Saints vs Packers Odds, Predictions and Picks for Monday Night Football (Week 16)

• The Packers are 14-point home favorites over the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 16
• Alvin Kamara (groin) is out for the Saints, while rookie Spencer Rattler will start at QB
• Check out the Saints vs Packers odds, predictions and picks for MNF

The New Orleans Saints (5-9, 2-4 away) limp into Green Bay on Monday night to face the surging Packers (10-4, 5-2 home). New Orleans is down the bulk of its impact offensive players, which spells doom in oddsmakers minds. Online sportsbooks have pegged the Pack as massive chalk in the latest football betting lines as they hunt for their ninth win in 11 games. Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from Lambeau Field, in Green Bay, WI, with ABC and ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Odds

Green Bay is currently favored by 14 points in a contest with a total of 42.5. The spread betting is completely one-sided even at this massive number, with 79% of the tickets and 84% of the money backing the Packers. Total-wise, the action is just as lopsided according to the NFL public betting percentages. Over 42.5 is garnering 76% of the wagers, and 83% of the total handle.

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Saints vs Packers Injury News

From a fantasy perspective, the Saints top offensive options heading into 2024 were Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Taysom Hill and Rasheed Shaheed in that order. The ladder three have been out for multiple games, and now Kamara is joining them.

New Orleans’ star running back will miss MNF due to a groin injury. He’s the team’s leading rusher and receiver, accounting for 31% of the Saints total yards. That kind of production doesn’t grow on trees, and without Kamara New Orleans will be hard pressed to generate offense.

To make matters worse, starting QB Derek Carr is also out with a hand injury. There was optimism that he may return after missing last week, but Spencer Rattler was named the starter on Thursday.

Packers Will Rattle Rattler

Rattler has made three previous starts this season and it did not end well. The Saints lost each of those games by 18+ points, with Rattler completing only 58% of his throws. Among qualified candidates, he ranks 42nd out 42 QB’s this year in expected points added per play, posting a dismal 37.7% success rate on throws.

It sucks to see Spencer Rattler struggle, he was so humble in high school pic.twitter.com/8f2GOTpd72

— GhettoGronk (@TheGhettoGronk) October 18, 2024

The Packers defense feasted on Seattle quarterbacks in Week 15, and are poised to do so again. Green Bay, a legit darkhorse in the Super Bowl odds, held the Seahawks to 13 points and 128 passing yards, registering two interceptions and seven sacks.

Rattler’s offensive line meanwhile, ranks 30th in pass block win rate. With no Kamara to dump off to, expect him to absorb plenty of hits.

Run Jacobs Run

On the other side of the ball, the Packers will continue to feed Josh Jacobs. He ranks third in rushing yards this season, scoring nine times over his last five games.

Jacobs leads the league in first half rushing yards, and has a staggering 235 rushing yards on opening drives this season. Last week, he touched the ball on eight straight plays to start the game, punching in a score on his ninth touch.

Most Rushing Yards After Contact this Season:

💪 Josh Jacobs – 974 pic.twitter.com/qHrezR9ttu

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) December 20, 2024

He’s a great bet to find the end zone again this week, as the Saints rush defense is putrid. New Orleans grades out 31st in rush defense per Pro Football Focus, and bottom-10 in tackling.

When the Packers grow bored of feeding Jacobs, the passing game is also set up for success. The Saints are allowing 6.2 yards after the catch, which is the third most in the NFL. Green Bay averages 6.6 yards after the catch, led by Jayden Reed (7.4).

Saints vs Packers Prediction

Another reason to like Green Bay on MNF is the weather. It projects to be below 30 degrees at kickoff, which is a massive disadvantage to a warm weather, dome team like the Saints.

Jordan Love is 2-0 as the Packers starter in sub-32 degree temperatures, while Matt LaFleur led teams have been nearly unbeatable in those conditions. He owns the best coaching record in December/January games since 2019 at 23-5.

Backing Green Bay is the only option in this matchup. If you’re hesitant about laying 14 points consider this alternative. The Packers are -3.5 in the first quarter, and have outscored their opposition 95-34 in first 15 minutes this season.

• Saints vs Packers pick: Packers First Quarter -3.5 (-110)