Tremaine Edmunds Falling out of Defensive Rookie of the Year Race

• Tremaine Edmunds slides down DROY odds board
• Should there be a gap that far between Edmunds and Darius Leonard?
• Seeking out the best value bet for rookie defenders

We’re closing in on the midpoint of the NFL season, and there appears to be a separation developing at the top of the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.

In particular, Bills rookie linebacker Tremaine Edmunds went from a top three legitimate contender to an outside chance within a span of two short weeks. (See the Top 5 tab in the graph below.)

Average 2018 Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Now, he did just slip one spot, but it was a steep fall from the previous tier. Which begs the question: what happened?

2018 NFL DROY Odds

Edmunds Still Making an Impact

Now, it would be one thing if Edmunds’ play had gone south, but even as the Bills have struggled to cobble together wins, it hasn’t been because the defense has been lagging. You could make the argument they’re the only thing keeping Buffalo respectable right now.

The rookie with the forced fumble!

Ok, @maine_savage23. #TENvsBUF #GoBills pic.twitter.com/z6136Z3u8y

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 7, 2018

Six weeks into the season, the Bills have dotted the NFL leaderboards with their surprising play.

They rank third in yards allowed at just 311.7 per game, tied for third in sacks (19), sixth in pass yards allowed (219.2), eighth in rush yards allowed (92.5), and are head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the NFL in forced fumbles. Their 19 is seven clear of any other team.

And Edmunds has been at the center of it all, making big contributions. A big part. I mean, check this stat:

#RoundingUpTheHerd: Tremaine Edmunds is the only player in the @NFL with 35+ tackles, 5+ passes defensed and 2+ forced fumbles. pic.twitter.com/VC8fCMfHxg

— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) October 12, 2018

With that in mind, it’s safe to say that not all statistical grading on the position of linebacker is completely accurate. How is it possible that he’s not on this board?

The Cowboys first round draft pick is making a big impact at linebacker. pic.twitter.com/te0M3cAeK0

— PFF (@PFF) October 12, 2018

What’s most surprising is that the young man is still really young. At 20 years old, he’s not supposed to be patrolling the teeth of the defense and destroying worlds.

Tremaine Edmunds is doing this stuff at 20 years old… pic.twitter.com/0Iaz5HZhTK

— Johnny Kinsley (@Brickwallblitz) October 5, 2018

Darius Leonard Buzz Picking Up Steam

Perhaps it’s not Edmunds so much as it’s the competition. Indianapolis wunderkind Darius Leonard has been doing it at a high level at the same inside linebacker position as Edmunds.

He also happens to already have a signature game to his resume, which is why he’s atop the leaderboard.

is this the most fantasy points by a defender without a TD?

RT @Colts: DARIUS LEONARD IS NOT HUMAN.

17 TACKLES
15 SOLOS
1 SACK
1 FORCED FUMBLE

😱😱😱 https://t.co/0Mz4hL1DKK

— Shontong Balentong ⭐️ (@shontong81) September 16, 2018

Strong tackling appears to be his forte, as he currently leads the NFL in total tackles with 62 – having played one less game than the field as he missed a Week 6 loss to the Patriots.

It seems like ages ago that the inside linebacker spot was a glamour position, but it’s safe to say that if there is a resurgence, these two will likely be at the forefront of it.

Tremaine Edmunds vs Darius Leonard Statistical Comparison

Interested in picking nits? Thank goodness for Twitter.

The reason tackles suck as a statistic (beyond the fact they're inaccurate + unofficial):

Darius Leonard leads the league in tackles, which is largely because he's given up 34 catches on 36 targets in coverage

That's 7 more receptions than any other defensive player has allowed

— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 4, 2018

What Rookie Presents the Best Value for DROY?

At this point, taking a flier on Edmunds (+850) is not a bad idea.

Leonard has been dinged up already. If he does miss more games, Edmunds could vault back into the mix if he puts together a signature performance or two in the final 10 games.

Don’t sleep on Bradley Chubb (+1000) either.

The Broncos pass-rusher finally made the impact expected of a top-five pick when he chased down Jared Goff three times for sacks in last week’s loss to the Rams.

If he can get to the quarterback in bunches, he could emerge as the winner when the dust settles. Getting to about 14 sacks or greater could do it for him.

DENZEL. WARD.

THIRD PICK OF THE YEAR.#BALvsCLE pic.twitter.com/JQPt6hczQK

— CS Nation (@_CSNation_) October 7, 2018

There’s a reason that Denzel Ward leapfrogged the field and ended up just behind Leonard in the updated leaderboard. The talented Browns corner is always around the ball and making plays.

Taking him now (+235) at the second shortest odds won’t be as profitable, but still could make you a winner.