Best Thursday Night Football Props for Week 8 Dolphins vs Texans

• NFL Week 8 starts tomorrow with Dolphins vs Texans on Thursday Night Football. 
• Can Brock Osweiler continue to impersonate a competent NFL QB with JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney in his face?
• Will the field-goal happy Texans find more red-zone success?

The Week 8 NFL slate starts with an intriguing matchup between the Miami Dolphins (4-3, 1-2 away) visiting the Houston Texans (4-3, 2-1 home) at NRG Stadium (8:20 PM ET). For the full list of odds and score prediction, check out our Dolphins vs Texans game preview.  For an analysis of the game within the game, keep reading, as I break down the three prop bets I’m playing tonight.

But first, some record keeping: even with a solid $180 ROI in Week 7, my TNF prop picks are still -$49.30 on the year. But we’re trending in the right direction. Let’s get back in black.

Prop #1: First Score Will Be a Field Goal

The Texans lead the league in made field goals (17) and are one of the few teams who have more field goals than touchdowns (15). That’s a product of their horrendously bad performance in the red-zone this season.

These are the most successful offenses in the RED ZONE this season.#Seahawks #SeizeTheDEY #HereWeGo #RavensFlock #ChiefsKingdom #InBrotherhood #GoPats #Jets #Texans pic.twitter.com/7ZEPcAUPCg

— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) October 24, 2018

The Dolphins have only made six field goals all season (30th overall), but they are also bringing a Brock Osweiler-led offense to Houston and missing their most dynamic offensive weapon, Albert Wilson (4 TDs). Miami kicker Jason Sanders missed his lone attempt from 46 yards last week, but was 3/3 the week prior against Chicago. That included drilling the game-winner in OT from 47 yards out. Adam Gase shouldn’t hesitate to trot Sanders out when an early drive stalls around the Houston 30. 

On defense, Miami has surrendered 17 offensive TDs (11 passing, 6 rushing) and 13 field goals (on 15 attempts). This is a near toss-up by my math, meaning there’s value on the field goal/safety at plus money.

Prop #2: Dolphins to Score Longest Field Goal

Most of what I just wrote above screams Texans on this prop. They have scored the most field goals in the league, while the Fins are third-last. But 12 of Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 17 field goals have come from 39 yards or shorter, and he’s only 5/8 from 40 yards and out. Remember what I said about the Texans’ red zone issues?

Sanders, meanwhile, is 3/4 from 40-plus and, as mentioned, Miami is likely to stall out between the 30s on multiple occasions with Osweiler at the helm. The +240 odds on Miami have an implied probability of just 29.4%, which is just too low. Once again, I’m opting for the value play here instead of the most likely outcome.

Prop #3: No TD of 41 Yards or Longer

Houston hasn’t scored a TD of 41 yards all season, and have surrendered just one (a 66-yard pass against the Titans).

On the Miami side, Osweiler has never been able to push the ball down the field and has some of the lowest air-yardage-per-attempt numbers ever. Miami has still managed to score seven TDs of 41 yards or longer and given up two more (a 55-yard pass against the Patriots and a 94-yard kick return against Tennessee). But let’s dive a little deeper into those: the sidelined Wilson has accounted for three of them, and the equally electric Jakeem Grant has accounted for another three. Grant is going to suit up, but is still dealing with an Achilles issue and this is a short week to recover.

The only remaining Miami TD on that list is a 54-yard run from Kenyan Drake last week against Detroit. That was just his third run of 20-plus yards this season, and now he faces a Houston defense that ranks second in the league in DVOA against the run.