NFL Against the Spread Picks for Week 1 (2024)
- Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us!
- I am looking at three underdogs to cover the spread in Week 1
- See our best Week 1 NFL picks against the spread
The NFL is back in full swing on Sunday, as 13 games kick off on September 8. There are many betting trends and angles to look at when betting on NFL Week 1, and I am utilizing those in my three best against the spread picks for Sunday.
Underdogs tend to do well in Week 1, especially when they are divisional underdogs. Divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 against the spread (71%) in Week 1 since 2014. That number gets even better for home divisional underdogs, who are 18-9-2 straight up and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) since 2009. In my Week 1 NFL best bets, I am targeting three underdogs.
Sometimes the bets in the NFL are the ugly ones that are difficult to get to the window on, but they are the right plays. Let’s dive into my favorite ATS picks for NFL Week 1.
Panthers vs Saints Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | +4 (−110) | +160 | Over 42 (−110) |
| New Orleans Saints | -4 (−110) | -190 | Under 42 (−110) |
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ATS Picks #1: Panthers +4 (vs. Saints)
There are potentially no games that are uglier than the Panthers and Saints in Week 1, but anything over a field goal is too many points for the Saints. These two teams know each other well, and the NFL odds suggest this should be a low-scoring affair with the O/U set at 42. That in itself already points to the team getting the points. Then you look at these teams even further.
The Saints offense is nothing to ride home about, especially with Derek Carr under center. Even Alvin Kamara began showing signs of declining towards the end of last season. In the offseason, New Orleans did not do much to add to their offense, so it appears it will be a unit that struggles to score points. They hired Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator to work on the run game that will then set up the play-action passing attack.
Despite all their struggles last season, the Panthers’ defense was solid, especially against the pass. They allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per attempt last season and bolstered their run defense by bringing in Jadeveon Clowney and K’Lavon Chaisson. Carolina has the defense to make it difficult for New Orleans’ horrid offensive line to get any push throughout the game.
Nice little throw on the run from Bryce Young 🎯
📱: Stream #CARvsBUF on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/tM54H7COAA
— NFL (@NFL) August 24, 2024
It will be difficult for the Panthers offense to be any worse than last season. Head coach Dave Canales did great things in Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield, and now he gets to work with another No. 1 overall pick in Bryce Young. Carolina brought in wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette to give Young more weapons. It may take some time for the offense to gel, but they already have a better receiving corps this year than last year.
It is tough to bet on Carolina, but they went 1-1 against the spread against the Saints last season, and divisional underdogs cover the spread consistently in Week 1. Four is just too many points to lay with New Orleans, so give me the Panthers to cover.
- Pick: Carolina Panthers +4 (-110)
Cardinals vs Bills Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | +6.5 (-110) | +230 | Over 47.5 (−105) |
| Buffalo Bills | -6.5 (−110) | -285 | Under 47.5 (−115) |
ATS Picks #2: Cardinals +6.5 (vs Bills)
Another pick. Another underdog. This matchup features two teams that are trending in different directions in my opinion. The Bills lost key players in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason, and their secondary is depleted. Despite their record, the Cardinals were a fun team last year late in the year. With Kyler back, their offense put up points and Arizona covered the spread in five of their last eight games. Now they have Marvin Harrison Jr. to catch the ball from Kyler Murray.
Even though Arizona almost never had the better team on paper last season, they played hard under head coach Jonathan Gannon and were in a lot of games they should not have been. I believe they will be much improved heading into Year 2, especially with Kyler able to start the year. The offense has the tools to score a lot of points against Buffalo’s backend and should be able to keep this game within a touchdown.
The betting trends also point to Arizona. In Week 1, NFL underdogs of 6.5 points or more are 27-13-1 against the spread (67.5%). To dive even deeper, NFL Week 1 road teams that won between 4-6 games the year before are 52-21-5 ATS (71.2%) since 2004. Give me the Cardinals to keep this game close.
- Pick: Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-110)
Titans vs Bears Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | +3.5 (−110) | +150 | Over 44.5 (−110) |
| Chicago Bears | -3.5 (−110) | −180 | Under 44.5 (−110) |
ATS Picks #3: Titans +3.5 (vs Bears)
The Bears have been one of the most talked about teams this offseason. Whether it comes from the incoming trio of Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen or Hard Knocks, Chicago has a lot of hype heading into the 2024 season. While they may have a strong season, Week 1 is a different story. Quarterbacks who are drafted No. 1 overall are just 1-14-1 in their first career start since 2002. Caleb Williams is a unique talent, but that is a telling number.
#Titans Want to keep this trend going against Caleb Williams on Sunday.
-Courtesy of CBS Sports @RamonKaylaWill pic.twitter.com/nMah1BIPll
— Kayla Anderson ✨ (@KaylaAndersonTV) September 5, 2024
While Chicago brought in a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball, Tennessee brought in a lot of playmakers in their secondary, most notably L’Jarius Sneed. Sneed is a true, lockdown corner and will likely cover DJ Moore. The Titans also brought in Chidobe Awuzie and some veteran safeties, making the Bears receivers vs the Titans secondary an intriguing matchup. Dennard Wilson comes over from Baltimore and plans on blitzing a lot, which could make things difficult for Caleb Williams in his first game.
The Titans offense should also be better this year with Will Levis heading into Year 2 with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tony Pollard as weapons. Chicago’s defense should be a top unit, but this is another interesting matchup. Even if Caleb Williams can become just the second quarterback who was drafted No. 1 overall to win his first start, I doubt it will be by over a field goal. The line has already moved from Titans +4.5 to +3.5. I would have loved to get Tennessee at +4.5, but I still like them at +3.5. Give me the Titans to round out my best NFL Week 1 ATS picks.
- Pick: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-110)
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Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.
