Ravens vs Texans Odds, Picks & Predictions for Christmas Day

• The Baltimore Ravens are five-point road favorites over the Houston Texans on Christmas Day
• The spread has moved 1.5 points in Baltimore’s favor since opening lines were released
• Check out the Ravens vs Texans odds, picks and predictions for Christmas Day

The Baltimore Ravens (10–5, 5-3 away) travel to Houston on Christmas Day to face the Texans (9-6, 5-2 home). This is a potential Wild Card Weekend matchup, despite both teams currently leading their respective divisions. Houston has already clinched the AFC South, but Baltimore could still wind up second in the AFC North even if they win out. Online sportsbooks are projecting a Ravens victory on Wednesday, as are bettors. Baltimore is listed as the chalk in the latest football betting lines, and the line keeps moving in the Ravens’ direction.

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans Odds

Baltimore opened up as 3.5-point favorites but that line didn’t last long. They’re now up to -5.o, with 94% of the money backing them to cover. Total-wise, the game opened at 46.5, but has since been bet up half a point. That number has brought under bettors out in full force, something we simply don’t agree with. Under 47 is currently drawing 58% of the wagers, and 74% of the total money according to the NFL public betting percentages. 

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Kickoff for this holiday clash is set for 4:30pm ET from NRG Stadium, in Houston, TX, with Netflix providing the broadcast coverage.

Texans Ravaged by Injuries

A big reason why bettors are down on this Texans club is their injury situation. Houston lost three starters in their Week 16 defeat in Kansas City, including wideout Tank Dell. That leaves another big hole in the wide receiver room that’s already down Stefon Diggs. Desperate times call for desperate measures, as the team announced Monday they’ve signed former Raven Diontae Johnson.

Respect to Tank Dell for holding onto the ball while his leg is breaking

Tough.

pic.twitter.com/QU6BgJwYp2

— NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) December 21, 2024

The Texans also lost starting right guard Shaq Mason and safety Jimmie Ward. Houston’s offensive line was already in shambles, ranking 20th in pass block win rate, and 26th in sacks allowed.

Houston’s Defense Must Step Up

The loss of Ward hurts a defense that tops the DVOA rankings. Houston is top-9 in scoring defense, and fourth in yards allowed. Wednesday’s challenge is tough, and for them to have success they’ll need to shut down the Ravens rushing attack.

Baltimore ripped off 220 yards on the ground in a win over the Steelers, raising their league leading average to 181 rushing yards per game. Derrick Henry led the charge as usual, but a head injury to Justice Hill will likely leave them down a man in the backfield.

That could put more on Lamar Jackson’s shoulders, who in any other year would be running away with top spot in the NFL MVP odds. Jackson has already set a career-high with 37 touchdown passes, and his passer rating and QBR are higher than they’ve ever been.

“Lamar Jackson is definitely the MVP in my mind.” – DeMeco Ryans pic.twitter.com/uqrEOaaBNs

— Chancellor Johnson (@ChancellorTV) December 23, 2024

Jackson faced Houston twice in 2023, and led Baltimore to a pair of convincing wins. He had a quiet game in a 25-9 Week 1 victory, and then erupted in their Divisional Round playoff matchup, throwing for 2 TD and rushing for two more.

Ravens vs Texans Prediction

These two teams are polar opposites when it comes to total betting. No team has seen more games fly over the total than the Ravens. Houston meanwhile, is a league-high 10-5 to the under. With the Texans down another key offensive piece, Joe Mixon should see plenty of action, which could open up some opportunities in the play action passing game.

The Ravens rank 25th in QBR on opponent play action passes. Only six QB’s have more play action passing yards than Stroud this season, and if he and Nico Collins are on the same page from the jump, they can definitely exploit a secondary that’s given up the second most yards in football.

On the other side, few teams have been able to slow down Jackson and Co. They’ve put up 30+ points in nine of their past 12 meetings, while Lamar has tossed 27 TD in his last nine starts alone.

Ravens vs Texans Pick: Over 47 (-110)