Odds Say Trubisky’s 6-Touchdown Week Was a One-Off
By Robert Duff in NFL Football
Updated: July 7, 2020 at 3:21 pm EDTPublished:
- Bears QB Mitch Trubisky threw for six TDs in Chicago’s Week 4 win over Tampa Bay
- Trubisky threw for seven TDs as a rookie in 2017
- Oddsmakers are offering a prop bet suggesting this is history that is unlikely to repeat itself
What a difference a week made in the NFL career of Chicago Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
Tossing six touchdown passes in a 48-10 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Trubisky changed the narrative on his career from first-round bust to franchise QB. But do they project too much?
Oddsmakers are offering a prop bet on the odds of how long it will take Trubisky to throw for another six TDs, and quite frankly, they don’t see it happening anytime soon.
How Many Games will it take Mitch Trubisky to throw his next 6 TD Passes?
| Number of games for Trubisky to throw his next 6 TD passes | Odds |
|---|---|
| One game | +5000 |
| Two games | +1000 |
| Three games | +190 |
| Four games | +140 |
| Five games or more | +275 |
Considering that Trubisky threw for just seven TDs as a rookie last season, they might have a valid point.
Trubisky Seeking Respect
The last time a Bears first-round draft pick was responsible for six TDs in a game, it was kind of a big deal.
That was on Dec. 12, 1965, when rookie running back Gale Sayers rambled for an NFL record-tying six touchdowns in a 61-20 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
By way of comparison, you’ve got to feel a little bit for Trubisky. Not only wasn’t his performance an NFL record, it wasn’t even a franchise record. Bears QB Sid Luckman threw for seven TDs against the New York Giants on Nov. 14, 1943.
The league was also unmoved by Trubisky’s showing. The NFL named Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff the offensive player of the week, even though by throwing for 354 yards and running for 53 yards, Trubisky did accomplish something no NFL quarterback had done before.
Just confirmed this from @MikeGarrigan23 here's the list of player's in NFL history with 6 TD's, 350+ passing yards, and 50+ rushing yards in a game:
Mitch Trubisky today.
That's it. That's the whole list.
— Danny Parkins (@DannyParkins) September 30, 2018
How Quick Can Trubisky Get Another Six?
None of Chicago’s upcoming opponents are particularly bad at defending the pass, which doesn’t bode well for Trubisky.
Chicago Bears Upcoming Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
|---|---|
| Oct. 14 | at Miami Dolphins |
| Oct. 21 | New England Patriots |
| Oct. 28 | New York Jets |
| Nov. 4 | at Buffalo Bills |
| Nov. 11 | Detroit Lions |
| Nov. 18 | Minnesota Vkings |
| Nov. 22 | at Detroit Lions |
New England, Buffalo, and Minnesota have all surrendered eight TD passes, tied for ninth in the NFL. Detroit (seven TD passes) is in the next group, while Miami and the Jets have each allowed five TD passes.
Overall, it works out to an average of 1.7 per game. Trubisky has thrown 15 TD passes in 16 games, or .93 per game. Based on that math, five or more games looks to be the play.
He Doesn’t Have To Be A Star>
With Chicago’s defense and running game, the Bears just need Trubisky to be efficient and they will remain contenders in the NFC North.
Mitch Trubisky is the third QB in @ChicagoBears history to have 8+ TDs and a passer rating over 100 thru the first four games of the season.
Both of the last two (McMahon '85, Grossman '06) ended up reaching the Super Bowl https://t.co/yxhuGfJ74K pic.twitter.com/PhbzZhOMmE
— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) October 2, 2018
The numbers show how effectively Trubisky is doing that, and it bodes well for the Bears.
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
