NFL Betting – Lions Big Dogs to Pack in Week 3
By Zack Garrison in NFL Football
Updated: January 17, 2018 at 9:39 am ESTPublished:
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48 o/u)
Trouble’s a-brewing in Wisconsin. Through two weeks, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) have looked decidedly human. They could find themselves two games back in the NFC North by the end of the week unless they’re able to handle the Detroit Lions (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) in their home opener on Sunday (1:00 PM Eastern at Lambeau Field.
The Packers got by Jacksonville, 27-23, in Week 1 before falling to Minnesota, 17-14, last Monday. The offense was widely expected to dominate this season with Jordy Nelson returning from injury, but hat hasn’t been the case so far. Green Bay is second-last in the league in passing (189.5 YPG)Â through two weeks. That’s verging on preposterous given Rodgers’ history and talent level. But the two-time MVP hasn’t been able to throw his receivers open, and they’re not generating separation themselves. Nelson is clearly not 100-percent yet.
Eddie Lacy, meanwhile, has struggled somewhat in the run game (26 carries, 111 yards). Luckily for coach Mike McCarthy, his defense is playing well. The pass rush has generated seven sacks already, and the unit, as a whole, is top-ten in yards allowed.
The secondary was exposed by Stefon Diggs last week and will have to be better against Detroit. The Lions have established a pass-first offense that’s currently seventh in the league in yardage (285 passing yards per game). Quarterback Matt Stafford (53-79, 600 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, 101.2 passer rating), wideout Marvin Jones (12 rec, 203 yards), and tight end Eric Ebron (nine receptions, 99 yards, one touchdown) form the core of a dangerous aerial attack that can both air it out deep and dink-and-dunk its way down the field.
The defensive side of the ball is still a question mark for Detroit. The unit – in particular the secondary –Â was exposed by Indy in Week 1, giving up 35 points to Andrew Luck and company. But they responded by holding (a much more limited) Tennessee to just 16 points.
They still lost the game (16-15) thanks to 138 penalty yards, and three flags that negated touchdowns.
The Lions will likely be without starting RB Ameer Abdullah on Sunday after the Nebraska product injured his foot in Week 2. Abdullah had been solid through two weeks, averaging over five yards per carry (18 carries, 101 yards), and his absence will force Detroit’s offense to lean even more heavily on the pass. That’s not great news against a Packer front that can get after the QB.
That said, Green Bay is laying over a touchdown and this offense doesn’t look like it’s going to run away from anyone. Yes, this is their home opener, but Rodgers and Nelson just do no look quite themselves. Plus, the Lions covered both games last year, are 4-1 ATS in their five games on the road (while the Pack are 1-4 ATS at home), and tend to play their division rivals tough.
I’m not saying the Lions win, but I like them to cover as eight-point dogs.
Pick: Lions +8.
Photo credit: Mike Morbeck, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons.
Sports Writer
Zack is a tour guide whose favorite sports are football, baseball, and golf. He enjoys giving obnoxious commentary during games and hopes to some day write a book about sports. His favorite underdog victory was the Diamondbacks beating the Yankees in game 7 of the World Series.
