Week 12 Monday Night Football Props: Titans vs Texans

• The Tennessee Titans head to Houston to take on the Texans on Monday Night Football of Week 12
• Will either offense be able to get going?
• See the three best props to bet for the game

A week after perhaps the best Monday Night Football game ever, we return to reality with a not-so-sexy AFC South clash between the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans.

Sure, this game has big playoff implications. But if it’s anything like the Week 2 meeting between these squads, it won’t exactly be a pleasure to watch.

Thankfully, props exist to make these game more exciting.

Prop #1: First score of the game will be a field goal

*All odds taken 11/25

The Houston Texans have attempted the second most field goals in the NFL, behind only the L.A. Rams. But while the Rams field goals are the result of a successful offense, the Texans reflect an incompetent one.

https://twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/1064631704428531712

And look, there’s Marcus Mariota as well!

Houston is scoring touchdowns on only 45% of their red zone drives. The Titans are performing better in that category, at 57%, but with the way J.J. Watt and this Houston d-line have looked over the past few games, the chances Tennessee moves backward when the field gets tighter looks pretty good.

It wouldn't be NFL Sunday without @JJWatt sacking a quarterback 😤#OnWisconsinpic.twitter.com/zrLsvgnm9z

— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) November 18, 2018

Both teams have had a field goal be the first score in four of their 10 games this season. Take that to be the case again here.

Pick: First score is a field goal or safety (-105)

Prop #2: Over 5.5 Total Sacks

As you saw above, these offensive lines have not been great at protecting their passers.

But Deshaun Watson doesn’t do his blockers any help. His average of 3.11 seconds to throw is second-slowest of all eligible passers. So while the Titans d-line is nothing to write home about – ranking 21st in adjusted sack rate – Watson will give Jurrell Casey and company plenty of chances to drag him down.

There was five combined sacks when these teams met in Week 2, but the Titans rarely threw the ball thanks to an early lead and backup QB Blaine Gabbert leading the offense. With Mariota back under center, expect more straight drop backs from the Titans.

Pick: Over 5.5 Total Sacks (-130)

Prop #3: Derrick Henry will have more rushing touchdowns than Lamar Miller

The odds for Henry to just score a rush TD are +200, but we’re going to juice them up by taking him to outperform Miller, who isn’t very good.

How bad is Lamar Miller? He’s averaging 3.7 YPC while seeing 8+ defenders just 12.3% of time. Of RBs with 70+ carries, only Todd Gurley sees 8+ defenders fewer (10.1%) and he averages 4.8 YPC.

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 20, 2018

Miller has more red zone carries than Henry, but has done fewer with them. In 23 rushes inside the 20 he’s averaging just 1.7 yards and scored two TDs.

Henry is on a heater, with four TDs in four games and averages 2.4 yards per carry down in the red zone.

First edition of #TrenchWatch #TitanUp vs #Patriots
– TE does a great job sealing the C Block on the front side to lock up the Mike
– Good kick out to open a lane
– Corey Davis delivers a perfect crack block
– Pulling guard seals the CB for gaping hole for a Derrick Henry TD pic.twitter.com/LiT52R3GbO

— Cut N Dryve (@CutNDryve) November 13, 2018

Neither team allows many rushing touchdowns, with Houston surrendering five and the Titans giving up six. But in a game that should be ugly, take a big thumping back to do some damage.

Pick: Henry to get more rushing TDs than Miller (+300)