Steelers vs Ravens Odds & Picks (Week 16)

• The Baltimore Ravens (9-5) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at M&T Bank Stadium in a crucial AFC North battle Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on FOX.
• With a win, the Ravens clinch a playoff spot. With a win, the Steelers clinch the division title.
• We’re locked in on this great rivalry with our full analysis of the best odds, factors to consider and our prediction for Week 16 in the NFL.

We can argue if it’s the best, but it’s certainly the meanest NFL rivalry when the Baltimore Ravens (9-5, 7-6-1 ATS) take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4, 10-4 ATS) Saturday.

The two teams just played four weeks ago with the Steelers holding off the Ravens in an 18-16 slugfest. All of Pittsburgh’s points came on field goals.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson remains a NFL MVP candidate and directs the No. 1 offense in the NFL. The Ravens are a near-touchdown favorite.

Check out our look at the best odds and our prediction below.

Steelers vs Ravens odds

Odds as of Dec. 21 at Caesars. Join Caesars Sportsbook today to get a sign-up promo and take part in the Caesars rewards program. 

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This line started as the Ravens as 4.5-point favorites at FanDuel and Caesars, but has risen to a full touchdown at FanDuel, Caesars and BetRivers. It’s 6.5 points everywhere else. That’s huge when you consider each of the last nine match-ups were decided by seven points or less.

Pittsburgh is 4-2 in its last six games against the spread, and its last two games both hit the under.

The Ravens haven’t been so great against the spread, and they’re only 2-3 in their last five games.

Now let’s talk total. The over/under is listed at 44.5 just about everywhere except for BetMGM where its 45. Now, here’s our favorite point we need you to know: the last eight meetings between these two teams have hit the under. That’s almost Army-Navy quality.

There was some snow in Baltimore early Sunday, but it will be clear and around 35 degrees at kickoff with winds dying down.

STEELERS DEFENSE COMES UP CLUTCH ‼️

STUFF RAVENS ON THE 2-PT CONVERSION

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/FrQYCzvjl4

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 17, 2024

Replay Replay

Smart bettors like yourself know that one of the most valuable data points when betting the NFL is previous meetings. But how much you take that information into account is up to you.

But we’re going to lean heavy on what we saw when these two teams played a month ago. Baltimore missed field goals, and had three turnovers and still had a chance to tie the game at the end on a two-point play. The Ravens’ defense held the Steelers to six field goals.

Since that game, the Steelers have not looked sharp, going 2-2 and the passing game has sunk, throwing for 147 and 107 yards the last two weeks.

Baltimore hasn’t looked so hot either, since losing to the Steelers, and yes, you should be worried about Hall of Fame kicker Justin Tucker who is 19-27 this season and only 4-9 from 50.

TJ WATT INCOMING.

📺: #PITvsPHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/CwuLHvxvqb

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Defense Defense

Defensively, the Ravens rank No. 1 against the run, but second-to-last against the pass. That may not be a big issue Saturday, though, because the Steelers won’t have man-child wide receiver George Pickens, who is out with an injury. That’s a huge blow to the Steelers.

Pittsburgh’s defense leads the NFL in turnovers. Donte Jackson has five picks. TJ Watt is dealing with a bad ankle. He leads the NFL in tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. There’s no way he’s not playing Saturday.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is only 1-4 against Pittsburgh as a starter. It’s the rest of the NFL he dominates. He’s thrown for 34 scores and 3580 yards.

Steelers vs Ravens Prediction

• Ravens ML +270 at Caesars
• Under 45.0 at BetMGM

We can’t quite pull the trigger on the points, but we see what Vegas and the other bettors see, which is that the Ravens are home and have a real shot at knocking the Steelers down.

The Steelers looked bad against the Eagles last Sunday, and the Russell Wilson magic at QB seems to have run out. Baltimore is overdue to beat the Steelers by a couple of touchdowns. We love the under here. The defenses are too good to let anyone score more than 21 points.