Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target
- The start of Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is just 72 hours away
- The Week 1 NFL odds are filled with short home favorites
- See the best early NFL Week 1 ATS picks, including Jim Harbaugh’s debut with the Chargers
Storylines abound in Week 1 of the NFL season, which starts on Thursday with the defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens on TNF. Week 1 concludes with Aaron Rodgers’ return, as his New York Jets square off with the NFC-favorite San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Below, find my three favorite early ATS picks for Week 1, which include Jim Harbaugh’s first game on an NFL sideline since 2014.
Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Date/Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders vs Chargers | LAC -3 | Chargers | Sunday, Sep. 8 (4:05 pm ET) |
| Cowboys vs Browns | CLE -2.5 | Cowboys | Sunday, Sep. 8 (4:25 pm ET) |
| Jets vs 49ers | SF -3.5 | 49ers | Monday, Sep. 8 (8:20 pm ET) |
My early lines to target for Week 1 include two home favorites (Chargers, 49ers) and one road underdog (Cowboys). All wagers are one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Odds as of Sep. 2 at DraftKings. Download the top NFL betting apps for the 2024 season.
Week 1 ATS Pick #1: Chargers (-3) Over Raiders
The Chargers are coming off an ugly 5-12 season, but they’re better positioned than most five-win teams would be heading into 2024.
First, the team was 5-7 when starting QB Justin Herbert was healthy last year. Second, they were missing star edge rusher Joey Bosa for roughly half of last season. Third, they hired Jim Harbaugh, who put together a stirling 44-19 regular-season win/loss record in his four year with the 49ers from 2011-2014, which included three trips to the NFC Championship Game and one Super Bowl appearance.
The Chargers pass-catching group is going to look very different with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler all gone but the quartet of Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnson, DJ Chark Jr, and rookie Ladd McConkey is nothing to sneer at.
The Raiders, on the other hand, brought on journeyman QB Gardner Minshew as the centerpiece of their offense, and I have no confidence that move will pay dividends. The former sixth-round pick threw for just 3,305 yards and 15 TDs and nine interceptions in 17 games with the Colts last year, connecting on 62.2% of his passes. His passer rating of 84.6 was just 25th-best in the league.
Coming off an 8-9 season, Las Vegas has been pegged with an NFL win total of just 6.5, two full games lower than the Chargers (8.5). They were also a dismal 2-6 on the road last year.
I expect the Harbaugh era to start with a bang and the Chargers to cover as field-goal favorites.
Week 1 ATS Pick #2: Cowboys (+2.5) Over Browns
My last two picks coincide with my two favorite 2024 NFL win-total picks: Cowboys over 9.5 and Jets under 10.5.
The Cowboys start the season with a road game at the Browns, who managed to go 11-6 in 2023. The Cleveland defense is no joke. Myles Garrett enters Week 1 as the third-favorite in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds while Denzel Ward anchors one of the best secondaries in the league.
But Cleveland is running it back with DeShaun Watson at quarterback, and he was borderline abysmal in 5.5 games during an injury-shortened 2023 campaign. Watson completed just 61.4% of his passes for 1,115 yards with seven TDs and four picks.
In Week 1, Watson is staring down a top-five scoring defense. Dallas allowed just 315 points last year, 37 fewer than the Browns, despite sitting outside the top-ten in takeaways.
a few fun facts about Deshaun Watson:
he has a $73,000,000 cap hit in 2025 and 2026… most of any player in NFL history
also was the most inaccurate QB in the NFL last yr
also threw 3 of the most hilarious passes last yr that you will ever see pic.twitter.com/PE3ez7L8em
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 29, 2024
I have a lot more confidence in Dak Prescott, at least as a regular-season performer. Dallas has won 12 games in each of the last three seasons and I expect similar results in 2024 with largely the same roster. The absence of injured wideout CeeDee Lamb is meaningful, but I still like the Cowboys getting points in Week 1.
Week 1 ATS Pick #3: 49ers (-3.5) Over Jets
My final pick of the week is the 49ers to cover as 3.5-point home favorites against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets.
I’m not nearly as sold as some on Rodgers being the one missing piece that turns the Jets into contenders. They managed to go 7-10 last season despite an ugly -87 point differential, and they’re still lacking at the skill positions.
While they have a solid offensive line, the 40=year-old Rodgers’ mobility is going to be well-tested by arguably the best defensive line in the league. San Francisco racked up 48 sacks last year and added Leonard Floyd from the Bills in free agency. Floyd’s piled up 39.5 sacks over the last four years, finishing with at least nine in every season.
The Jets have the best-ranked secondary per PFF, but the Niners – who racked up 491 points (28.9 PPG) last year – are basically undefendable at their best. Their WR group also ranks #1 and Christian McCaffrey is top non-QB in the NFL MVP odds.
Expect San Francisco to make a statement in their quest to return to the top of the NFC mountain.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
