Rams Still Super Bowl 53 Favorites After Loss to Saints

• The LA Rams’ eight-game winning streak came to an end in Week 9 with a 45-35 loss in New Orleans
• Could this be the time to back the Rams for Super Bowl 53?
• Or have the Saints proven worthy as contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl?

After the Los Angeles Rams suffered their first defeat of the season against New Orleans their average Super Bowl 53 odds are longer than they’ve been since September 25 when they were +400.

Average Odds to Win Super Bowl 53

See that little climb on the graph? Their odds may not have moved much, but they did move in the wrong direction. And even though they remain the favorites, there is at least a little better payout in betting the Rams now.

So at +360, does LA offer value?

Super Bowl 53 Odds

Have The Rams Been Exposed?

The Rams vs Saints was everything it was hyped up to be.

It did expose the Rams’ defense, though, that failed to contain any of the Saints’ stars. Drew Brees threw four TDs, Alvin Kamara ended with three total TDs, and Michael Thomas set a Saints’ single-game receiving record with 211 yards and one TD of his own.

As disappointing as the result may be in LA, you could likely see this coming. Sunday was the Rams’ fourth road game in five weeks. During that run of games, they just barely escaped with close two-point wins on two occasions.

LA can take solace in the fact that they didn’t give up when down 35-17 at the half and fought back to tie game 35-35 in the fourth quarter. The momentum could have also swung differently had Johnny Hekker’s apparent first down on a Rams’ fake field goal been ruled differently.

@NFL @NFLOfficiating go ahead and start typing up that written apology for saying Hekker didn’t get the first down, even after review. #Rams #Saints #NOvsLAR pic.twitter.com/0R8yIhYVTz

— Chris (@Liquid_Swordz) November 4, 2018

LA should return to winning ways soon, as they’re heavy favorites at home to Seattle this week.

They also only face two teams who currently have winning records over the rest of their schedule. One of those teams are the fellow 8-1 Kansas City Chiefs. But take the Chiefs out of the equation and their remaining opponents currently have a combined 20-29 record.

Is Home Field Up For Grabs in the NFC?

For New Orleans to keep pace at the top of the NFC, their pass defense will need to improve. While they currently rank first in YPG versus the run, it’s the complete opposite against the pass where they rank 31st.

"The New Orleans Saints, they're for real. That was fun to watch."

Joe @Buck and @TroyAikman react to the Saints take down of the Rams in an NFC thriller. pic.twitter.com/NAa3PdzEhE

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 5, 2018

That could prove problematic considering they’ll face several dangerous QBs the rest of their season. The list includes Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton (twice). It also includes a Bucs team that has already shown they can beat the Saints this season.

If we assume the Saints will be the Rams’ closest competitor at seasons end for the NFC crown, you have to consider they end the season with three road games, before home dates with Pittsburgh and Carolina.

That ending is vastly different to LA’s who should be able to coast to the finish line against the Cardinals and 49ers.

Round 1 (2017): Rams
Round 2 (2018): Saints pic.twitter.com/VIHJPOmCVa

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 5, 2018

Should You Buy The Rams?

The decision on whether now is the time to take a position on the Rams likely comes down to how you feel about their chances two weeks from now in Mexico against the Chiefs. Estadio Azteca in Mexico City will host the two Super Bowl contenders on MNF.

The #NFLMexico🇲🇽 game this year: pic.twitter.com/Q8LRaPDiJG

— gill (@gillwh0) November 5, 2018

Much like the Rams, the Chiefs have already lost to another Super Bowl contender, coming up short 43-40 to New England. If the Rams beat Seattle and follow it up with a win over the Chiefs, their odds could end up the shortest they’ve been all season.

Should they lose to KC, they could be longer than they stand today.

Back to work.#MondayMotivation pic.twitter.com/W6GCJW7yRH

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 5, 2018

That November 19 matchup should be another thriller, but I’ll lean towards a Rams’ win.

LA will hold the advantage in defense (13th in YPG versus KC’s 31st ranking) and could be more accustomed to the likely hot temperatures of Mexico City. By proximity to Mexico, and with LA’s large Spanish population, the Rams could find themselves as the default “home team”.

For these reasons I’d say now is likely your best chance to “buy the dip” in the Rams’ odds.