Patriots vs Bills Picks, Touchdown Props & Betting Splits (Week 4)
By Michael Schwartz in NFL News
Published:
- Bills put undefeated record up against New England
- Patriots banged up defense faces difficult task
- Why taking the Under makes sense in this AFC East clash
The undefeated Buffalo Bills (3-0 SU, 2-0 home) welcome the New England Patriots (1-2 SU, 0-2 away) to Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, for an AFC East divisional matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for today at 1:00 PM ET, with CBS providing the national broadcast.
Buffalo enters this contest as a heavy home favorite, riding a three-game win streak and boasting an explosive offense that averages 33.7 points per game.
New England arrives as a significant road underdog desperate to keep its season from spiraling after a recent blowout defeat. While the Patriots still maintain a path to the playoffs, their chances rely heavily on pulling off big upsets against superior divisional foes. Elite quarterback Josh Allen commands a Buffalo unit that converts an outstanding 75.0% of its red-zone trips, posing a massive challenge for a New England defense missing key starters.
This preview breaks down the matchup from a sports betting perspective, analyzing the latest statistical trends and public money splits to uncover value on the board.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Odds
Odds as of October 2, 2026, at 2:05 PM ET from BetMGM. Claim your BetMGM promo now.
Oddsmakers expect Buffalo to come away with a victory, attaching a steep -333 price to the Bills on the moneyline. When removing the sportsbook’s vig to calculate normalized probabilities, Buffalo holds a substantial 74.0% true probability of winning the game outright. New England’s vig-free win probability sits at 26.0%.
Bettors tracking NFL odds will note that a $10 wager on the heavily favored Bills yields a total payout of $13.00, resulting in a $3.00 profit. Placing that same $10 bet on the underdog Patriots returns a much larger payout of $37.00 ($27.00 in profit) should they pull off the upset.
Looking at how the lines have moved since opening, the spread has seen a slight shift. Buffalo opened as a full 7-point favorite, but early betting action pushed the number down to -6.5. The game’s total has held steady, remaining exactly where it opened at 48.5 points.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction & Best Bets
Buffalo has been an absolute fortress at home, boasting a staggering 18-2 (.900) outright record in front of their home fans over their last 20 regular-season games. Furthermore, the Bills know how to handle struggling opponents, going 7-1 (.875) against teams with a losing record over their last eight matchups.
Their high-octane offense enters Week 4 averaging 33.7 points per game (4th in the NFL) and 417.0 total yards per game. Powered by a league-leading 54.5% third-down conversion rate (18-of-33) and a lethal 75.0% red-zone touchdown rate (9 TDs on 12 trips, scoring points on 100% of visits), Buffalo presents massive hurdles for the visiting Patriots.
Conversely, New England is off to a sluggish 1-2 start, losing both road contests while being outscored 48-16 away from Foxborough (8.0 PPG on the road). Their offense has been dismal overall, managing just 12.0 points per game (tied for 31st) and converting a league-worst 16.7% of red-zone trips into touchdowns (1 TD on 6 visits).
Ball security has compounded those issues, with New England already committing 8 giveaways (-5 turnover differential). While situational trends highlight the Patriots’ historical resilience, seeing them win their last five games following a loss (1.000) and going 4-1 (.800) against winning opponents over their last five such spots, their current lack of offensive firepower makes this trip to Orchard Park a daunting assignment.
ATS Pick: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-108/52¢ at Kalshi)
Despite New England’s past knack for bouncing back after defeats, the talent and execution disparity on offense is simply too wide to ignore. Buffalo is already 2-0 ATS at Highmark Stadium this season, covering against Detroit (-5.5) and the Chargers (-7).
With Buffalo averaging a +21.7 PPG scoring margin over New England (33.7 PPG vs. 12.0 PPG) and converting third downs at a 54.5% clip compared to New England’s 32.5%, the Bills hold a massive structural edge in drive sustainability. Expect Buffalo’s top-five scoring offense to control the tempo and pull away, making them a strong play to cover the 6.5-point spread at home.
Game-Total Pick: Under 48.5 (+104/49¢ at Polymarket)
While Buffalo’s offense can put up points in bunches, New England’s severe offensive woes make it difficult to envision them contributing enough to push this game past 48.5 points. Patriots games have averaged a modest 29.0 total combined points this season (23, 23, and 41), staying Under 48.5 in 100% of their games (3-0). On the road, New England has managed just one offensive touchdown all year.
Buffalo’s defense is coming off a stout Week 3 home performance where they limited the Chargers to 16 points and 226 passing yards. If New England is held to the 10–14 point range, Buffalo would need to approach 35+ points on their own to threaten the Over. Getting plus-money (+104) on the Under offers exceptional statistical value.
Anytime Touchdown Pick: James Cook (-117/54¢ on Kalshi)
For prop bettors, looking toward the Kalshi prediction market offers standout value. James Cook has been an unstoppable engine in Buffalo’s backfield, scoring a touchdown in consecutive home games while racking up 135 rushing yards (1 TD) against Detroit and 154 rushing yards (1 TD) against the Chargers on 6.42 yards per carry at Highmark Stadium this season.
Historically, Cook has feasted on New England, especially in their last meeting, when he torched the Patriots for 3 total touchdowns (2 rushing, 1 receiving) and 107 rushing yards. With New England’s run defense surrendering 137 rushing yards to Jacksonville in Week 3 and now missing its top interior run-stuffer, Cook’s primary goal-line share in a 75% red-zone TD offense makes 54¢ (implied \~54% probability) an outstanding wager.
Team Betting Trends for Patriots vs Bills
- Buffalo is 18-2 (.900) at home over their last 20 games.
- Buffalo is 7-1 (.875) against opponents with a losing record over their last 8 games.
- Buffalo is 8-2 (.800) overall over their last 10 games.
- New England is 5-0 (1.000) following a loss over their last 5 instances.
- New England is 9-2 (.818) on the road over their last 11 games.
- New England is 0-2 (.000) on the road this season.
NE vs BUF Public Betting Splits
When diving into the betting splits for this AFC East clash, the betting public and the larger money wagers are firmly aligned. A commanding 76.4% of the betting handle backs Buffalo to cover the spread, supported by 66.3% of the spread tickets. This heavy influx of money on the Bills aligns with expectations that the home favorite will handle a struggling Patriots squad.
The moneyline market paints an even more lopsided picture. Bettors are heavily invested in an outright Buffalo victory, with a staggering 93.4% of the money and 93.4% of all tickets placed on the Bills. New England has generated just 6.6% of the stake.
As for the game’s total, action leans toward a lower-scoring affair. The Under has attracted 60.2% of the money and 55.9% of the tickets. Because the majority of both the money and the ticket percentages favor the exact same sides across all markets, there is no sharp versus public divide to report for this matchup.
Team Stats Comparison: Offense vs Defense
How do the two teams stack up against each other? This clash presents a classic strength-versus-strength scenario on one side of the ball, while offering a battle of weaknesses on the other.
Buffalo boasts a highly efficient offensive identity. The Bills average a dominant 33.7 points per game behind an attack churning out 262.0 passing yards and 155.0 rushing yards. Where Buffalo truly separates itself is in situational football, converting an elite 54.5% of their third-down attempts.
This high-powered offense will be tested by a rigid New England defensive front holding opponents to just 17.0 points per game. The Patriots are particularly suffocating against the pass, yielding only 189.7 yards per game through the air while allowing opponents to convert just 34.3% of third-down attempts. Allen (O/U 237.5 passing yards) will need to lean on wide receiver DJ Moore and running back James Cook to find cracks in the coverage scheme.
On the flip side, New England’s stagnant offense faces Buffalo’s yielding defense. The Patriots struggle mightily to move the chains, averaging a meager 12.0 points per game with an abysmal 16.7% touchdown rate in the red-zone.
Fortunately for New England, the Bills surrender 361.3 total yards per game. Buffalo is especially vulnerable through the air, giving up 275.7 passing yards per contest. This soft defensive backfield provides an opportunity for quarterback Drake Maye to find a rhythm targeting tight end Hunter Henry and running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
Recent H2H History
Despite Buffalo’s dominance this season, the Patriots have surprisingly held the upper hand in this rivalry recently. Over their last three matchups, New England compiled a 2-1 (.667) record against the Bills.
However, looking at current form heading into Week 4 reveals a vast difference in momentum. The Bills remain at home fresh off a 24-16 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Buffalo racked up 350 total yards and proved resilient enough to secure the victory despite an uncharacteristically sloppy performance that included five turnovers.
Conversely, the Patriots are reeling after a decisive 35-6 blowout loss on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars. New England failed to score a single touchdown and repeatedly derailed drives with three turnovers.
Injury Report & Impact
Both rosters are dealing with significant injury concerns heading into this Week 4 matchup.
For Buffalo, the primary concern lies on the perimeter. Both starting outside wide receivers are questionable. If either player is inactive, Allen will lean heavily on tight end Dalton Kincaid and slot receiver Khalil Shakir to move the chains. Defensively, being without starting cornerback Christian Benford offers a softer secondary for New England to exploit.
New England faces potentially catastrophic absences on defense. Losing premier cover corner Christian Gonzalez and top run-stuffer Christian Barmore against an offense averaging 401.7 total yards per game is a recipe for disaster. Buffalo’s interior rushing attack will have a distinct advantage.
Highmark Stadium Weather Forecast
- Venue: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
- Stadium Type: Outdoor
- Playing Surface: Turf
Highmark Stadium is an open-air venue, meaning both teams will be fully exposed to whatever conditions materialize. Bettors should check the local Orchard Park forecast as game time approaches. Significant wind or precipitation could dramatically impact the passing volume for both quarterbacks while placing a heavier emphasis on the ground game and field position battles.
Patriots vs Bills Game Information
- Date: October 4, 2026
- Kickoff Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
- TV/Streaming Channel: CBS
- Week: 4
- Matchup Type: AFC East Divisional Game
- Playing Surface: Turf
