NFL Props for Week 1 – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday

• There are 14 NFL games scheduled for Sunday of Week 1, providing plenty of player props to choose from
• We’ve highlighted five player props to bet and a handful of anytime touchdown scorers to target
• See all the player props for Week 1 and Matt’s best bets below

We managed to live through 214 long days of being unable to bet NFL player props in real games. But man, do these couple days since the season-opener feel long!!

I’ve been scanning the sportsbooks for bad lines all week and have found far too many that I like. Safe to say, I cannot wait for Week 1 to continue on Sunday. I’ve gathered all the major NFL player props below and highlighted the ones that I’ll be betting under the table.

You can quickly jump to a section using the links below:

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Best Bets | Touchdown Props

Week 1 NFL Player Props

Odds as of September 11

It should come as no surprise that the biggest line on a passing total for Week 1 is Patrick Mahomes’ 312.5. Mahomes is also just one of three quarterbacks whose passing touchdown line is set at 2.5, with Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen being the other two. The lowest passing total belongs to Tyrod Taylor, whose line is set at just 211.5.

The biggest rushing total is the 100.5 being set for Titans running back Derrick Henry, while the biggest receiving line belongs to Calvin Ridley and Stefon Diggs at 89.5. Both of the Chiefs top options, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, are close behind with a line of 88.5.

1) Michael Pittman Jr Takes Over Colts Receiving Corps

Last season, the Seattle Seahawks ranked 31st against the pass. In an attempt to remedy that, they swapped Shaq Griffin for DJ Reed. Also read, their secondary still isn’t great in spite of having one of the best safeties in the league in Jamal Adams.

Now let me tell you the Colts starting receivers: Michael Pittman Jr, Zach Pascal, and Parris Campbell. TY Hilton is opening the season on the IR. It’s hard to imagine Pittman not being Carson Wentz’ go-to option on Sunday.

Last season Pittman averaged 47.1 receiving yards per game in the Colts’ final nine games. This was while playing second to Hilton for all but one game. What happened in that one game, which was Pittman’s second game back from injury? He saw seven targets that he turned into 56 yards.

The Seahawks were very good against the run last year, only allowing 3.9 yards per carry. I foresee them forcing Indianapolis to throw more often than they’d like to, and I like Pittman to be on the receiving end of plenty of those looks.

Pick: Michael Pittman over 48.5 (-115) – 0.5 units

2) Raheem Mostert Starts Season Off with a Bang

I know everyone is hyped on Trey Sermon. Let me be clear, I’m not here to say you shouldn’t be. What I’m saying is there’s going to be plenty of opportunity for both Niners running backs this week.

San Francisco heads into Week 1 as an 8.5-point favorite over the Lions. This is expected to be one of the best teams in the league taking on one of the worst teams in the league. The only reason this spread isn’t higher is because sportsbooks are giving Detroit some credit for being at home. What happens in blowouts? Teams run the ball more frequently.

Raheem Mostert on his offseason training:
“Yeah, I gained more muscle mass and stuff like that and my weight as well. I’m feeling great…I’m feeling like I’m at my best right now. Just can't wait to go out there and show you guys what I'm capable of.” #49ers pic.twitter.com/zLeG9y1T6T

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) September 10, 2021

Raheem Mostert played in three games last season where the Niners were laying at least seven points. He averaged 79.3 rushing yards per game in those contests, eclipsing 64.5 in two of them. Mostert’s line for carries is set at 15.5 with the over seeing -120 odds. The 29-year-old averages 5.64 yards per carry for his career, so if he gets even close to that many carries, he’s a very strong bet to go over his rushing total.

Pick: Raheem Mostert over 64.5 rushing yards (-115) – 1.5 units

3) Jalen Hurts Goes Over Completions

In the three games Jalen Hurts started and finished last season, he completed 17, 24, and 21 passes. His highest completion percentage in any of those weeks was just 56.7%. In other words, he threw the ball a lot in those games.

With a better receiving corps, which now features DeVonta Smith, a year of experience under his belt, and an offense that is now tailored to his strengths, I like Hurts to surpass his completion total of 20.5. I especially like it when I’m getting +105 odds.

The Falcons also had the third-most passes attempted against them last season, and believe their offense will force the Eagles to be aggressive all day.

Pick: Jalen Hurts over 20.5 completions (+105) – 0.5 units

5) Kyle Pitts Is Not a Typical Tight End

The Atlanta Falcons did not draft a traditional tight end fourth-overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. They drafted an extremely talented wide receiver who designates as a tight end. This is a dude who physically compares to Calvin Johnson.

With Julio Jones gone, Calvin Ridley slots in as the number one target. But I’m not buying into the Russell Gage breakout chatter. Pitts will be the #2 target, and even though Atlanta is now an Arthur Smith team, I still believe that second option will get fed in this offense.

When All Pro WR Roddy White was asked about Kyle Pitts tonight he said, “weapon.” #Falcons #DirtyBirds

— Maria Martin (@Ria_Martin) September 10, 2021

Jones and Ridley played in five games together in 2020 where they each played at least 50% of the offensive snaps – they each left a few games early due to injury. In those five games, Ridley averaged 9.2 targets and Jones averaged nine. Pitts is going to have a game!

Pick: Kyle Pitts over 46.5 receiving yards (-115) – 0.5 units

Week 1 Touchdown Props

Based off the odds, Derrick Henry is the player most likely to score a touchdown in Week 1. His odds of finding the endzone are a short -225. However, Christian McCaffrey is the player most likely to score the first touchdown in his respective game. CMC’s odds to score the first touchdown are +400, while Henry’s are +450.

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

1. Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+275): I truly thought this was a mistake by the sportsbooks. Hurts had a rushing touchdown in two of four starts last year. He carried the ball an average of 11.5 times for 68 yards per game. This is a ridiculous line. He’s as short as +175 at some books. (1 unit)
2. Kyler Murray anytime touchdown (+130): Murray had ten rushing touchdowns through the first nine games last season, finding the endzone in all but one. The Cardinals were 6-3 at this point. Then Murray was dealing with some shoulder injuries and only rushed for one touchdown over the final seven games as Arizona went 2-5 in that stretch. Using his legs in the red zone leads to team success. (1 unit)
3. Nick Chubb anytime touchdown (+100): You’ll find this line as short as -165 at some sportsbooks, so jump on this value at DraftKings. Chubb scored in nine of 12 games for Cleveland last year, with one of those misses being a game he got injured in early. Cleveland knows they have to slow this game down with their ground game. (1 unit)
4. Corey Davis anytime touchdown (+240): Davis is the favorite target of his rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. The fifth-overall pick from the 2017 NFL Draft knows how to get open and presents a big target for his QB. With this price as short as +175 elsewhere, I’m sprinkling a little on Davis to find the endzone at some point. (0.5 units)