
79 Week 11 154

Look back to the Raiders’ last five games and an opposing rusher has topped the 100-yard mark three times.

Joe Mixon (129 yards), Gus Edwards (118), and David Johnson (137) have all recently had standout games.

The remaining two games featured teams missing their lead back with James Conner and Kareem Hunt missing for Pittsburgh and Kansas City.

Pick 3: Phillip Lindsay To Have At Least 80 Rushing Yards and 1 Rushing TD

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