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Ravens vs Chiefs Public Betting & Money Splits for NFL Season-Opener

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Sep 5, 2024 · 11:23 AM PDT

Lamar Jackson throws with pressure in his face.
Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) prepares to throw the ball as Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill (23) defends during the first half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • Bettors are on the Ravens as 3-point underdogs ahead of the NFL season-opener versus the Chiefs
  • Under 47 is drawing the vast majority of the tickets on the total
  • See all the Ravens vs Chiefs public betting splits for the NFL Season Opener on September 5

The NFL is back, and schedule makers have spoiled us with a heavyweight tilt in the season opener. Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game.

Which way are bettors leaning ahead of tonight’s kick-off? The table below sets out the Ravens vs Chiefs public-betting splits for Thursday Night Football.

Ravens vs Chiefs Betting Splits & Percentages

Team Spread ATS Handle% ATS Bet% Total Points O/U Handle% O/U Bet% Moneyline ML Handle% ML Bet%
Baltimore Ravens +3 65% 65% 47 39% 19% +130 67% 25%
Kansas City Chiefs -3 35% 35% 47 61% 81% -150 33% 75%

KC opened as a 2.5-point favorite when the Week 1 NFL odds were initially released, but since then that number has climbed to -3. Catching a field goal with Jackson is apparently too good to pass up, as his Ravens are drawing 65% of the against-the-spread handle and wagers per the NFL public betting trends.

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Public-betting splits as of 2:15 pm ET, September 5, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the top DraftKings promos for NFL Week 1. 

NFL Spread Betting Splits Favor Ravens

Historically, Jackson has been an ATS cash cow as an underdog. He’s 12-1-1 as a dog over the course of his career, covering seven straight times dating back three years. Going on the road has not phased Jackson one bit, as he’s compiled a 68% cover rate (25-12-2) in six NFL seasons.

Also working in Baltimore’s favor is head coach John Harbaugh’s against-the-spread prowess in Week 1. In 16 season openers, Harbaugh’s Ravens are 12-4 ATS, the second best mark among head coaches in the Super Bowl era.

Despite those glowing trends, there’s plenty of reasons to back the Chiefs as well. Not only is Kansas City the two-time defending champ, and the  favorite in the Super Bowl 59 odds, they’re also riding the NFL’s longest ATS cover streak at six games.

Everyone knows Mahomes as an underdog is an auto-bet, but he’s been very profitable as a short favorite as well. When laying 3-points or fewer, Mahomes-led teams are 11-7 ATS (61%).

Betting on the defending champs has historically been a sharp move in Week 1, as they’ve posted a 13-7-3 against the spread mark in the last 23 years.

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Ravens vs Chiefs Total Favors a Low-Scoring Game

When you think Jackson vs Mahomes, offense immediately comes to mind. Yet, last season both team’s success was predicated on strong defenses. The Ravens and Chiefs finished as the top-two scoring defenses in 2023, and most bettors are expecting this contest to underwhelm offensively.

Top 5 NFL Scoring Defenses in 2023

Team Rank
Baltimore Ravens 1
Kansas City Chiefs 2
San Francisco 49ers 3
Buffalo Bills 4
Dallas Cowboys 5

The total opened up at 46.5 and has fluctuated between that number and 47 all summer. 47 is where the market currently sits, and most bettors are hammering the under. Currently, that side of the total is drawing a whopping 81% of the tickets.

For what it’s worth, the NFL over under trends agree. Primetime unders are 70-42-1 over the past two seasons, including 35-23 last season. KC contests were 12-5 to the under last regular season, with eight of their nine home games falling short of the total.

NFL Moneyline Handle Favors Baltimore

As of Wednesday afternoon, more money had been bet on Baltimore’s moneyline than any other Week 1 underdog. 67% of the moneyline handle is backing Jackson and company in this contest, and that number is the result of just 25% of the moneyline tickets. That’s typically an indication of sharp action, as wise guys tend to wager much more than casual bettors.

Jackson’s impeccable record as a dog is the main driver. He’s 10-4 straight up as an underdog in his career, which is the best winning percentage among any quarterback with at least six starts.

However, bet against Mahomes at your own risk. The three-time Super Bowl champ is 36-11 all-time at home, and 20-4 overall in the first four weeks of an NFL season.

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