Texans vs Cowboys Prediction, Picks and Odds for Monday Night Football (Week 11)

• The Texans are 7-point road favorites against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football in Week 11
•  Dallas has gone 24 straight possessions at home without a touchdown
• Check out the Texans vs Cowboys prediction, picks, and odds for MNF

On paper, the battle of Texas isn’t shaping up to be much of a battle at all. The Texans (6-4, 2-3 away) are running away with the AFC South heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with a Dallas Cowboys (3-6, 0-4 home) squad that is completely broken. CJ Stroud and company are sizeable road favorites in the latest football betting lines as they look to hand Dallas a fifth straight loss.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Odds

Houston is currently favored by 7 points, in a contest with a total of 42. Bettors clearly don’t feel like this line is high enough, as the Texans are dominating the spread wagers so far. 74% of the tickets are on Houston -7, as is 78% of the spread handle. 

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Total-wise, we’re seeing similar lopsided action per the NFL public betting percentages: 78% of the over/under bets are on over 42, as is 55% of the total money wagered.

Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

A Get Back on Track Spot for the Texans

The lopsided spread line is more a reflection of how bad the Cowboys look rather than impressive Houston has been. The Texans have dropped back-to-back decisions, and three of their last four overall.

They haven’t exceeded 23 points in any of those outings, and have fallen to 30-1 in the Super Bowl odds. Stroud meanwhile, has thrown as many interceptions (2) as touchdowns (2) during that span.

The Texans check in as the league’s 17th highest scoring offense, down four spots from a year ago. Good news is on the way however, as star receiver Nico Collins is slated to make his return.

Nico Collins has more receiving yards than Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, & Amon-Ra St. Brown this season.

He’s played in just 5/10 games… pic.twitter.com/TACJRCbThm

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 14, 2024

Collins has been out since Week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was leading the league in receiving when he went down, and since then Houston has also lost their second best pass catching option in Stefon Diggs.

With a limited receiving corps, the Texans have deployed a run heavy approach, leaning on Joe Mixon. The former Bengal is averaging the third most rushing pards per game in the NFL (98.3), and has found the endzone eight times already.

The Cowboys enter play allowing the second most rushing yards per game (152), while ranking 30th in run stop win rate. Collins’ return will draw plenty of extra attention from Dallas’ defense, potentially making Mixon’s matchup even more favorable.

If there’s an area of concern for Houston, it’s along the offensive line. The Texans rank 20th in pass block win rate, coughing up 12 sacks in their last two outings alone.

For all of their flaws, the Cowboys can still generate pressure, even more so with Micah Parsons in the lineup. Parsons returned last week from injury, and helped Dallas rack up five sacks in a 34-6 loss to Philly.

Oh What a Rush

Unfortunately, those sacks didn’t lead to any success as the Cowboys offense was dreadful. Cooper Rush averaged 1.96 yards per attempt versus the Eagles, and was benched in the fourth quarter.

Cooper Rush vs Eagles

He’ll be back under center on Monday, at least to start, as the Cowboys look to do something they haven’t done since Week 3 at home: score a touchdown.

Dallas has only four touchdowns in 45 offensive possessions at Jerry’s World, and have gone 24 straight possessions without a TD in home losses to the Lions and Eagles. They’re converting just 35.9% of their third downs this season, and 41.7% of their red zone trips into touchdowns.

Dak Prescott, Rush and Trey Lance have combined for a total QBR of 34.3, which is higher than only Deshaun Watson and Will Levis among starting quarterbacks.

Texans vs Cowboys Prediction

Prescott is done for the season, so unless Rush or Lance morph into a reliable option, the Cowboys season is sunk. Life won’t get any easier this week against the Texans defense, which has forced a league-high 15 turnovers since Week 6.

Dallas is winless in four home games so far, losing three times by at least 25 points. They haven’t lost five straight at home since 2015, but that’s about to change.

The Cowboys are a 0-4 against the spread in their last four outings, and boast the second lowest cover rate in the NFL (22.2%).

Texans vs Cowboys Picks:

• Texans -7 (-110) at BetMGM
• Under 42 (-110) at BetMGM