Odds Slightly Favor Ryan Over Roethlisberger & Mahomes to Lead NFL in Passing Yards

• Matt Ryan is on pace to set a new personal-best in passing yards and is the favorie to lead the league
• Will the Falcons’ passing game continue to produce during the final five regular season games?
• Is there better value with one of the other top contenders?

Despite his team’s 4-7 record and sinking chances of reaching the playoffs, Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan has been putting up big numbers with Atlanta. The Falcons have the league’s fourth-ranked passing game in YPG and Ryan is leading the league with 3,683 passing yards. He’s also leading in the betting odds in a tight race with other quarterbacks.

Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards

Falcons Relying on Offense

While the defense has been ravaged by injuries for most of the season, Ryan and the offense have been humming along. Ryan has totalled 300-plus passing days in five of his past six games.

Atlanta’s offense has numerous weapons with two receivers (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) among the top 28 in receiving yards and another (Mohamed Sanu) not far behind in 39th. In the case of Jones, he’s been helping Ryan rack up the yards all season as he leads the league with 1,305 yards.

Matt Ryan is on track to have the second season by a QB averaging a completion percentage over 70 and more than 300 passing yards per game https://t.co/BFJdHfWUR1 pic.twitter.com/78z92Q5sR8

— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) November 28, 2018

When looking at the chances of Ryan maintaining his lead in the passing yards race, he does hold the advantage in the fact that Atlanta’s rushing offense is almost non-existent. The Falcons rush the ball only 21.3 times per game which ranks 29th.

With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread they’ll likely be leaning on Ryan and the passing game heavily in the coming weeks. Atlanta will have a chance to pick up some wins as their remaining five opponents combine for a record of 22-32-1. However, their next three opponents have pass defenses which rank second, ninth and fourth which could slow down their aerial attack.

They will close out the season against Carolina and Tampa Bay’s 22nd and 27th ranked units respectively, but their playoff hopes could be long done by then.

In a Tight Race is There Value Elsewhere?

Earlier this season New England’s Tom Brady was the favorite to record the most passing yards. However Brady currently finds himself 11th overall and not even being offered as a betting option.

The remaining contenders have all seen their odds heavily shortened since the start of the season but could any still offer value?

2018 Passing Yards Leaders

Both Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes have almost identical odds to Ryan by virtue of being only 19 and 55 yards behind. Mahomes and the Chiefs play a similarly soft remaining schedule as the Falcons as their opponents combine for a 24-31 record. However the Raiders, whom they play twice, offer the worst passing defense of the bunch which still ranks a respectable 15th.

Ben Roethlisberger is the only NFL QB in 2018 with at least 250 passing yards and a touchdown pass in every game, and is one of five QBs in NFL history with a 10+ game streak to begin a season. pic.twitter.com/MgU85Ena9f

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 26, 2018

The Steelers and Big Ben have by far the toughest remaining schedule with teams who combine for a 33-22 record. However, that group consists of only one team who can be considered strong at defending the pass in the LA Chargers, who rank seventh. The Raiders (15th), followed by the Patriots (25th), Saints (30th), and Bengals (31st) will offer Roethlisberger ample opportunities to gain passing yardage.

5,277 passing yards
53 passing touchdowns

That's what Patrick Mahomes is on pace for this season. 😮 https://t.co/Wnd83i4hPc

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 23, 2018

Which QB is the Best Bet?
Ryan not only leads the league in passing yards, but also in YPG. With 334.8 he’s on pace to break his career-high record of 4,944 he set in 2016.

I believe Big Ben has the inside track though by virtue of having a few games which could end in shootouts when you consider New England and New Orleans’ ability to score but also allow plenty of yards themselves.

#Steelers Big Ben On Pace For 3rd-Most Attempts, Passing Yards In NFL History – https://t.co/t8Oxa1clrY

— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) November 28, 2018

Similar to Atlanta, Pittsburgh also shies away from running the ball too often as they only rank 26th in rushing attempts per game. Roethlisberger also leads the league in passing attempts per game with 42.9, while Ryan comes in at seventh with 39.5.