Opening 2024 NFL MVP Odds – Mahomes, Allen and Burrow Listed as Favorites
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: April 11, 2023 at 4:16 pm EDTPublished:
- Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are tied for the shortest price in the 2024 NFL MVP odds
- Jalen Hurts, the frontrunner for most of last season, has favorable +1200 odds
- See below for the opening odds for the 2024 NFL MVP
Let’s face it. The NFL’s most valuable player award might as well be renamed the most valuable quarterback award. Each of the past 10 winners have been QB’s, and only one non-QB since 2006 has been crowned MVP.
Oddsmakers expect that trend to continue in 2024. Each of the top-19 contenders are quarterbacks, and some of the names in front of the first non-QB are downright laughable.
2024 NFL MVP Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 |
| Josh Allen | +700 |
| Joe Burrow | +700 |
| Justin Herbert | +900 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1200 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1200 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2500 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2500 |
| Brock Purdy | +2500 |
| Geno Smith | +3000 |
| Justin Fields | +3000 |
| Jordan Love | +4000 |
| Kyler Murray | +4000 |
| Jared Goff | +4000 |
| Russell Wilson | +5000 |
| Justin Jefferson | +5000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +5000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 |
| Derek Carr | +5000 |
| Trey Lance | +5000 |
| Daniel Jones | +5000 |
Odds as of Feb. 12, 2023, at FanDuel. Claim FanDuel promo codes to bet on the NFL.
Just two of the top-30 shortest priced players are non-QB’s. If you’re interested in betting on a skill position player’s talent, the offensive player of the year market is where you want to target. Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson captured that honor this season, after Rams wideout Cooper Kupp accomplished the feat last season.
Back to the MVP discussion, where Patrick Mahomes is once again at the top of the list. The reigning champion in the NFL MVP odds, was the co-favorite heading into last season, but this year he has even more company up top.
Fade the Very Top of the Board
Mahomes was tied for the shortest opening odds last February with Aaron Rodgers. 12 months later, he’s joined by the other two marquee AFC quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.
You can make a compelling case for any one of the three. Mahomes has already captured the hardware twice, and is clearly the game’s most talented quarterback. He’s fresh off yet another Super Bowl MVP as well, and helped lead the Chiefs to the league’s number one offense per DVOA.
Mahomes threw for a league-high 5,250 yards, and 41 TD. He also ranked first in QBR and averaged over 8.0 yards per attempt. Mahomes has the luxury of playing for Andy Reid, one of the NFL’s sharpest minds, and the duo will be competing for Super Bowls for the next decade.
That's two for Patrick Mahomes 🏆🏆 pic.twitter.com/NUQTzIBzTP
— ESPN (@espn) February 13, 2023
You can’t poke holes in Mahomes, outside of his price. There’s little value at +700, but he’d still be my preference if choosing from the top.
Allen would rank second, since his ceiling is higher than Burrow’s. The ladder is arguably a better overall quarterback, but Allen has the ability to put up video game numbers both his arm and his legs.
Buffalo’s QB is the only signal caller of the top tier with 35+ passing touchdown upside and 10+ rushing TD upside. The Bills have consistently been one of the best offenses in the league over the past few seasons, and we’ve seen Allen go toe-to-toe with Mahomes multiple times and win.
The same can be said for Burrow, but his stats never jump off the page. He’s yet to exceed 35 passing TDs, and he doesn’t accrue the same type of volume as Mahomes or Allen, which lowers his potential production.
Hurts MVP Odds
A little further down the oddsboard we’ll find Jalen Hurts. He’s a more intriguing than any candidate priced longer because of his unique skillset.
After watching how well Hurts played in the Super Bowl, it’s impossible to ignore his +1200 price tag. Hurts tied the Super Bowl record with three rushing touchdowns, but was equally impressive as a passer.
Hurts was dropping dimes over top of the Chiefs defense and making incredibly difficult, tight window throws look easy. Thanks to his rushing prowess, his offensive ceiling is incredibly high, and if he continues to improve as a passer the sky is limit.
No matter the outcome, respect to Jalen Hurts’ performance
▪️ 27/38
▪️ 304 passing yards
▪️ 70 rushing yards
▪️ 4 total TDs pic.twitter.com/3NYmQZKzFy— PFF (@PFF) February 13, 2023
Don’t forget, Hurts was the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 MVP award for most of this past season. A late season shoulder injury forced him out of action and derailed his chances, but if that doesn’t happen it’s likely him, not Mahomes that earns the award.
Hurts is a unique talent and will also benefit from the creative, aggressive Eagles offensive scheme. He was a much better bet as an extremely long shot at this time last year, but his +1200 odds are simply too good to pass up.
Pick: Jalen Hurts (+1200)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
