New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Spread & Odds for Week 11

Updated: November 19, 2023 at 5:23 am EST

Published: November 18, 2023

The Bills are 7-point home favorites over the Jets in their NFL Week 11 game. — Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hurdles New York Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (57) during the first half of the home opener at MetLife Stadium on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023, in East Rutherford.

The Buffalo Bills are 7-point home favorites over the New York Jets in the Jets vs Bills odds in a key AFC East clash on Sunday, November 19
Buffalo is 0-6 ATS over the club’s past six games. The Jets are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with the Bills
Read on to see who is our best bet in this week’s Jets vs Bills picks

Remember at the outset of the NFL campaign, when the both the Buffalo Bills (5-5, 3-7 ATS) and New York Jets (4-5, 4-4-1 ATS) were top-10 Super Bowl contenders and figured to be fighting it out for the AFC East title? Instead, when they meet in Week 11 of the regular season, it looks more like they’ll be fighting for their playoff lives.

The Bills are the 11th seed in the AFC. They’ve lost three of their last four games. New York’s AFC squad is seeded 13th. They’ve dropped two in a row and five of eight games.

Oddsmakers are maintaining belief in the Bills, who’ve won the past three AFC East titles. Buffalo is set a 7-point home favorites in the Jets vs Bills odds. New York, though, is 3-0 against the spread in the last three games against the Bills.

Jets vs Bills Odds

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
New York Jets	+260	+7 (-115)	Over 39.5 (-115)
Buffalo Bills	-320	-7 (-105)	Under 39.5 (-105)

In the Jets vs Bills odds, the Bills are -320 moneyline favorites, giving them a 76.19% implied win probability. The total is set at 39.5 points. Three of the last four Jets vs Bills games played in Buffalo have gone under.

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Kickoff for this game at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, November 19, is set for 4:25pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by CBS, as well as by DAZN in Canada.

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

Even as the Bills stumble, the people keep backing them. In the NFL public betting splits, the Bills are getting 72% of spread handle and 97% of moneyline handle.

Buffalo failed to cover last week as the 7-point home chalk against Denver, losing outright 24-22. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS over the club’s past four home games. The Jets are 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. New York is 1-1 as an away underdog this season.

Neither the Bills (3-7) or the Jets (3-6) hit the over very often on the total. Four of New York’s last five games and five of Buffalo’s past six games have gone under.

Buffalo is the ninth betting choice in the Super Bowl odds at +2200. The Jets is set with odds of +10000 in this betting market.

Bills Allen Keeps Giving It Away

If the Bills are seeking out someone to play Santa Claus at the team’s Christmas party, QB Josh Allen is making a strong case to fill the role. Lately, he just keeps giving things away. He’s thrown an NFL-high 11 interceptions.

"I don't care who's calling plays. He turns the football over!"@mspears96 won't let people move past Josh Allen's turnover issues 😳 pic.twitter.com/2FCb77KGqH

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 14, 2023

Over the past six games, Buffalo’s QB1 has been picked off seven times against 10 TD passes. Allen has also fumbled twice during this span. He’s thrown interceptions in all six games during this stretch, so you might want to be looking at the over on Allen interceptions in the Week 11 NFL player props.

Allen’s passer rating was a season-low 59.3 in the MNF loss to the Broncos.

Wilson a Menace to Jets

The excitement surrounding the Jets was built around the arrival of QB Aaron Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP. Rodgers, though, didn’t get through the first offensive series of the season. He tore his Achilles tendon in a Week 1 win over the Bills.

That meant the worst nightmare of Jets fans was back in vogue – Zach Wilson as their QB1. And like most horror sequels, it’s been equally frightening.

The Jets offense ranks 28th in the NFL, gaining just 283,1 yards per game. They are the 29th-best scoring offense, putting 16 points per game on the board. They’ve gone 36 successive possessions without scoring a touchdown.

This no-look pass by Zach Wilson 🤯 pic.twitter.com/eGmx5BX7IY

— GhettoGronk (@TheGhettoGronk) November 13, 2023

Wilson is a key culprit in this mess. He’s 22nd in the league in passing yards (1,863), 30th in TD passes (5) and passer rating (74.6) and 31st in QBR (34.1). Making matters worse, his leading receiver Garrett Wilson is questionable for this game due to an elbow injury.

The saddest part for Jets fans is that it’s wasting a stellar effort from the team’s defense. They’re rating sixth in the NFL in yards permitted (307.9), and seventh in points allowed (19.1).

Jets vs Bills Prediction

Allen has been in a deep funk and doesn’t seem capable of pulling out of it. The Bills aren’t covering against any team. In the span of a month, they’ve been outright losers to the Patriots and Broncos.

If Denver can cover at Buffalo, so can the Jets. And New York has a recent history of covering against the Bills.

Jets vs Bills Picks: New York Jets +7 (-115)

Robert Duff

Sports Writer

An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.

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