Parlay These Week 5 Longshot NFL Player Props for Big Potential Payout

• NFL player prop milestones allow you to take a swing at a bigger payout for your good read on a player outperforming expectations
• Three players are showing strong signs of posting big performances in Week 5
• See the three player prop milestones I am parlaying for +1506 odds

Week 5 of the NFL season marks the beginning of bye weeks. Thankfully, it’s just two teams on bye and we still have plenty of the league’s star performers, as well as vulnerable defenses, taking the field. In fact, there are two games where sportsbooks are expecting shootouts, thanks to the combination of leaky defenses and players capable of filling up the stat sheet.

I have targeted both of those matchups – Lions at Cardinals and Bills at Rams – in my longshot NFL player prop parlay for Week 5, along with one other player I can’t stop betting. While I could simply take the overs on the standard markets for these players, they are showing such strong signals of outperforming their lines that I want to make sure I get paid out properly for my good reads.

That’s why I have taken alternate lines, or milestones, if you prefer, for all three player props, giving me a stronger payout in exchange for a higher number for these players to achieve in their respective stat categories. Check out the three players I am loading into my longshot NFL parlay below.

NFL Player Prop Parlay

These three players, DK Metcalf, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Matthew Stafford, are showing the best signals to put forth big performances in Week 5. While I will certainly be betting each of them as singles, I am also parlaying these NFL player props for +1506 odds.

This means a $10 bet would stand to win $150.60. You can find these odds, which are the best available among sportsbooks at theScore Bet. You can sign up now and claim a great welcome bonus if you’re not already registered.

Let me get into why I like each of these three NFL player props in Week 5.

DK Metcalf 70+ Receiving Yards

• Week 5 Opponent: Colts (29th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 52.5

DK Metcalf finally broke out last week, recording 115 receiving yards on five receptions. It was his first game of the season with more than 40 receiving yards. But there was nothing out of the ordinary with the nine targets he saw, as he has seen at least nine targets in three of four games now.

Metcalf ranks second in the NFL in unrealized air yards with 308, so the 115-yard performance last week should not have come as a huge surprise. He was a prime positive regression candidate. The Steelers WR is seeing fantastic opportunity from his QB Aaron Rodgers, who has fed him a 38.5% air yards share and 22.9% target share – good for a 0.613 WOPR.

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I don’t know that we should start expecting 100+ yards from Metcalf on a weekly basis, but sportsbooks haven’t really adjusted their lines following his breakout. We can still get +187 odds on him posting just 70+ receiving yards.

His Week 5 opponent presents a great opportunity to build on his success too. The Colts allow the fourth-most attempted deep passes, seeing opposing QBs throw 23 passes of 20+ air yards, and have given up the fourth-most passing yards per game this season.

I also like that Michael Pittman Jr will not be suiting up, leaving one less reliable target for Rodgers.

Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ Rushing Yards

• Week 5 Opponent: Cardinals (20th vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Line: 90.5

Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off his quietest rushing performance of the season, only managing 46 yards on 15 carries against the Panthers last week. The Lions also lost the game and are entering Week 5 facing a lot of scrutiny. When the Lions have their backs against the wall, they lean on their best player: Gibbs.

The Lions’ explosive RB is seeing 83.3% of the early-down carry share in Detroit, and benefits from 1.54 yards before contact per carry. He has been showcasing his elusive style with a 31.3% missed tackle forced rate, and a 15% 10+ yard explosive run rate.

He also has a great matchup, as Arizona allows 3.02 yards after contact per carry and miss tackles at a 20.5% rate. The two capable offenses they have faced this season, the 49ers and Seahawks, totaled 140 and 162 yards on the ground – their other two came against the Chargers and Giants (without Jaxson Dart).

Gibbs only has one 100+ yard rushing game this season, but all of the data suggests a prime opportunity to record his second this afternoon, especially when you factor in Detroit being 5.5-point favorites.

Matthew Stafford 300+ Passing Yards

• Week 5 Opponent: Bills (27th vs Pass)
• Standard Passing Line: 276.5

If you throw aside the Rams’ season-opener in Australia, Matthew Stafford is averaging 344.7 passing yards per game, and has surpassed 300 yards in each of those three games.

Stafford is attempting 5.3 deep attempts per game and has an aDOT of 9.6, which tells you how often the Rams’ QB is pushing the ball down the field. He has attempted an insane 106 passes over their last two games, both of which came against offenses far inferior to the Bills offense they will face Monday night.

This is not good for the Bills defense, who already gives up the sixth-most passing yards per game. They have allowed 274 yards to CJ Stroud, 327 to Jared Goff, and 269 to Drake Maye this season. None of these QBs see the same volume as Stafford, nor do they push the ball down the field with anywhere near the same effectiveness.

The 54.5 over/under for points scored in the game suggests we’re in for a shootout, which certainly bodes well for passing.

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