NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 16

• NFL Week 16 is underway
• In my best bets for Week 16, I am targeting two favorites and one underdog
• See below for all of SBD’s NFL Week 16 picks against the spread

There are just three weeks left in the regular season, and Week 16 features a little bit of everything. As teams try to lock in their spot in the NFL playoff bracket, there is a combination of small and large spreads. At this point in the season, seven teams have clinched a playoff spot and nine teams have been eliminated from playoff contention.

Keep reading for my NFL picks against the spread for Week 16.

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

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ATS Pick #1: Panthers +4.5

The Panthers are back in familiar territory after being favored for the first time in 33 games last week vs the Cowboys. After losing outright, the NFL odds now list Carolina as a 4.5-point underdog to the Cardinals on Sunday.

Outside of last week, the Panthers have been playing good football. Carolina has covered the spread in five of their last six games, and they have played some good teams during that stretch. The defense has stepped up, and Adam Thielen’s return has helped Bryce Young and the offense improve. Even though they are eliminated from the playoffs, they have been fighting and playing hard.

Kyler Murray hearing the kickoff temperature for Cardinals @ Panthers this week will be about 35 degrees:

“Sh*t.” 😂

🎥: @BoBrack pic.twitter.com/WTrrdWrzCt

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 19, 2024

This is also a tough spot to trust the Cardinals. In his career, Kyler Murray is 8-13 straight up in the month of December. In November or later, Kyler is 17-21-2 against the spread. Arizona also has a big divisional game with the Rams next week, so I have a hard time laying over a field goal with a team that has to travel across the country and play in the cold.

• NFL Week 16 Pick: Panthers +4.5 (-108) vs Cardinals

ATS Pick #2: 49ers -1

The 49ers and Dolphins have both had disappointing seasons. Still, both teams are technically alive in the playoff picture. The Dolphins were favored by 2.5 points earlier in the week, but the line has moved and now the 49ers are -1.

I agree with this line movement and like the 49ers in this game despite how San Francisco has looked of late. They have had extra time to prepare for this game and have the superior defense. Against good defenses, we have seen Miami’s offense struggle. They get the ball out quickly and rely on yards after the catch, and I trust San Francisco’s defense to limit the big plays.

On the offensive side of the ball, the 49ers will be eager to forget their last game. They are down to their fourth-string running back, but Patrick Taylor is a talented back and can have success in Shanahan’s scheme. The weather will be much better in this game, and I expect Purdy and co. to move the ball up and down the field on Miami’s defense. I will take the 49ers to bounce back and win this game.

• NFL Week 16 Pick: 49ers -1 (-105) vs Dolphins

ATS Pick #3: Buccaneers -4

The Cowboys looked good last week, but they are still not a great team, especially at home. Dallas is just 1-6 when playing at home this season. Now they face the red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have won four in a row.

Over that stretch, the Buccaneers have averaged 31 points per game and have been tough to stop on the ground. The combination of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving has led Tampa Bay to the second-most-efficient rushing team in the NFL. They average 5.2 yards per carry and only trail the Ravens. The Cowboys on the other hand allow the fourth-worst yards per carry in the league. The Buccaneers should be able to run the ball all over Dallas in the dome.

The Bucs are far from one-dimensional on offense as Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans have formed quite the connection. Last week against the Chargers, Mayfield threw for four touchdowns, and Evans had 159 receiving yards and scored twice. Tampa Bay’s defense has been vulnerable at times this season, but I trust them to get enough stops against a Cooper Rush-led offense. The Buccaneers cover on Sunday Night Football.

• NFL Week 16 Pick: Buccaneers -4 (-115) vs Cowboys