Raiders vs Patriots Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits (Week 5)

• The 2-2 Patriots are a 3.5 point home favorite against the 3-1 Raiders in Week 5 action
• The public is backing the underdog Raiders in this intriguing matchup
• See my favorite picks for Raiders vs Patriots on Sunday, October 11th

The Las Vegas Raiders (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS, 2-2 O/U) head to Foxborough, MA, for a compelling AFC tilt against the New England Patriots (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) in Week 5. This battle kicks off at 1:00 PM ET / 10:00 AM PT on Sunday, broadcasting on CBS from Gillette Stadium.

Las Vegas enters as a road underdog while boasting an unblemished 4-0 ATS record, leaning on star edge rusher Maxx Crosby to disrupt timing in the pocket. New England will aim to rely on its stifling defense to dictate field position and control time of possession. Keep reading for my preview of this contest and my selections.

Raiders vs Patriots Odds

Moneyline from Kalshi; spread and total from BetMGM on Oct 10. Claim your sign-up offer at BetMGM today.

The Patriots are laying 3.5 points at home, requiring a victory by at least four points to cover the number. I sourced the moneyline prices from Kalshi, which offer better payouts than standard sportsbooks, pricing New England at -177 and Las Vegas at +170.

A $20 moneyline wager on the underdog Raiders yields a $54.00 total payout ($34.00 profit). Placing that same $20 on the favored Patriots returns $31.30 ($11.30 profit).

Looking at early NFL odds movement, the point spread has remained rigid at 3.5 since opening. The total experienced minor adjustment, dropping a half-point from 45.5 down to the current 45.

Raiders vs Patriots Predictions & Best Bets

When diving into my sports betting picks for this AFC clash, situational trends heavily favor the home team. The Patriots are a remarkable 9-2 (.818) straight up in Foxborough over their last eleven games.

New England also consistently steps up against quality competition, boasting a 5-1 (.833) record over their last six games against opponents with a winning record. Conversely, Las Vegas struggles mightily against stout units, stumbling to a 1-13 (.071) mark against top-10 scoring defenses over their last 14 contests.

ATS Pick: New England Patriots -3.5 (+100 / 50¢ at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Spread Prediction

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Kalshi

Patriots -3.5

50%

Predict

Laying the hook at 3.5 points presents the most intriguing wager on the board. The Patriots play highly disciplined, low-mistake football at Gillette Stadium, where they have allowed just 16.0 points per game across their last six home outings. While the Raiders have covered four straight to start the year, this road spot represents a sharp regression trap against an aggressive New England front seven that limits explosive aerial plays.

Las Vegas historically folds against disciplined coaching, making New England at even-money on the 3.5-point spread the mathematically sound play to cover.

Game-Total Pick: Under 45.5 Points (-104 / 51¢ at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

O/U Prediction

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Kalshi

Under 45.5 Points

51%

Predict

While Las Vegas averages 28.8 points per game, this track points squarely toward a lower-scoring affair. The Patriots manage just 16.3 points per game on offense (third worst in the NFL) and suffer from poor situational finishing, converting only 44.4% of trips inside the 20-yard line into touchdowns.

That offensive limitation has fueled three Unders in New England’s four games this season, with their first three contests producing combined point totals of just 23, 23, and 41.

Public Betting Splits

In the NFL public betting splits, bettors are heavily backing the underdog Raiders to cover the 3.5 points, drawing 73.4% of the tickets and 79.1% of the total money. My prediction of New England -3.5 fades this overwhelming public momentum.

The total features a similar one-sided handle. Wager counts show 73.4% expecting the game to go Over 45 points, backed by 83.1% of the money.

The moneyline presents a textbook sharp vs public scenario. The general public backs the home favorite, placing 64.1% of bets on New England. However, professional markers disagree, flooding 63.5% of the actual money onto the Raiders to pull off the road upset.

Team Stats Comparison

Head-to-Head History

The Raiders ride a three-game winning streak against the Patriots into this matchup.

Las Vegas arrives following a tight 30-27 loss to Kansas City, where they racked up 437 total yards but suffered from poor ball security. New England enters fresh off a 29-26 upset win at Buffalo, generating 405 total yards of offense.