Opening Bills vs Chiefs Odds for AFC Championship Game
By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football
Published:
- The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game
- The Chiefs have opened as slight home favorites
- See the opening Bills vs Chiefs odds for AFC Championship Game on Jan. 26
After a thrilling Divisional Playoff weekend, the two-time defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 9-0 home, 8-10 ATS) are set to host the Buffalo Bills (14-4, 5-4 away, 12-7 ATS) in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs are in the AFC title game for the seventh straight season, while the Bills are making their first appearance since the 2020-21 season and just their second since 1993.
Opening Bills vs Chiefs Odds for AFC Championship
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +1.5 (-115) | -105 | O 49.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -1.5 (-105) | -115 | U 49.5 (-110) |
The opening Bills vs Chiefs odds establish Kansas City as a 1.5-point home favorite and -115 on the moneyline. The Bills come back as slim -105 road underdogs, while the over/under has opened at 49.5 with -110 odds each way.
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The Chiefs head into conference-championship weekend as the +250 second-favorite in the Super Bowl 59 odds, closely followed by the Bills at +260. The Eagles are +175 favorites with the Commanders +650 longshots. Philadelphia opened as a 4.5-point home favorite in the Commanders vs Eagles odds.
Chiefs’ Path to the AFC Championship Game
As the AFC’s #1 seed, the Chiefs received a bye to the Divisional Round, where they were matched-up with the Houston Texans for the second time this year. The Chiefs offense looked shockingly anemic, generating just 212 yards of total offense. Patrick Mahomes was sacked an eye-popping eight times.
Luckily for Mahomes and company, the KC defense came to play. The unit held CJ Stroud to just 187 passing yards on 19-of-28 completions and allowed just one touchdown in the game. The Chiefs had a 23-12 lead in the waning seconds before conceding a safety in order to run off as much clock as possible. But with Kansas City closing as a 9.5-point favorite, the safety generated a massive bad beat for a certain group of Chiefs bettors.
Bills’ Path to the AFC Championship Game
Buffalo dominated the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round, 31-7, absolutely shutting down Bo Nix and the Denver offense. The Broncos mustered just 224 total yards against a Buffalo defense that had looked vulnerable at times during an injury-plagued regular season. Josh Allen was nearly perfect, going 20-of-26 for 272 yards and two touchdowns through the air (plus another 46 yards on the ground), while James Cook added 120 yards and a TD on the ground on 23 carries.
In the Divisional Round, Buffalo survived a tough test from the Baltimore Ravens (27-25), taking a 21-10 lead into halftime before the Ravens narrowed the gap to 21-19 by the end of the third quarter. Buffalo’s defense forced a massive turnover on a drive that could have given Baltimore the lead early in the fourth quarter.
MARK ANDREWS DROPPED THE GAME-TYING PASS 😳
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/dGHC30xxun
— ESPN (@espn) January 20, 2025
Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews, the man who coughed up the aforementioned fumble, also dropped a wide-open catch on a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game with a minute-and-a-half remaining.
Bills Won Regular-Season Meeting … in Buffalo
These teams met back in Week 11 at Orchard Park and it was Buffalo walking away with a 30-21 victory as 2.5-point home favorites. After five lead changes in a tight first half, which ended 16-14 in the Bills’ favor, Buffalo scored two second-half touchdowns to ice the victory. Head coach Sean McDermott was ultra-aggressive late in the game. The moves paid dividends, as a fourth-down TD run made it a two-score game with just over two minutes to play.
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1 like = 1 vote@BuffaloBills Josh Allen taking it all the way to the house on fourth down to seal a crucial win against the Chiefs! pic.twitter.com/khk4r4fVdx
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) December 27, 2024
That Week 11 victory was Buffalo’s third in four tries against the Chiefs. The Bills also won 20-17 in the 2023 regular season, and 24-20 in the 2022 regular season. But the last time these teams met in the postseason, in last year’s Divisional Round, the Chiefs ended up on the right end of a 27-24 decision at Arrowhead.
Bookmark SBD’s NFL public betting splits to see where the early money is going in the latest iteration of Bills/Chiefs.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
