NFL Week 18 Upsets and Underdog Picks
By Daniel Coyle in NFL Football
Published:
- Pride, playoff positioning a factor in the hunt for high-value underdogs in NFL Week 18
- Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, and Los Angeles Chargers among the teams to watch
- Read on for all the odds and trends as the NFL regular season draws to a close
Both jobs and playoff positioning and jobs will be on the line as the NFL regular season schedule draws to a close this weekend. While three playoff spots remain to be decided, NFL Week 18 also provides a golden opportunity for sports bettors to cash in on underdogs facing opponents that may have nothing to gain.
Here’s a look at our top picks to produce as underdogs in NFL Week 18.
NFL Week 18 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts | IND -2.5 | +118 | Texans | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals | CIN -9 | +335 | Ravens | 1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos | DEN -3 | +148 | Chargers | 1 |
Odds as of January 7 at Caesars Sportsbook.
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NFL Week 18 upset picks: Texans Poised to Finish Strong in Indianapolis
The Houston Texans aim to extend their run of strong late-season play when they visit Indianapolis on Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs in the NFL odds. Houston can lock up last place overall in the NFL standings and the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft with a loss on Sunday afternoon. However, they face a Colts squad that is wrapping up its campaign in freefall.
Dexter Lawrence 8-yd sack of Sam Ehlinger#Colts 3 #Giants 31 3ʀᴅ pic.twitter.com/UQWvZEGRoR
— Sᴘᴏʀᴛs 24/7 (@Sports_24x7_) January 1, 2023
With Matt Ryan exiled and Nick Foles injured, the Colts will once again hand the reigns of the offense to Sam Ehlinger. The rookie pivot has looked lost at times in two previous starts and had little impact on the result after taking over for the injured Nick Foles halfway through last weekend’s brutal 38-10 loss to the New York Giants.
The Texans also faced a setback last weekend as they saw a steady three-week surge end with a 31-3 loss in Jacksonville. But what the Texans lack in talent, they have certainly made for with a full-team effort, and a stubborn refusal to roll over even in the face of hopeless gameday circumstances.
Indeed, the Texans have risen to the occasions while facing a trio of elite pivots over the past four weeks, surrendering just three scoring passes, and should have a far easier time containing the Colts’ ground game with Jonathan Taylor sidelined.
Lots on the Line for Ravens in Date with Cincy
There is plenty on the line for both these teams when the Baltimore Ravens visit the division rival Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday as lengthy 9-point underdogs. While the Bengals have already clinched the AFC North title, they remain in reach of the No. 2 seed in the AFC. However, there is much more to gain for the Ravens.
If the Ravens beat the Bengals in Week 18, and if they were to play each other in the Wild Card Round, the site for that game would be determined by a coin toss 😮 pic.twitter.com/5idxxzhBvw
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) January 6, 2023
Baltimore can seize the No. 5 seed, and arguably a better Wild Card Weekend matchup, with a win combined with a Los Angeles Chargers loss in their date with Denver. And if the Chargers do win, a Ravens victory over Cincy would set the stage for a Wild Card rematch against the Bengals with home field determined by a coin flip due to the scheduling nightmare caused by the cancellation of this past Monday night’s date between Cincinnati and Buffalo.
The Bengals are well rested and the Ravens face some serious injury concerns, most notably the continued absence of quarterback Lamar Jackson. While the team has struggled to generate offense without Jackson, they have remained a defensive force, highlighted by their 19-17 upset win over the Bengals earlier this season.
Outright victory might be a big ask, but covering a huge 9-point spread is clearly in reach.
No. 5 Seed in Reach of Underdog Chargers
The Chargers’ playoff fate may be decided before they even hit the gridiron for Sunday afternoon’s clash with the Broncos as 3-point underdogs. Already assured of a playoff spot, the Chargers will clinch the No. 5 seed in the AFC in the event of a Ravens’ loss to Cincinnati. In that circumstance, LA is likely to rest key personnel in the finale of what has been an injury-plagued campaign.
However, should the Ravens silence the naysayers with a big win over the long-idle Bengals, the Chargers will need a victory in Denver to nail down the No. 5 seed and avoid a Wild Card Weekend clash with one of the three powerhouse teams at the top of the AFC standings.
A date with the Broncos will hardly be a cakewalk. While the Broncos’ offense has to be considered one of the biggest disappointments of the season, the Denver defense has excelled. However, the depth of the Broncos’ defense will be severely depleted by injury, diminishing the likelihood of Denver being able to contain LA if the Chargers need the win.
Sports Writer
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
