Texans vs Chiefs Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Dec 21)

• Saturday NFL returns as the Houston Texans visit the Kansas City Chiefs on December 21
• Patrick Mahomes is expected to play despite spraining his ankle in Week 15
• See the Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions, player props and odds for Week 16

Division winners clash on Saturday as the Houston Texans visit the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a potential Divisional Round playoff matchup, with the two teams currently occupying the AFC’s fourth and first seeds, respectively.

On Sunday, it looked like Patrick Mahomes’ status was in jeopardy due to an ankle sprain he suffered versus the Browns. The opening line reflected his absence, but he’s made significant progress throughout the week, forcing online sportsbooks to adjust in the latest latest NFL odds.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

• Under 42 (-110) 

The Texans opened as high as -3.5, but the line has been moving toward the Chiefs ever since. It got down to Houston -1.5 with Carson Wentz still projected as KC’s starter, but once Mahomes returned to practice, the spread moved all the way to Chiefs -3.5.

That’s where the line currently sits, with a total of 42. Both teams are fresh off low-scoring victories in Week 15, and there are reasons to believe this contest will underwhelm offensively as well.

This is a SUPER BOWL caliber defense 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/2udWbA9nqD

— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) December 16, 2024

Let’s start with the Houston side. The Texans have cleared 23 points twice in their last eight games, and that was versus Dallas and Tennessee. C.J. Stroud has been under siege all season, and looks like a deer in the headlights in the pocket.

Houston has allowed the sixth most sacks in the league, while Stroud’s expected points added per dropback has cratered from 0.135 in 2023 (13th), to 0.002 (27th) in 2024.

CJ Stroud 2023 vs 2024 Stats

On the other side of the ball, the Texans’ defense is elite. They rank number one per DVOA, and just held the Dolphins to 12 points and 3.6 yards per play. Danielle Hunter has the best pass rush win rate of any edge rusher, while teammate Will Anderson is sixth.

That’s significant for a pair of reasons in this matchup. For one, Mahomes is playing on a bum ankle, which means his mobility will be compromised. Second, new left tackle DJ Humphries hasn’t practiced all week, meaning Wanya Morris might start on Mahomes’ blindside. Morris is one of the Chiefs’ lowest-graded linemen, allowing a pressure on 17% of his pass-block attempts.

Even when the line has been healthy, however, KC has struggled to score. They’re averaging 23 points per game, while Mahomes’ 6.7 yards per pass attempt is a career-low. Despite a 13-1 record, they own a mediocre +70 point differential, and the fourth shortest Super Bowl odds.

HOU vs KC Player Props

Moving over to the Texans vs Chiefs player props market, where Mahomes has a passing yards over/under of just 226.5. That’s six yards less than Stroud, and a number Mahomes hasn’t cleared in back-to-back games.

Fading Mahomes against this Houston defense is prudent, especially in the longest completion category. His over/under is set at 35.5 yards, a number he hasn’t cleared since Week 5. The Texans have allowed the league’s lowest passer rating this season, while Mahomes has just 16 big-time throws per Pro Football Focus.

That’s a far cry from when he took the league by storm in 2018. That season, he produced 51 big-time throws, which is nearly three per game.

• Texans vs Chiefs Player Props: Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-110)

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Per the NFL public betting percentages, KC is still drawing slightly more spread tickets (52%) and money (53%), even as 3.5-point chalk. The shortest Chiefs moneyline available is -179 at Caesars, while the longest odds you can get on the Texans to pull off the upset is +155 at BetMGM.

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Total-wise, the number has moved from 41.5 to 42 since opening lines were released. We’ll gladly take that extra half point with the under, something the trends agree with. Houston is a league-high 10-4 to the under this season, while Chiefs home games have gone under 59% of the time during the Mahomes era.