NFL Week 1 Trends to Know Before Betting
By Robert Duff in NFL Football
Updated: September 11, 2022 at 6:48 am EDTPublished:
- NFL betting trends show the Los Angeles Rams are perfect both straight up and against the spread in Week 1 of the season under head coach Sean McVay
- The Detroit Lions were the NFL’s fourth-best ATS team during the 2021 season
- All of the key NFL Week 1 betting trends are outlined in the story below
What can be learned from the NFL Week 1 betting trends? Well, for starters, bettors should be fading the favorite in the Super Bowl odds.
Sure, during a 3-13-1 campaign in 2021, the Detroit Lions took a lot of hard knocks. But those who backed the Lions with wagers were never hard up for cash.
Over the past two decades, the New England Patriots were making life miserable for plenty of NFL teams. But their recent trips to Miami seldom leave the Pats in good standing.
Let’s take a look at some of the key NFL Week 1 betting trends and see where the smart money is going.
Rams Trends Always Upward In Week 1
Just call him Sean of the Spread. Since Sean McVay took over as head coach of the Los Angeles Rams in 2017, the Rams have proven to be the best Week 1 lock in the NFL.
The @RamsNFL are 5-0 in Week 1 under Sean McVay.
Can the Super Bowl champs make it 6-0?
📺: #Kickoff2022 — Thursday 9/8 at 8:20pm ET on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7rgVki9T0a pic.twitter.com/c4FHx7VsTz— NFL (@NFL) September 4, 2022
Under McVay, the Rams are 5-0 straight up in Week 1 action. LA is also a perfect 5-0 against the spread in those games.
McVay may face his most daunting challenge for openers in 2022. The Rams will launch the NFL regular season on Thursday, September 8, at home at SoFi Field facing the Buffalo Bills. NBC is carrying all the action beginning at 8:20 pm ET.
Los Angeles Rams NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
| Season | Result | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Chicago Bears 14 @ Los Angeles Rams 34 | LAR -8 |
| 2020 | Dallas Cowboys 17 Los Angeles Rams 20 | LAR -1 |
| 2019 | Los Angeles Rams 30 at Carolina Panthers 27 | LAR -1.5 |
| 2018 | Los Angeles Rams 33 at Oakland Raiders 13 | LAR -6.5 |
| 2017 | Indianapolis Colts 9 Los Angeles Rams 46 | LAR -3.5 |
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The Bills are the +600 chalk to win this season’s Super Bowl. Buffalo is also a 2.5-point road favorite against the Rams. Buffalo is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three road games facing the Rams.
In fact, the Bills haven’t dropped a game at Los Angeles to the Rams since 1983. In Buffalo’s most recent road game against the Rams, the Bills came away 30-19 winners in 2016.
The @RamsNFL in Week 1 under Sean McVay
2017 WIN vs Colts (46-9)
2018 WIN vs Raiders (33-13)
2019 WIN vs Panthers (30-27)
2020 WIN vs Cowboys (20-17)
2021 WIN vs Bears (34-14)
2022 ? vs Bills pic.twitter.com/ysGF4FPbrT— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 1, 2022
This will be the first time under McVay’s tutelage that the Rams are set as an NFL Week 1 underdog. During McVay’s time in charge, LA is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Eagles Land Tough Week 1 Test At Lions
There’s a lot of love out there for the Detroit Lions thanks to the effervescence of coach Dan Campbell on HBO’s Hard Knocks. This national attention is transcending the betting world. In the NFL divisional odds, BetMGM is reporting taking in more action on the Lions to win the NFC North than any other team.
Is this misplaced optimism? Probably. However, playing the Lions in the betting world is smarter than backing say, those average Chicago Bears.
Two teams looking to make a statement in 2022. And they play in Week 1. 👀@Eagles | @Lions
📺: #PHIvsDET — Sunday 1pm ET on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/7rgVki9T0a pic.twitter.com/hqO5wzrbfn— NFL (@NFL) September 6, 2022
Last season, even though the Lions were a dismal 3-13-1 SU, they were a dynamite ATS club. The Lions were a betting trend all to themselves.
Detroit went 11-6 ATS for a .647 cash rate. Only the Dallas Cowboys (13-5, .722), Cincinnati Bengals (14-7, .667) and Green Bay Packers (12-6, .667) were a better NFL ATS bet in 2021.
The Lions play host to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 and are 2-1 both SU and ATS in their last three home meetings with the Eagles. Philadelphia is a 4-point road favorite and did win 44-6 at Detroit last season, one of those six weeks when the Lions didn’t cover. Detroit was 6-2 ATS as a home underdog last season.
Miami Sound Machine At Home Against New England
The arrival of the New England Patriots and coach Bill Belichick to town is rarely a cause for celebration. In Miami, though, The Hoodie hasn’t proven to be much of a bother.
The Dolphins are 3.5-point home favorites over the Patriots in Week 1 and that betting trend is about right. Miami is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine home games against New England.
The Patriots are flying to South Florida today, five days ahead of their season-opener against Miami. It's a chance to practice there and prep for the heat/humidity.
The Pats are 2-7 in their last nine visits to Miami. They're 7-2 in their last nine home games vs. the Dolphins.
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) September 6, 2022
Granted, when things go south in South Beach, it’s been bad. New England won 43-0 in 2019 and 35-14 in 2017. But for the most part, it isn’t the Dolphins who end up swimming with the fish.
This will be the fifth Week 1 meeting of the NFL season between these two teams in Miami. The Dolphins are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the previous four openers.
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Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
