Final Super Bowl 2025 Player Props – Picks for Chiefs vs Eagles Props & Line Movement
By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football
Published:
- The Chiefs vs Eagles player props for Super Bowl 59 have been on the move over the last two weeks
- Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards has dropped from 117.5 to 111.5, while Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards has grown from 45.5 to 51.5
- See all the latest Chiefs vs Eagles player prop over/unders plus predictions
Super Bowl 59 between the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2, 8-10-1 ATS) and Philadelphia Eagles (17-3, 13-7 ATS) is just 24 hours away. The majority of the Super Bowl 59 odds have been open for nearly two weeks at this point, meaning the public and sharps alike have already wagered millions on the final NFL game of the season. As always, the Super Bowl player props are one of the most-bet markets, and the over/unders for all the QBs, running backs, and receivers have been on the move. The table below lists the current Chiefs vs Eagles player props (passing, rushing, receiving) in bold juxtaposed with the opening lines in italics. Under the table, find my favorite Super Bowl player-prop picks.
Final Super Bowl 59 Player Props (Chiefs vs Eagles)
The notable line movement in the KC/PHI player props over the last 13 days includes Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop dropping from 117.5 all the way to 111.5. Eagles dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, has seen his rushing prop increase from 36.5 to 39.5. On the KC side, DeAndre Hopkins’ receiving total has dropped from an already-low 16.5 yards to just 11.5 yards.
KC vs PHI Prop Pick #1: Saquon Barkley Over 21.5 Rushing Attempts
Barkley’s rushing total wasn’t the only number of his to drop steeply over the last two weeks. The All-Pro’s rushing attempts also fell from 23.5 to 21.5 with the over now slightly favored at -122. I am betting the over and recent history is on my side. Barkley has rushed the ball at least 25 times in four of the last five games, and the only time he didn’t reach that number was in Philly’s 55-23 rout of the Commanders in the NFC title game. But remember that the Eagles were in full control of that game from about the midway mark and backup Will Shipley played most of the fourth quarter.
Barkley is the Eagles’ bread-and-butter on offense. Sure, we can expect KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to scheme up ways to stop him. But Spags’ creativity and brilliance is more on the blitzing side of things. The Chiefs finished the regular season rated a solid-but-not-spectacular 10th in rush defense at PFF, compared to fifth in pass rush, fifth in coverage, and second in overall defense.
If the Chiefs’ D has a weak point, it’s the ground game, and I expect Barkley to be the focal point of Philly’s gameplan once again.
Pick: Barkley over 21.5 rush attempts (-122)
KC vs PHI Prop Pick #1: DeVonta Smith Under 53.5 Receiving Yards
The other prop I’m targeting is Philly wideout DeVonta Smith to stay under 53.5 receiving yards. As noted in the final Chiefs vs Eagles injury reports, Smith has been battling a hamstring injury and was limited at practice all week.
Even at full speed, he’s only gone over 52.5 yards in three of his last nine games. The Eagles are running the ball at almost every opportunity and, as touched on above, it would make sense that they would continue that trend in the Super Bowl, targeting KC’s relatively weak rush defense.
On top of that, it’s clear that Smith has become Jalen Hurts’ third-favorite target now that tight end Dallas Goedert is back and fully healthy. Goedert and AJ Brown have both been targeted 18 times in the postseason, while Smith has only been targeted 12.
In light of KC’s cornerback strength on the outside and the amount of pressure they generate on deep drops, it’s unlikely Smith breaks an explosive play downfield. That would be the case if he was fully healthy, and the fact that he’s clearly less than full speed due to his hamstring issue makes it all the more true.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
