NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 4: Fade the Chiefs
By Zach Reger in NFL News
Published:
Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season is already underway following a competitive Thursday night clash where the Cleveland Browns improved to 3-1 and claimed the top spot in the AFC North by holding off the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24. I bet Browns +3, and I am looking to keep that momentum going into Sunday’s action.
The remaining slate kicks off early on Sunday, October 4, at 9:30 AM ET when the Indianapolis Colts meet the Washington Commanders in London, and concludes on Monday at 8:15 PM ET with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the New Orleans Saints. We have a lot of football left this weekend.
Week 4 is headlined by a massive AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams enter Sunday undefeated on three-game winning streaks, battling for early conference and division supremacy. Elsewhere, the 0-3 Texans are looking for their first win in an in-state clash with the Cowboys.
Keep reading for spreads and an against-the-spread pick for every remaining game on the schedule, plus my three favorite ATS picks broken down in detail for Sunday’s massive slate.
NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
| Matchup | Spread | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Colts at Commanders | Colts -3.5 | Commanders +3.5 |
| Cardinals at Giants | Cardinals -2.5 | Giants +2.5 |
| Patriots at Bills | Bills -7 | Bills -7 |
| Jets at Bears | Bears -3.5 | Jets +3.5 |
| Cowboys at Texans | Texans -3 | Texans -3 |
| Rams at Eagles | Rams -3.5 | Eagles +3.5 |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Packers -3.5 | Buccaneers +3.5 |
| Titans at Ravens | Ravens -11.5 | Ravens -11.5 |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Bengals -2.5 | Jaguars +2.5 |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Vikings -10.5 | Vikings -10.5 |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Chiefs -4.5 | Raiders +4.5 |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Seahawks -7 | Chargers +7 |
| Broncos at 49ers | 49ers -2.5 | Broncos +2.5 |
| Lions at Panthers | Lions -3.5 | Panthers +3.5 |
| Falcons at Saints | Saints -2.5 | Saints -2.5 |
These spreads are current as of publication and are subject to movement. Use our DraftKings promo to back your favorite spots this weekend.
Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 4
Three ATS picks stick out to me this week: Houston as a short home favorite, plus the Giants and Raiders as home underdogs.
NFL ATS Pick #1: Texans -3 vs Cowboys
Houston is 0-3 but is a three-point home favorite. Dallas has posted the stronger offense through three games, as the Cowboys average 28.7 points and 330.3 yards per game, but the stout Texans defense will be motivated to get their first win of the year.
The Texans’ ability to disrupt Dallas needs to be mentioned. Houston has recorded 11 sacks to Dallas’ two, and holds a +2 turnover differential versus Dallas at even. The Texans have recovered three fumbles and intercepted one pass. A pass rush that can generate negative plays and create extra possessions offers Houston a way to take over this game. Houston has also accumulated 65 first downs to Dallas’ 68 and gained 978 total yards to Dallas’ 991, so the yardage gap is narrow despite the scoring difference.
The line has moved from Texans -2.5 to -3, and I am sure plenty of people will want to back the Cowboys, but they are on the road after a game in Brazil, so I believe Houston is the play on Sunday.
Pick: Texans -3 (-110)
NFL ATS Pick #2: Giants +2.5 vs Cardinals
The Cardinals have been competitive this year, but they should not be a road favorite in this game, especially since they are traveling west to east for a 1 pm ET kickoff.
The matchup should be close, and even though the Giants almost lost to the Titans last week, their defense has shown some playmaking potential. Through three games, New York has recorded three interceptions and recovered one fumble. They should be able to limit Arizona’s playmakers. Cam Skattebo has been huge in keeping the Giants ahead of the sticks, giving whoever the quarterback is plenty of third-and-manageables.
I love a home underdog, especially when they have the better defense, and taking the home team with the points is a bet that the Giants’ third-down edge and takeaway potential keep the game within a field goal.
Pick: Giants +2.5 (-110)
NFL ATS Pick #3: Raiders +4.5 vs Chiefs
The strongest Raiders edge is creating pressure and turnovers. Las Vegas has a +6 turnover differential, compared with Kansas City’s +3, and has produced four interceptions and recovered six fumbles. The Chiefs have three interceptions and two fumble recoveries. The Raiders have also recorded 10 sacks to Kansas City’s four, giving their pass rush a potential path to disrupt Mahomes and limit the Chiefs’ extra possessions.
The situational case is appealing, too: Kansas City is playing its second straight road game in an AFC West divisional matchup, while the Raiders enter 3-0 straight up and against the spread. That makes Las Vegas a home divisional underdog with a 4.5-point cushion.
Patrick Mahomes is 2-6-1 ATS in road AFC West games since 2022, another trend pointing toward the home team. The Raiders have often made this rivalry competitive, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they shock the world and move to 4-0, but for now, I’m taking the points.
Pick: Raiders +4.5 (-109)
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Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.
