NFL Week 11 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Underdogs Showing Value
By Daniel Coyle in NFL Football
Published:
- Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears top the list of candidates to pull off the upset this weekend
- Opportunity also knocks for the Cleveland Browns when they face the Buffalo Bills at Ford Field in Detroit
- Read on for all the odds and trends heading into NFL Week 11
The Minnesota Vikings top our list of predicted upsets in the NFL Week 11 picks as they return home as underdogs on Sunday’s date despite enjoying the NFL’s longest current win streak, which currently sits at seven games.
The Chicago Bears’ resurgent offense adds appeal to their positive odds as they get set to visit the suddenly offensively-challenged Atlanta Falcons, while a change of venue adds to the woes for the slumping Buffalo Bills.
Here’s a look at our top picks to produce as underdogs in the NFL odds this weekend.
NFL Week 11 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings | DAL -1.5 | +105 | Vikings | 1 |
| Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons | ATL -3 | +140 | Bears | 1 |
| Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills | BUF -8 | +285 | Browns | 1 |
Odds as of November 18 at Caesars Sportsbook.
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NFL Week 11 upset picks: Can Vikings Extend Win Streak?
Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings quieted their critics yet again with last weekend’s nail-biting 33-30 victory over the Buffalo Bills. With the win, the Vikings improved their record to 8-1, good for a share of top spot overall in the NFC standings.
Despite enjoying a 7-0 SU run as well as a five-game win streak on home turf, the Vikings have returned home to find themselves pegged as 1.5-point underdogs in Sunday’s date with the Cowboys.
For good receivers, this is a career highlight reel.
For great receivers, this is a season highlight reel.
For @JJettas2, this is just a Sunday.
📺: #DALvsMIN on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/b3cWijlOvP
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 15, 2022
Of course, the Vikings can ill afford to rest on their laurels against the well-coached Cowboys, who have amassed a 6-3 record on the strength of a versatile offense and a stingy defense. However, cracks have shown in the vaunted Dallas defense, which has surrendered 28.5 points per game over their past two.
Injuries remain a concern for Dallas on both sides of the ball heading into Week 11. In addition to Ezekiel Elliott’s uncertain status, concerns linger over the fitness of edge Demarcus Lawrence, cornerback Anthony Brown, and linebacker Anthony Barr.
And after watching this team fail in their bid to hold a lead in last week’s loss in Green Bay, it is tough seeing them halt the Vings’ current surge.
Can Fields Sparks Bears in Road Date with Slumping Falcons?
The Chicago Bears ride a three-game losing streak in which they have surrendered over 38 points per game as they get set to take on the Atlanta Falcons as 5-point road underdogs. Indeed, the Bears’ defense has been terrible at times and shares plenty of the blame for the fourth-quarter meltdown in last week’s 31-30 loss to Detroit.
Justin Fields ever since this video
• 9 TDs, 1 Turnover
• 257.6 Total Yards/Game
• 65.3% Accuracy
• 103.9 passer rating
• 31.3 Points a game
• 53.1% Success Rate (#1 in NFL)
• #1 Fantasy QB
• NFC Offensive Player of the Week
• 3 New NFL records— Max Markham (@MaxMarkhamNFL) November 9, 2022
However, the team’s current slide has coincided with what has been a breakthrough stretch for quarterback Justin Fields, who has not only connected on seven total touchdown passes but also run for four scores during the 0-3 run.
That places huge pressure on a Falcons attack that has scored 17 or fewer points in four of six contests. That attack must now pit a 31st-ranked passing game that did not produce a TD last week against the Bears’ burgeoning attack and 10th-rank pass defense.
Change of Venue Bad News for the Bills
The Bills have lost two in a row in heartbreaking fashion, capped by what has to be considered a game-of-the-year candidate in last week’s 33-30 defeat at the hands of the Vikings. With Josh Allen struggling with an elbow injury and the defense struggling at times, the Bills have failed to dominate the way they did earlier in the season.
Those woes are now compounded by an early winter storm that disrupted team practices this week and forced the Bills to move Sunday’s contest indoors at Ford Field in Detroit. It robbed them of the advantage they enjoy playing in front of hometown fans.
The change in venue has not impacted the Bills at the sportsbooks, where they have improved to 8-point favorites. However, the move to a more neutral site has to be good news for a slumping Browns squad that has lost five of six, but which turned in stout defensive performances in their recent road dates with Baltimore and Cincinnati.
Sports Writer
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
