Todd Gurley Favored to Score First Touchdown of Super Bowl 53

• Todd Gurley is the favorite to score Super Bowl 53’s first touchdown
• Sony Michel & CJ Anderson are right behind him on the odds board, despite running backs scoring first in just 3 of the last 10 big games
• Who are some of the best players to back for this prop?

Oddsmakers think Todd Gurley will have a big impact on this game and why not? He’s well-rested.

A week after being stapled to the bench in the NFC Championship, he’s favored to put up the first six of Super Bowl 53.

Odds to Score First TD in Super Bowl 53

*Odds taken 1/26.

This is always a prop you’re going to want to have a few longshots mixed in with a favorite.

Because while most years the first score goes to someone expected like Alshon Jeffery or Marshawn Lynch, every once in a while you get a real out of the blue one, like Malik Jackson or Gary Russell.

Also, let's not forget that Gary Russell has a Super Bowl touchdown. He may not even have a Wikipedia page.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) July 3, 2014

We’re going to offer a nice mix of lower and higher odds to play, and this year, my betting approach will focus on an overlooked position group in these offenses.

No, it’s not running back.

Just the Beginning for Tight Ends

Both these coaches know better than most: to win in the NFL Playoffs, teams need to be able to break tendencies they’ve relied on all year.

The Rams were famous for never breaking out of 11 personnel this season (1 back, 1 tight end, 3 receivers). But in the playoffs, they’ve been doing far more damage trading that extra receiver for a tight end and running 12 personnel.

Rams have done a lot of work over past few weeks to switch up tendencies. Used 12 personnel on 10 percent on plays in 2018 and ran from it 73% of time. Sets up easy PA here with Cooks motion in tight then sneak out backside pic.twitter.com/Ny7GZOYrEb

— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) January 23, 2019

With New England expecting a run from 12 personnel, what better way for the Rams to break from that tendency than to throw from it, especially around the goal line?

Both of LA’s tight ends are seldom-used in the passing game, but both could have a huge opening here. Tyler Higbee has already turned just three targets inside the ten this season into three touchdowns.

Jared Goff finds a wide open Tyler Higbee and the Saints lead back down to 3! #LARamspic.twitter.com/fQrvu3xeTo

— LastWordOnNFL (@LastWordOnNFL) January 20, 2019

Gerald Everett hasn’t been as reliable around pay dirt, but with both going off at 20-to-1, I like that tandem for the Rams first points.

How Will The Patriots Attack?

It’s weird that this counts as an unexpected wrinkle, but I think the Pats will throw to Gronk in the redzone.

The big man has just nine targets inside the 20 all year, and even though he had a huge game last week, he only got one look in the endzone. It was a disaster.

https://twitter.com/DropoutSports/status/1087141596028694528

But going back to breaking tendencies, the Pats have been riding their ground game through the second half of the season, aided by Gronk lining up as a blocker.

Last week, they tried to take advantage of him in the play-action game and it didn’t work. Perhaps this week, in what could be the final game of the big man’s career, they just throw it up to him like old times?

Gronkowski catches a touchdown off the fade route #SuperBowl pic.twitter.com/NHlY79A3j2

— FlurrySports (@FlurrySports) February 5, 2018

Getting Gronk at 10-to-1 would’ve been impossible yesteryear. Now, let’s hope he can recapture that old form for one last time.

The Play

Back Gronk, split a moderate amount between Everett and Higbee, and don’t forget that Dwayne Allen is technically on the Pats roster (50-to-1). I would also recommend James Develin if your book has him listed, but this particular one does not.

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